Mar 10
The region has been under the influence of a cold eastern trough month to date with a brief relaxation taking place presently. The frigid March start and anomalously cold east…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/10/a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Mar 09
Good Sunday afternoon! We’re enjoying beautiful weather and conditions will only improve Monday into Tuesday. That said, a potential winter storm looms Wednesday. Additionally, we’re keeping a close eye on…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/09/sunday-afternoon-update-awesome-stretch-of-weather-before-dramatic-changes/
Mar 08
Good morning and happy Saturday! A weak weather system will move through the region and produce a couple of light showers this afternoon, but won’t be a big deal. Rain will end as a couple of snow flakes. Overall precipitation totals look less and less impressive with each model run, which wasn’t impressive to begin with. Needless to say, don’t be concerned by any sort of significant rain or snow today.
Latest simulated radar off the NAM and HRRR shows the band of light precipitation pushing through the state this afternoon.
While we’ll have a brief “set back” in the temperature department this weekend, early next week continues to look downright mild and very spring like. Note our region flirting with 60s. Impressively, a budding area of 70-degree warmth is expanding to our west.
Details remain quite sketchy in regards to nailing down the storm the middle of next week with any sort of confidence. While we’ll continue to sort through the data and gain a better understanding of things over the weekend, we’re confident on a colder regime returning by the middle of next week. Note the trough per the GFS ensembles returning to the east. Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/08/saturday-morning-thoughts/
Mar 05
We continue to closely monitor the goings on towards the middle of the month- more specifically March 12th through the 14th. There are indications a significant late season winter storm is brewing and the overall pattern is one that is aligning itself in a way that certainly has to raise an eye brow. That said, it’s far too early for precise details. Is a major storm possible? Absolutely. Is it okay to pin down a given area for heavy snow totals at this stage? Absolutely not.
First, let’s take a look at the latest ensemble charts.
GFS
European
Canadian
At this stage in the game (more than a week away from the expected event), we suggest investing much more in the ensembles as opposed to a single operational model run. (Case in point just from today alone…the 0z run of the European suggested the interior northeast was ground zero for widespread 12″ type snowfall totals with little to nothing expected across central Indiana. Flip ahead 12 hours later and the 12z European takes the heavy snow axis through the heart of central Indiana on into the Northeast region).
Wikipedia has a nice write up on ensemble forecasting:
Ensemble forecasting is a numerical prediction method that is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis: multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations, or measurements. Sometimes the ensemble of forecasts may use different forecast models for different members, or different formulations of a forecast model. The multiple simulations are conducted to account for the two usual sources of uncertainty in forecast models: (1) the errors introduced by the use of imperfect initial conditions, amplified by thechaotic nature of the evolution equations of the dynamical system, which is often referred to as sensitive dependence on the initial conditions; and (2) errors introduced because of imperfections in the model formulation, such as the approximate mathematical methods to solve the equations. Ideally, the verified future dynamical system state should fall within the predicted ensemble spread, and the amount of spread should be related to the uncertainty (error) of the forecast.
Though this is an event set to take shape close to a week from now, confidence on a significant storm across the east is higher than normal due to:
1.) Excellent agreement amongst the three primary mid range ensemble charts.
2.) The significance of the trough depicted on each set of ensembles.
While there are some differences, it’s highly unusual to see such relative agreement at this stage in the game. We continue to bracket March 12th through the 14th time period for potential impacts from this storm across central Indiana. Many questions will remain unanswered for now concerning precipitation type or amount, but we’re leaning more towards a winter weather maker at this early juncture for the Ohio Valley region. We stress this can, and likely will, change multiple times in the days ahead.
Regardless, we strongly agree with the week 2 temperature anomalies courtesy of the GFS. Should this come to fruition then March 12th through the 18th would feel more like early February then early to mid March. Again, we think the GFS is on to something with the return of the cold pattern.
As we move ahead know that we’ll be here keeping a close eye on the goings on behind the scenes around the potential “trouble” brewing for mid month. As we continue to dig into the details with this potential storm, you worry about finding ways to enjoy the spring like feel Friday and again Monday :-). We forecast both days to certainly have many craving spring as temperatures zoom well into the 50s both days. Get out there and enjoy it!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/05/trouble-brewing-mid-month/
Mar 03
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Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
Mon. |
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5/ 32 |
17/ 36 |
20/ 39 |
24/ 52 |
29/ 39 |
20/ 38 |
29/ 53 |
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Light |
Light |
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Light |
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Forecast Updated 03.04.14 @ 8:22a
Sunny, But Cold…Another day of bright sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon. While this is still well below normal and closer to the normal low for this date of 29 degrees, it’ll be a full 14 degrees “milder” than Monday’s high. You know it’s been a cold winter when you’re saying the freezing mark is milder for a high in March.
Weak Weather Maker…A weak clipper system will move towards the region Wednesday evening into Thursday. While this will be an accumulating snow producer for areas to our west, current thinking still moves this moisture towards our region, but with a dry air mass in place we think precipitation starts to fall apart as it moves in. All of that said, light snow and scattered snow showers will fall for parts of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday. We still think most don’t deal with much, if any, accumulation, but a light coating is possible in spots. We’ll continue to monitor.
Eyeing Another Wintry Weekend…Modeling is still far from in agreement on the evolution of things on the weekend, but the general idea is one that brings a cold front through here Friday night into early Saturday morning with a wave of low pressure moving northeast out of the middle Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio Valley Saturday. With fresh cold air oozing south, combined with the associated track of the low, this is a potentially wintry set up for the region and we’re officially calling for a wintry mixture of light snow and/ or sleet across central Indiana Saturday. The key word is light, but it could still be enough to create a few slick spots across the region.
Briefly Milder; Tracking The Next Significant Storm…The GFS and Canadian forecast models keep our region dry during the early to middle part of next week as a surface low tracks out of the Gulf and well south and east of our region. On the other hand, the European forecast model winds a storm up much farther north and west and presents a heavy rain and possible thunderstorm threat here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. We still have time to watch this and think the European may be a little too aggressive at present, but stay tuned.
What we are confident on is a briefly milder push of air early next week that could send temperatures well into the 50s. Don’t get used to it, however, as yet another polar plunge arrives by the mid week stretch.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/03/a-record-cold-start-possible/
Feb 28
As we’ve been discussing, a significant winter storm is developing this weekend. The set up is one that will feature an arctic cold front sinking south and stalling out across southern and central Indiana Saturday night. Low pressure will then organize over the Ark-la-tex region and head northeast, tracking into the northern Tennessee Valley Sunday and Sunday night. The low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coastline Monday evening. This will be more of a prolonged event when compared to our last two winter storms as waves of moderate to heavy snow move into central Indiana beginning late Saturday night.
This is an ominous set up for more heavy snow across central Indiana- one that’s notorious for heavy snow events across central Indiana. We hoisted our initial snowfall forecast Thursday morning and placed central Indiana under the threat for 6-8″. As of this morning, we’re remaining firm on that idea. It should be noted that the GFS remains very bullish on heavier totals (and consistent, as well), but it should also be pointed out it’s somewhat of an outlier as of this morning as the GEM and ECMWF are more suppressed with lighter totals. All of that said, we lean more towards the GFS solution versus the more suppressed Canadian and, to some extent, European forecast model. Should the other model data begin to trend towards the snowfall idea per the GFS then the initial 6-8″ forecast will have to be adjusted upward. The storm is just now coming onshore and will be sampled better with model runs later today.
Any way you slice it, a significant and disruptive winter storm is brewing this weekend and could make an absolute mess of your Sunday and Monday. A shot of bitterly cold air will flow in behind our departing storm early next week.
Our current accumulation idea and storm track can be found below: We’ll have another update here late tonight and you can keep up-to-date with all of our thoughts on the go on Twitter (@indywx).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/28/more-on-this-weekends-winter-storm/
Feb 24
We touch on the potential winter storm brewing in the Sunday-Monday time period in this video. A significant winter storm is brewing for some and we cover some initial thoughts…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/24/old-man-winter-is-back-did-he-ever-leave/
Feb 16
Quick post tonight just to alert you that early model runs off the 0z suite of data suggests less of a snow threat and more of freezing rain/ sleet…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/early-0z-runs-trending-more-icy-vs-snowy/
Feb 12
There’s no doubt we’re looking at a brief pattern change next week that will result in air temperatures that will have many of you craving spring. That said, the key word in that sentence is “brief” and a colder, more wintry pattern looks to return to wrap up February and head into March.
Before we discuss the return of the cold and potentially wintry regime for late month, let’s focus on the milder conditions. Data suggests we may be looking at highs zooming all the way into the lower to middle 60s towards the 20th-23rd time period. The spring tease is likely to come at a cost as the milder southerly breezes likely result in lots of dense fog and areas of drizzle as a deep snowpack remains locked in place. Flooding concerns may also become a concern next week, especially if we inject moderate to heavy rain into the region. 10-day rainfall numbers do have to make us a little nervous as a blend of model data suggests 1″-1.5″ down between now and the 22nd. We’ll continue to monitor things.
Finally, it should be noted that while a brief “relaxation” of the seemingly unending winter is on the way, the long term pattern continues to suggest a cold and wintry time of things continues overall. Next week appears to be an “island of warmth in a sea of cold” type pattern. Latest ensemble data continues to back this idea up. That’s not saying we’re going to deal with the type of severe cold we’ve seen over the past several weeks, but instead means we’re going to go back below normal as we get set to wrap up February and head into March.
The latest GFS ensembles show the evolution of things well. The “double secret probation” European model also shows something similar.
Note the ridge and associated spring “tease” is replaced with a cold and more wintry looking eastern trough rather quickly. Circle the 24th on your calendar for the potential of a widespread storm system. Far too early for details or questions, but the pattern looks to produce some busy times around this point. Before that we have plenty of weather in front of us to deal with… weekend snow opportunities, foggy/ drizzly weather to accompany the initial surge of milder air next week, and a spring tease by late next week!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/12/next-weeks-spring-tease-is-just-that-a-tease/
Feb 10
After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.
Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.
Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.
You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/
