Category: Forecast Models

May 30

Much Less Humid Weekend…

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After a week of that famous summer “heavy” air mass filled with plenty of warmth and humidity, Hoosiers can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend as a much more refreshing northeast flow provides greatly reduced humidity levels.  Also, we’ll enjoy plenty of sunshine for your weekend!  All-in-all, we’ve lucked out with yet another beauty of a weekend!  Get out and enjoy!  As we flip the page into the new work week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as humidity levels do a rather abrupt face and return to the sultry levels we grew accustomed to this week.  Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with such moisture content.  A period of widespread, enhanced, rains may fall late next week.  In unrelated weather news, we’ll also monitor the possibility of something “curious” down in the Gulf of Mexico towards the mid to late week period and the possibility of early season tropical mischief…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/much-less-humid-weekend/

May 27

Another Nice Weekend In The Middle Of An Unsettled Pattern…

The upcoming 7-10 days looks unsettled overall and quite wet.  That said, we’re set to enjoy another beautiful weekend with a refreshing northeast breeze in play.  We discuss this and look deeper into the month of June in this evening’s video update below!

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3" of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3″ of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-nice-weekend-in-the-middle-of-an-unsettled-pattern/

May 22

Indy Weather Recap And A Look Ahead

Wednesday was a stormy day across central Indiana, including damaging wind and hail. Flooding was also a concern in some areas.  Officially here at IndyWx.com HQ we picked up 2.21″ of rain Wednesday- most of which fell in a 3 hour time period.  Here’s a cool image from the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics showcasing the heaviest rainfall.

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Despite a couple of showers (primarily south of the city) later this evening the upcoming three days will be beautiful and rain-free!

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Temperatures are trending cooler when compared to 24 hours ago and as noted here by the 24 temperature difference, the cooler air to our north will continue to push south tonight.

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Temperatures and humidity levels will be below normal levels the next couple days before warmth slowly builds Sunday.  Lows Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s for several communities.

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True summer-like heat and humidity will lift north Memorial Day into Tuesday.  Note the temperature anomalies do an about face from Day 1 to Day 5.  Heat and humidity will be on the rebound for the unofficial start to summer, but, as noted above, should remain in the “comfy range” for race day.

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With the increasing warmth and humidity will come a return of scattered shower and thunderstorm chances early next week.

As we look forward to early June, there are indications it could open on the warm side.  Note relative agreement between the CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System version 2), NAEFS, and Physical Science Division model.  Does the warm pattern stick and hold?  Not so fast, my friend… 😉

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/indy-weather-recap-and-a-look-ahead/

May 21

Damaging Hail Threat Looms For Central, Southern Indiana This Afternoon.

The morning is dawning pleasant and quiet, but things appear to get quite noisy and active around these parts later this afternoon.  A cold front will slice into the warm and humid air mass in place across the region and thunderstorms will erupt in rather explosive fashion as early as the early to mid afternoon hours.  Damaging straight line winds and large hail are of greatest concern.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for an enhanced risk of large and destructive hail this afternoon.

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Here’s a look at what the simulated forecast radar may resemble this afternoon, as always, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics:

Forecast Radar 1pm

Forecast Radar 1pm

 

Forecast Radar 4pm

Forecast Radar 4pm

 

 

Forecast radar 5pm

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Forecast radar 7pm

Forecast radar 7pm

Now it’s important to note not everyone will see destructive severe weather (as is usually the case with any severe weather outbreak), but signals point towards the possibility of a rather significant and large scale severe hail event across central and southern portions of the state this afternoon and evening.  It’ll be very important to stay tuned to your favorite media and certainly heed all warnings that come out this afternoon.

We’ll clear things out nicely later tonight and Thursday and set the stage for an absolute beauty of a holiday and race weekend.  We forecast bright, sunny skies each day along with cool temperatures that slowly warm to the upper 70s for race day, itself.  We’ll introduce the next threat of storms for Memorial Day amidst bubbling true summer heat and humidity for next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/damaging-hail-threat-looms-for-central-southern-indiana-this-afternoon/

May 20

Severe Weather Video Brief Tonight-Wednesday

The region remains under fire for severe weather potential, primarily for damaging straight line wind and hail per latest thinking.  The video uncovers when you can expect this and looks ahead to the all-important Memorial Day and Indianapolis 500 weekend!

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

The region is under fire for severe potential Wednesday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/severe-weather-video-brief-tonight-wednesday/