Category: Forecast
Highlights:
- Frigid day
- Accumulating snow Tuesday night-Wednesday
- Late week winter storm threat south
- Active pattern continues next weekend
Bitterly Cold With Developing Snow Tuesday Night…It’s a bright, but frigid start to the day with mostly sunny skies in place. Temperatures are below zero for many this morning and ‘chills have dipped to as low as 20 below. If you have to be out today, layer up and limit time outdoors.
Clouds will quickly be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and snow will develop Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday morning. Model data suggests snow may come down at a good clip at times early Wednesday morning. The initial snowfall map (below) places our best idea on accumulation for now. As we always say, this should be used as guidance at this distance and we’ll have to fine tune as we move forward.
The consensus of nearly all model data shifts our late week winter storm further south overnight. It’s too early to write this storm off, but we’ll trend our forecast drier in the Thursday-Friday time frame for now (that blocking high to our north can, at times, be a blessing and a curse ;-)). Another chance of snow rumbles in late in the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/18/frigid-day-watching-accumulating-snow-threat-tomorrow-night/
Highlights:
- Frigid stretch of weather
- Accumulating snow mid week
- Winter storm potential late week
Busy Winter Pattern…Frigid air is helping usher in the new week and this morning’s snow bursts are setting the tone for potentially “more important” snow events in the days to come.
First things first though and that’s today. Morning snow showers and heavier squalls will diminish and give way to an absolutely bitter feel for the afternoon. Highs today took place at midnight and will continue to plummet through the day. We’ll be in the single digits by dinner. Wind chill values tonight and Monday will reach 20 degrees below zero. Ouch!
All eyes will then shift to an approaching mid week snow maker and this should be a “plowable” event for most. We expect a swath of snow to roll through central IN late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Just as soon as the mid week snow maker moves out, we’ll have to turn our attention to late week. There are many questions regarding the northward extent of snow with this storm, but the overall set-up from this distance has to put a smile on the faces of Ohio Valley snow lovers. The blocking high to the north will be sufficient to supply cold air at the surface as moisture is supplied from the Gulf of Mexico, but it will limit how far north the low will track. Is this an Ohio Valley or TN Valley event? Ensemble data at the moment leads us to believe this will track far enough north to impact our region. We’ll have to sort through additional details in the coming days.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/17/active-wintry-week-ahead/
Highlights:
- Rain develops today
- Frigid air awaits
- Tracking snow makers
Turning Wet Today; Big Cold Coming…It’s a mild start to our Friday, but overcast skies will give way to developing showers late morning, continuing through the afternoon hours. Colder air will push in tonight and may lead to a transition to wet snow before precipitation ends. Forecast models are struggling on handling the arrival of cold air and this will once again be a “now-cast” type situation as we go into the evening hours. When compared to last Saturday night’s event, this isn’t nearly as significant from a total precipitation standpoint, including snow totals.
Saturday will be a day where we’re in between storm systems. Morning flurries will be possible, but we continue to eye an arctic wave pushing into the area Sunday. Moisture will be limited, but with very cold air moving in, it won’t take much to “fluff up” a quick inch. The bigger deal will be strong and gusty winds and bitterly cold air.
Forecast models have really been struggling as of late and our overall confidence on how they handle things the middle of next week is quite low at the moment. That said, Wednesday-Thursday will require our attention moving forward for the prospects of accumulating snow. Another storm awaits late next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/15/cold-weather-gear-required-moving-forward/
Highlights:
- Brief thaw
- Coldest air of the season awaits
- Snow squalls accompany the arctic air
Enjoy Today; New Polar Plunge Coming…While we wait on the next severe blast of cold air, enough SW air flow will help boost temperatures to above normal levels today and Friday. We’ll introduce a few showers into the Friday forecast, so today is the “pick of the week!” Find a way to enjoy it!
What at one time looked like a significant storm system Friday into Saturday is now anything but. A very weak area of low pressure will provide showers Friday before transitioning to snow flurries as precipitation ends. Precipitation amounts will be light with this system.
Colder air begins to return tomorrow night and Saturday, but it’s Saturday night and Sunday that the next arctic invasion will get underway. By now you know the deal- we’ll also contend with snow showers and embedded heavier squalls, along with very gusty winds.
A frigid opening to next week will take place before we eye our next snow maker the middle of next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/14/thaw-will-be-brief-arctic-hammer-set-to-drop/
First and foremost tonight, our thoughts and prayers are with the Smith family. It’s comforting to know that Andrew is now in heaven and the pain and suffering is no…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/12/very-busy-winter-pattern/
A morning winter storm update shows things going along as planned this morning as the region deal with another snow maker in just over three days. Heavy snow bursts are…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/12/snowy-now-wind-bitter-cold-await/
Quiet time will be short-lived as a new winter storm system begins to impact the region as early as tonight, continuing into Tuesday. The Set-Up: An arctic cold front and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/11/intense-snow-bursts-arrive-tonight/
Highlights:
- Arctic air takes control
- Snow bursts overnight Monday-Tuesday
- Late week winter storm brewing?
Bitter Feel; Gearing Up For More Snow…Saturday night’s storm system “split” into two and took one swath of snow across far NW IN while a second (more widespread) area of snow was laid down across central IN. Reports into the forecast office this morning indicate 2″-3″ are common across central IN, with a couple 4″ reports. Thank you for all of the snow reports and photos!
While the snow has stopped, we’ll deal with bitterly cold air and blowing snow the rest of the day. Bundle up and take it slow as you venture out. Temperatures will continue to fall into the teens and wind chill values will fall into the single digits to around zero.
Dry and cold conditions will be with us as we open the new work week, but our next weather maker will blow into town late Monday night and Tuesday morning. We still think intense snow bursts will accompany arctic reinforcements that will send temperatures below zero for some Wednesday morning. It won’t take a lot of moisture to “fluff up” 1″-3″ Tuesday morning. Couple that with gusty winds and falling temperatures and things will likely be messy on area roadways.
Looking ahead, a weak weather system will skirt the area to our north Thursday and could offer up a scattered snow shower, but it’s as we look towards next weekend that things become “more interesting.” Model specifics disagree at this time, but the overall pattern is one that’s conducive to lead to a fairly widespread interior winter storm threat. We’ll have to sort through the details as we go through the week. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/10/active-winter-pattern/
Highlights:
- Rain changes to snow
- Much colder and windy
- Quick-hitting intense snow squalls
- Arctic air
Rain To Snow Late Tonight…Most of today will be mild, but big changes will take place tonight as cold air whips around an area of low pressure that will deliver rain, especially the second half of the day. With the colder air moving in, rain will change to snow overnight and stick in spots. Timing the changeover is key in obviously determining snow amounts, but after looking over morning data, we feel as good as we can about our initial snowfall map issued last night. Additional fine tuning may be required later today, and bust potential remains high.
The second half of the weekend will feature morning snow along with strong and gusty north winds. It’ll be a harshly colder day (don’t let that high around freezing fool you, as that will take place around midnight).
Monday will dawn very cold, but dry, but the quiet times will be brief. Clouds will increase late day and snow will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning. Embedded heavy, quick-hitting, snow squalls will accompany arctic reinforcements Tuesday morning and set up a messy morning commute.
A third snow maker is possible Thursday and then our attention turns to next weekend for additional wintry “fun and games.” Get the idea now that we’re in a drastically different pattern when compared to December?
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/09/hope-you-like-winter/
Highlights:
- Wet close to the week
- Rain to snow Saturday night into early Sunday
- One-two punch of arctic air
- Snow squalls Tuesday
Wet Close To The Week; Winter Blows In To Town…The region will deal with two storm systems as we go through the next few days. Today’s area of low pressure will be responsible for pushing rain showers through the state and while it won’t rain the entire day, it’ll be wise to keep the rain gear nearby.
A secondary area of low pressure will lift northeast Saturday into Saturday night. Heavier rains will arrive into central IN Saturday afternoon and the precise track of this second area of low pressure is key in determining the transition from rain to snow as cold air arrives on the scene. As of now, we’ll focus on a changeover overnight Saturday night/ Sunday morning. Initial thinking paints a 1″-3″ swath across central IN, but before issuing our first snowfall map, we want to have an opportunity to see the complete 12z model suite.
Regardless of how much snow falls Sunday morning, expect a much colder feel and strong and gusty winds as we go through the second half of the weekend. Arctic reinforcements arrive Tuesday and we’ll know it. Expect snow squalls and bitterly cold air for mid week.
Looking ahead, busy times continue down the road. An early look at next weekend shows a pattern plenty capable for renewed wintry “fun and games…”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/08/busy-times-winter-to-make-a-come-back/
