Apr 24
After another frost and freeze across central Indiana this morning, attention begins to shift to wet times ahead Saturday. Most of today will be rain-free and feature sunshine, but this…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/24/wet-saturday-coming/
Apr 23
Temperatures dipped to between 30°-32° for many central IN neighborhoods this morning. After sunshine and an unseasonably cool afternoon, temperatures will fall to similar levels tonight and Friday morning. As…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/23/another-frosty-night-coming/
Apr 22
Highlights:
Tonight’s water vapor loop, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, is showing drier air making it’s way into our region. This will set the stage for plentiful sunshine Thursday and Friday (well deserved, I might add :-)). Winds will also begin to diminish this evening. The combination of winds going calm and clearing skies will promote the chance of a frost and freeze across central IN tonight (and likely again tomorrow night) as reinforcing chilly air pours into the region. Those with ag. interests be sure to take note.
Attention then turns to the weekend and we’ll label it as “half-n-half” for now. A wet, chilly, and raw Saturday should give way to increasing sunshine Sunday. Early to mid next week will provide a new set of challenges and we’re leaning towards the wetter solutions yet again. Keep in mind the drier forecast model sets (GFS in particular) had to come around and play catch up to those leading the way Saturday (EC and GEM). Expect changes and stay tuned.
Forecast lows tonight, thanks to Weatherbell.com, are suggested to fall into the lower to middle 30s. Should the wind go calm then expect a few readings around 30 degrees. We’ll likely dip near these readings again Friday morning.
After a dry close to the work week, moisture increases late Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect a wet Saturday with early rainfall numbers projected in the 0.50″ to 1″ range.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/22/frosty-weather-turns-wet-saturday/
Apr 21
Highlights:
It’s been a chilly and WINDY open to the week. After a day of sunshine Tuesday, clouds thickened Tuesday evening and showers aren’t far behind. We forecast a band of light to moderate rain to move north to south during the overnight period- particularly between 1a and 5a. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. A new storm system looks to deliver widespread rain Saturday. Factor in temperatures running well below average and you have the makings for a rather nasty Saturday (a far cry from last Saturday’s sunshine and 80 degree warmth).
A band of showers will move through central IN Wednesday morning and will be followed by another push of unseasonably cool air. Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows overnight rain moving through the region. Between one tenth and one quarter inch is a good bet.
High resolution forecast models suggest many dip to around freezing Thursday and Friday morning. Those with ag. interests, take note.
Wet weather returns Saturday. The European and Canadian forecast models led the way with this system and now the GFS (shown above) is playing catch up towards a cold and wet Saturday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/21/rain-early-wednesday-morning-chilly-pattern-continues/
Apr 20
Highlights:
Surface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN. Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing. It’s a gusty day and that will continue. Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers. Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period. The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday. Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track. Stay tuned.
Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.
The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend. The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.
Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends. After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/20/heading-the-wrong-direction/
Apr 19
Highlights:
Low pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way. A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall. Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight. Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole. We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain. Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.
Tonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south. Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.
Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.
Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day. The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday. Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.
After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/19/unseasonably-cool-stretch/
Apr 18
Highlights:
This morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies. This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days. Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening. After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning. With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well. Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!
Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!
Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead. Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.
An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday. The model breakdown is below.
The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.
The GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.
The high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.
The RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/18/almost-summer-like-today-before-sunday-storms/
Apr 17
Highlights:
The infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range. Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.
Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana. Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend. Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley. This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.
Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.
As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east. Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/17/warm-now-but-cooler-times-loom/
Apr 16
Warm And Dry To Close The Week; MUCH Cooler Next Week…After a wet and noisy night for some, we can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm really at any time today, particularly across southeastern parts of the state. However, most of the day will be dry.
Drier air will win out tonight and set the stage for a beautiful and warm close to the week. Both Friday and Saturday look to offer lots of sunshine and well above normal warmth! Get out and enjoy, friends!
A cold front will move into the region Sunday into Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be strong. Stay tuned.
The story next week will be one that’s MUCH cooler. The weather pattern will shift in rather drastic fashion to wrap up the month. Gone will be the warm southwesterly air flow we’ve come to enjoy most of the month and in it’s place will be a significant trough and associated northwest flow. As such, we can expect multiple surges of cooler than normal air during the last 7-10 days of the month.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/16/warm-close-to-the-week/
Apr 14
Not As Bad As It May Look…Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions and pleasant temperatures. Moisture will stream in from the south Wednesday evening and nighttime showers will develop across central Indiana, continuing into Thursday (though we can also expect several dry hours).
Friday will also feature mostly dry conditions, but we’ll maintain a mention of a widely scattered shower. Overall, increasing sunshine and a southerly air flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s Friday.
The weekend features lots of questions as two of our more trusted computer models are in totally different camps as of this evening. The European suggests dry and warm conditions (a great weekend, weather-wise) will rule; however, the GFS model is more unsettled and cooler. For now we’ll take a blend of the two, leaning more towards the GFS due to better run-to-run consistency. Stay tuned as updates will be required.
Cooler air will become the story as we open next week and jackets may be needed Tuesday with a gusty northwest breeze.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/14/weekend-questions/