Dec 04
A fascinating case study lies in front of us as we go through the next couple of weeks. This evening’s video update dives deeper.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-long-range-update/
Nov 21
Boy, this snow season has gotten off to a rollicking start. It’s been a while since we’ve had to deal with multiple legitimate winter threats prior to Thanksgiving, but that’s the case this year. (December is also looking quite active from a wintry precipitation perspective).
As for Saturday’s event, confidence is too low to issue an initial snow “zone” map. The overall idea remains here that the best shot of accumulating wet snow will likely fall from north-central parts of the state into the northern half of Ohio, but the nature of the event will likely result in some “haves and have nots.”
Note the upper low is poised to track along the I-70 corridor, per this evening’s GFS model run. This looks reasonable to us.
With only marginally cold air in place, this is the kind of setup that can help manufacture air cold enough to result in a “thump” of wet snow for portions of the region- especially if heavier precipitation rates are involved. This is also the kind of event that would likely lead to banding features as opposed to a more “uniform” snow shield (hence the “have and have nots” that will likely occur).
At the end of the day, an accumulating wet snow event is most certainly still on the table for portions of central Indiana, but we need to factor in a couple of additional model runs before publishing our initial snow zone map.
More overnight or early Friday morning…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/note-on-saturdays-snow-threat/
Oct 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wet-windy-saturday-looking-ahead-to-halloween-and-the-colder-pattern-that-awaits/
Oct 25
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-busy-time-of-things-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/
Oct 23
Dry weather will prevail today and the majority of Thursday across central Indiana (a light passing shower is possible across northern Indiana, but this won’t be a big deal).
Scattered light showers are possible Thursday night into the day Friday, along with an increase in cloud cover, but again, significantly more dry time is anticipated than wet. Some won’t see a drop of rain Friday.
As we rumble into the weekend, a vigorous upper level low in Oklahoma will “bowl” east across Arkansas and then shoot northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. (Hint, you may want to get used to this kind of storm track over the upcoming winter). This will result in increasing aerial coverage of rain Saturday.
Rain will exit off to the northeast Saturday night and a drier second half of the weekend is expected. By the time all is said and done, a solid 0.50″ to 1″ of rain is expected (we’re currently siding with a blend of the aggressive European and lighter GFS).
After a wet 1st half of the weekend, all eyes will be set on a taste of winter that’s dialed up just before Halloween. A cold front will blow through the Ohio Valley early next week with the threat of rain followed by sharply colder air. As upper level energy rounds the base of the digging significant trough, the first flakes of the season can be expected across the region before Halloween (still will have to fine tune timing). This pattern will also serve up the first accumulating lake effect snow event of the season, including the Snow Belt regions of IN, MI, and OH.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-chances-going-up-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-blows-into-town-before-halloween/