Category: Freezing Rain

Dec 13

Bitter Times Ahead; Weekend Storm…

screen-shot-2016-12-13-at-6-20-11-pmHighlights:

  • Bitterly cold
  • Weekend storm delivers a little bit of everything
  • Cold reloads over the weekend

Cold That Hurts…Tuesday was a snowy day across central IN. Most snow reports checked in around 3″, but there were a few “lucky” folks who accumulated north of 4″.  Not bad at all!

Two pieces of arctic air will invade mid week.  The first piece is arriving on the scenes as we type this forecast Tuesday evening.  It’ll send lows into the single digits to lower teens by Wednesday morning.  Patchy freezing fog will also be noted in spots.  Needless to say, don’t get too confident on area roadways.  Despite the phenomenal work central IN road crews do (seriously, thank you), there will be icy spots tonight and Wednesday morning.  Slow down!  🙂

A second surge of arctic air will arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Everyone gets in on the single digit party Wednesday night and Thursday morning.  In fact, don’t be surprised by a few folks checking in with a below zero report here and there.  Winds will be strong and gusty and lead to wind chill values of 10-20 below zero into Thursday morning.  Heavy winter attire will be required.

Our attention then shifts to a developing weekend storm that will deliver a wintry mix late Friday followed by a transition to rain as temperatures zoom (briefly) into the 40s Saturday.  The milder surge won’t last long as arctic air oozes back into central parts of the state Saturday afternoon and evening.  As this is happening, a second wave of moisture will ride up along the arctic front.  We expect rain to mix with and change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain before ending as snow Saturday night/ early Sunday morning.  This may be another accumulating wintry event and we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Cold, dry weather will be with us as we kick off Christmas week.  Speaking of Christmas week, the bitterly cold air will “relax,” but the pattern remains active.  Despite the relaxation in the frigid times, conditions will remain cold enough for wintry potential leading up to, or around, Christmas…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall:  0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/13/bitter-times-ahead-weekend-storm/

Dec 12

Snowy Tuesday; Bitter Mid Week Ahead…

screen-shot-2016-12-12-at-5-55-48-pmHighlights:

  • Snowy Tuesday
  • Bitter Mid Week
  • Weekend Storm

Accumulating Snow Event…Upper energy will combine with an approaching arctic front to lead to an accumulating snowfall event for many across central Indiana Tuesday.  We expect snow to increase in coverage and intensity just prior to sunrise before turning moderate to briefly heavy from mid to late morning on into the early afternoon hours.  In general, we paint a band of 1″-3″ through the heart of central Indiana, but do have some concerns localized banding features could result in a 4″ pop here and there (impossible to pinpoint the precise locations these bands may set-up across central IN as of this update).  Expect a messy morning commute.

121316snowfallforecastFresh arctic air will pour into the region tomorrow evening, along with a gusty NW wind.  Tuesday’s snow should be rather wet in nature so we don’t anticipate blowing/ drifting issues to result as the arctic hounds roar into town.  However, there will likely be periods of flurries and scattered snow showers as the bitterly cold air arrives in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame and this could lead to light additional coatings in spots.  The big weather story through mid and late week will be the bitter air.  “Air that hurts” is what we’re calling it and wind chill values will approach 20 degrees below zero Wednesday night/ Thursday morning.

Our next storm system is still slated to arrive for the weekend.  As of now we forecast snow and a wintry mix Friday evening.  This will then change to rain Saturday before arctic air quickly oozes back in here and leads to a potentially messy Saturday night-Sunday morning.  Rain will transition to freezing rain and sleet Saturday evening before ending as a period of snow.  It’s back to the ice box we’ve come to know all too well Sunday into Monday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 2″ – 5″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/12/12/snowy-tuesday-bitter-mid-week-ahead/

Nov 22

VIDEO: Thanksgiving Weather; “Interesting” Open To December…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/22/video-thanksgiving-weather-interesting-open-to-december/

Feb 14

Messy Monday Morning Commute; Watching Tuesday…

Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 9.45.26 PMHighlights:

  • Freezing drizzle to start the day
  • Watching another storm system Tuesday
  • Mild and windy close to the week

Messy Monday Morning Commute; Watching Tuesday…After the snowy Valentine’s Day across the region, we’re concerned freezing drizzle will develop and add to what already will be a slick commute in spots overnight and Monday morning. Allow extra drive time and take it slow.

Attention will quickly shift to Tuesday as a vigorous piece of upper level energy dives southeast. We have to fine tune the track later Monday, but this has the potential to spread a swath of accumulating snow over portions of the state Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Stay tuned.

We turn windy, but much milder to wrap up the work week. Friday and most of the weekend will feature a taste of spring as a strong SW flow takes hold and helps pump well above normal temperatures into the area.  Don’t get used to the mild air, as cold will return to wrap up Feb and head into March.

Interested in our consulting services?  E-mail bill@indywx.com for more information.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/14/messy-monday-morning-commute-watching-tuesday/

Dec 28

Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…

Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 7.38.21 AMHighlights:

  • Strong winds and flood threat continues
  • Weak mid week system
  • Much colder to open the New Year

Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN!  Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning.  Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.

Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

StrongWindsTemperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s.  It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.

Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.

We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning.  The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected.  MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.

Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com

WednesdayForecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter.  Note the W NA ridging developing.  Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears.  Think this is the year without a winter?  Better think again, my friends.

Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

MidJan2016

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/28/strong-winds-more-heavy-rain/

Mar 03

Icy Morning…

Screen Shot 2015-03-03 at 7.58.16 AMRough Travel Conditions This Morning…Freezing rain and freezing drizzle is making a mess of the morning commute.  Thankfully, eventually we’ll climb above freezing around, or just after, noon.  Before then, icy travel conditions can be expected.  Take it slow or postpone travel until the afternoon if possible.  By this afternoon, temperatures will climb above freezing and plain ole rain can be expected into tonight.  We don’t anticipate flooding issues locally as rain won’t be heavy enough and temperatures won’t be warm enough to result in significant melting.

Much colder air will blow into town late tonight and Wednesday morning and as a second area of low pressure tracks along the front, widespread accumulating snow is a good bet across the southern half of the state Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.  As of now, we still target areas along and south of I-70 most at risk for snow accumulation Wednesday afternoon.

A much drier, but cold, pattern will be with us to wrap up the work week, including more record cold a good bet.  Dry and slightly milder conditions are ahead over the weekend before a weak system may deliver a light snow or rain shower early next week.

Looking ahead, it appears as if we finally may deal with a much milder, spring-like pattern around mid March.  60s for highs anyone?!  That said, concerns remain that we reverse this and go colder than normal late March.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″ (south)
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″

In case you missed it this morning, we posted an article on meteorological winter and you can find it by clicking here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/03/icy-morning/

Mar 02

A Lot To Discuss…

Good evening, friends!  As promised, there’s a lot on the weather menu over the course of the upcoming several days.  Let’s get right into the details.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 3a-12p for all of the region to account for the sleet and freezing rain situation we’ll deal with late tonight into the first half of Tuesday.  We still expect significant travel issues and overall impacts to the Tuesday morning commute.

Forecast radar shows freezing rain spreading into the region between 3 and 4am.

1Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle will continue for the better part of the morning hours as temperatures likely won’t climb above freezing until early Tuesday afternoon, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast.

Forecast temperatures at 12p Tuesday.

hires_t2m_indy_24We still don’t anticipate many big time flooding concerns as a.) temperatures won’t warm all that much (we MAY reach 40 Tuesday evening, but that’s a big question mark) and b.) most of the heavy rain will remain south of central Indiana.

Here’s expected liquid-equivalent totals through Wednesday morning.

2The next concern is the threat of accumulating snow for central and southern portions of the state Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Arctic high pressure will limit the northern extent of significant precipitation, but, as mentioned previously, energy rounding the base of the trough will ignite another wave of low pressure to move along the pressing arctic front.  As of now, we target areas along and south of the I-70 corridor most under the gun for a potentially impactful snow storm Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

3The individual GFS ensemble members have also been trending north and overall more excited about snow prospects, as well.

7The other item on the agenda is a shot of record cold in here for late week.  Sub-zero lows are a good bet by Friday morning.  Highs Thursday will push for a new record low maximum temperature.

4

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/a-lot-to-discuss/

Mar 02

Icy Tuesday Morning…

We continue to be very concerned about the likelihood of an icing event across central Indiana late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon. A significant snowpack in place won’t allow temperatures…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/02/icy-tuesday-morning/

Mar 01

More On This Week…

It was a record snowfall officially at IND where a storm total of 7.9″ was recorded (5.9″ accumulated since midnight). Many other 8″ type amounts are common throughout the heart of central Indiana- including right here at the IndyWx.com HQ.  Yours truly ventured out through the village of Zionsville this afternoon.  Simply beautiful!

HaleyBillSnow

ZvilleSnow3115

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have a busy weather week upcoming and wanted to touch base on a few items of note:

1.) Freezing rain and potential slick travel will be possible very late Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Moisture will attack from the southwest and run into an impressive snowpack currently in place across central Indiana.  Despite warmer air moving in aloft, surface temperatures will remain cold enough through late Tuesday morning to allow precipitation to fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain Tuesday morning.  It appears as if enough freezing rain could accumulate to result in slick travel throughout the region.  While temperatures will “warm” into the lower 40s Tuesday afternoon, this is a far cry from the lower 50s modeling tried to suggest a few days ago.  Furthermore, cold air will quickly rush back in here Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

2.) Accumulating snow threat for the southern half of the state Wednesday into Thursday. Additional “energy” will round the base of a digging trough over the southern and central Plains states Wednesday. This will help ignite a surface low along the front and temporarily lead to the front stalling out just to our south and east.  It’ll be close as to just how far north the accumulating snow shield makes it across southern and central Indiana, but will require  a close eye in the coming day or two.  We note some of our more reliable modeling placing central and southern portions of the state “under fire” for additional accumulating snow.

3.) Serious and potentially record cold returns this week.  Yet ANOTHER blast of bitterly cold air will plunge into the area Wednesday night into Thursday.  With snow on the ground, it’s possible this direct discharge of arctic air is even colder than what some data might suggest at this time.  As it is already, we think some central Hoosier neighborhoods deal with sub-zero air in the Thursday/ Friday morning time frame.  Thursday’s high will only manage to climb into the teens across the region.  (Keep in mind the average low is 28 and average high is 45).  Just amazing stuff!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/03/01/more-on-this-week/

Feb 27

Snow Storm Brewing Saturday Night-Sunday…

We continue to closely monitor our developing situation Saturday night and Sunday. After reviewing all of the data this afternoon, we still have no real reason to believe the initial…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/27/snow-storm-brewing-saturday-night-sunday/

IndyWx.com