Jun 16
Tropical Storm Bill will make landfall later this morning along the central TX coast. Models handle the track of Bill differently in the days ahead, but we must continue…
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May 21
Just a quick update here this morning before we post our updated 7-day later this evening. Forecast models are trending drier for the weekend, which is sure to put big…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-word-on-the-weekend/
May 19
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/
Apr 29
Highlights:
A vigorous upper level low will pivot through the Ohio Valley Thursday. This will provide the threat of a shower really at any point through the day. Unseasonably cool air and a gusty wind will also be in place. This will be a brief set back from what, otherwise, is a full-blown burst into spring/ early summer type weather over the weekend into next week.
We’ll keep a very close eye on the placement of a ridge to our southeast early next week as this will mean the difference between a mostly dry and warmer pattern and one that could, potentially, be periodically stormy. As things stand now, models are trending drier, with the so-called “ring of fire” pattern placed just north of central Indiana. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
Simulated radar (above) shows scattered showers dotting the region Thursday, thanks to a potent upper low moving through the Ohio Valley. Unseasonably chilly air (forecast highs in the mid/ upper 50s shown below) and gusty winds will also accompany this system. Rainfall amounts will be light for most and generally under one tenth of an inch.
Our weather early next week will largely depend on the strength and placement of a ridge of high pressure centered over the southeast region. Models today have trended drier for our immediate region and, as such, we’ll follow suit with our forecast above. That said, we note models can struggle with the precise details of these patterns in the mid range and things could trend back towards the direction of stormier times. Stay tuned.
Regardless of storm chances next week, temperatures will be drastically warmer than what we’ve dealt with over the past couple weeks. Ensembles (below) show the warmer than average pattern engulfing the region and a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Mid West.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cool-and-showery-thursday-full-blown-spring-warmth-ahead/
Apr 20
Highlights:
Surface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN. Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing. It’s a gusty day and that will continue. Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period. The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday. Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track. Stay tuned.
Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.
The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend. The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.
Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends. After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heading-the-wrong-direction/