Feb 10
The well-advertised one-two shot of bitterly cold arctic air will arrive mid week into the weekend. Dangerous wind chills and snow squalls will accompany each surge of arctic air. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/10/tuesday-evening-video-update-cold-and-opportunities-for-snow/
Jan 28
Making Up For Lost Time…Many snow lovers out there have been disappointed by the lack of the white stuff winter to date. The cool thing is that the next 7-10 days (most likely longer) will offer up multiple opportunities to serve up accumulating snow.
First things first and that’s today- look for bright sunshine and a frosty start. Temperatures will “warm” to just under seasonal levels this afternoon. A fast moving storm system will scoot through here late tonight and Thursday morning with light rain, possibly transitioning to light snow showers before precipitation ends Tuesday (not a big deal). Far eastern areas may experience a brief period of light freezing rain or light sleet during the onset of precipitation, but things should switch over to light rain rather rapidly even for you. We’ll turn dry and cold to wrap up the work week.
All eyes are on the weekend as a storm system moves towards the region. We have a ways to go and we’ll have to fine tune the details over the next few days, but this has potential to be the most widespread significant wintry event of the season. Stay tuned. MUCH colder air will punch in here early next week and may set the stage for more wintry “mischief” by the middle of next week.
IU at Purdue: 9p tonight
Good news is that for those driving to West Lafayette tonight, you should be dealing with dry conditions. Precipitation chances will begin to go up as we near 11p, or after, for western portions of the state.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/28/now-this-is-more-like-it-2/
Jan 19
Slick Spots For Some; Accumulating Late Weekend Snow? A fast-moving disturbance will move through the region during the overnight/ wee morning hours and provide light rain for most of central Indiana, but areas just north of the city will deal with an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain (be watchful of slick spots if traveling north Tuesday morning). Sunshine will make a quick return and “work” on our temperatures to help boost afternoon highs into the middle 40s (once again :-))! Another fast-moving weather maker will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with mixed light rain and light snow. Again, light is the key word.
Colder, but drier weather will build in for the midweek stretch. The next weather item on the agenda will be a more vigorous clipper system that will slide southeast and result in increasing cloudiness Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by snow overspreading the region Sunday morning. Accumulating snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning and will require fine tuning in the days ahead. Precise track of the clipper system will determine where little, if any, snow falls and potentially several inches. Stay tuned. Regardless of the snow potential over the weekend, the stage is set for a MUCH colder time of things next week…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Longtime viewer and friend of IndyWx.com, Rick Ehrhardt, sent this fantastic Monday evening sunset from the Avon area. Thanks, Rick!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/19/early-morning-freezing-rain-for-some-watching-sunday-monday/
Jan 12
January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:
The snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:
Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana. Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).
A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week. The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.
The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).
While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2. See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:
The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option. Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.
Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February. The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:
It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch. Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods. Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/looking-ahead/
Jan 12
Greatest ice accumulations set up from Indianapolis and points north last night and this morning. Glaze reached just under one quarter inch here across southern Boone County.
The icy mixture will transition to light snow before ending mid morning.
Temperatures will also be sliding backwards through the day. Morning highs in the lower 30s will fall into the 20s this afternoon.
The big push of arctic air arrives tonight into Tuesday and sets the stage for widespread sub-zero lows Wednesday morning. Wind chills will, of course, be even colder (10 to 20 below zero).
We’ll be back later tonight to talk about what lies ahead in the longer term. Stay safe out there!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/12/turning-colder-icy-mix-to-light-snow-before-ending/
Jan 11
Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/11/ice-storm-warning/
Jan 10
Just a quick update to give you some fresh thoughts on the next winter storm that will impact central Indiana.
We bracket the hours of 1p-3p for the onset of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana.
Coverage and intensity of freezing rain will increase as we progress through the evening hours. We suggest hunkering down at home (or at a loved ones home) for the Colts game, as roadways will likely become hazardous during the game.
Early data hot off the press this evening is suggesting Ice Storm Warning criteria (freezing rain amounts of 0.25″, or greater) is met through the heart of central Indiana.
A fresh push of cold, arctic, air will ooze back into central Indiana during the day Monday. We think overnight lows head back into the single digits Tuesday morning and below zero Wednesday morning. Needless to say, should power outages take place, a nasty situation will develop with the new push of cold air.
Please stay tuned to your favorite media or means of obtaining weather information, as this will be an impactful event for central Indiana tomorrow afternoon into Monday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/10/ice-storm-for-some-sunday-evening-late-night-thoughts/
Jan 10
Highlights:
Sunny Today; Next Winter Storm Arrives Tomorrow…While it’s always nice to see the sun, it won’t do much to warm temperatures this afternoon. Another frigid morning (all reporting sites across central Indiana went below zero again this morning) will only “warm” into the upper teens this afternoon.
The big focus of this forecast package has to do with what lies ahead Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Model data continues to suggest central Indiana deals with another winter storm. A model average puts down between 0.30″ to 0.50″ (liquid equivalent). On a standard 10:1 ratio, that would be between 3-5″ of snow, and if that 0.30″-0.50″ all fell in the form of freezing rain we would be looking at a damaging ice storm. As of now it appears as if we deal with the entire wintry precipitation gamut.
Moisture will surge north Sunday afternoon and we bracket the hours between 3-5p for the onset of wintry precipitation. Low pressure will organize along the Gulf Coast and move northeast into the Tennessee Valley Monday morning. At the same time, another dome of arctic high pressure will begin to sink south. The end result should be a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain that eventually transitions to snow through the nighttime Sunday. Obviously timing that transition will be crucial in determining just how much snow and ice accumulates. As of now we’ll split the expected liquid equivalent down the middle and say 0.40″ falls across central Indiana. Of that 0.40″, 0.20″ may fall as freezing rain (glaze) and 0.20″ may fall as snow (which would stack up to a couple inches on the standard 10:1 ratio). Areas north of Indianapolis run a better chance of seeing the transition to snow faster while areas south of the city run a higher chance at accumulating more freezing rain. Stay tuned.
We go back into the deep freeze Tuesday-Wednesday and eye Thursday for the possibility of another storm system.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/10/next-winter-storm-moves-in-sunday-afternoon/
Jan 09
Busy times continue in the good ole weather office as we get set to deal with yet another winter storm during the upcoming weekend.
First, we’ll deal with more below zero temperatures tonight and Saturday morning as overnight lows bottom out between 5 and 10 degrees below zero tonight area-wide. Wind chill values, of course, will be even colder (-15 to -25). Dangerous cold continues with considerable blowing and drifting in the open country. Saturday will be the “calm before the storm” with unseasonably cold conditions continuing, but with lighter winds and sunshine.
Clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday and we’ll begin to introduce precipitation into your forecast as early as Sunday afternoon (not a bad day for two classic back-to-back playoff games if you ask me). Here’s our best idea of what you can expect statewide after reviewing all guidance today:
Some initial thinking would place the following numbers (a bit early to be too specific), and we caution this will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.
Snow accumulation of 2″-4″ across north-central Indiana, particularly just north of Indianapolis. In the “mainly snow” zone, expect amounts of 3″-6″. Ice storm criteria accumulation of freezing rain is possible (0.25″, or greater) across central Indiana, as well. South of the city, early ideas suggest roughly 1″-2″ of snow and glaze potential closer to that potentially damaging 0.25″ amount. Again, we state that these numbers are very early ideas and will have to be fine tuned.
Precipitation should initially overspread central Indiana Sunday afternoon in the form of sleet and snow (more sleet south-central, more snow north-central) before transitioning to more of a sleet and freezing rain event. Finally, we anticipate the wintry mixture of precipitation to end as snow before moving out Monday morning. Timing and duration of precipitation types will obviously determine how much ice and snow a given location sees.
Another big item we want to be sure to mention is that yet ANOTHER push of bitter arctic air will invade behind this storm and set the stage for another dangerously cold period Tuesday into Wednesday (back below zero we go)!
Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the forecast over the weekend!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/wintry-sandwich-sunday-evening-monday/
Jan 09
January is off to a frigid start. After a mild December, January is certainly reminding folks that there’s a lot of winter in this pattern. Precipitation is running above normal…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/09/catching-up-on-where-weve-been-and-what-lies-ahead/