Category: Forecast Models

It simply doesn’t get much better than this!  Wall-to-wall sunshine and temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across central Indiana this afternoon…  If you aren’t outside now, we are making it mandatory to get outside upon reading this!  🙂  Enjoy, as the ups and downs of autumn will send us in an opposite direction late in the upcoming week.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the evolution of things heading into next weekend.  While there are still a couple of important differences between the GFS and European, we’re growing increasingly confident on a much colder feel next weekend.

Note the latest GFS operational run stacked atop individual ensemble members.  Needless to say, there’s ensemble support and leads to a higher confidence forecast in the mid range of a deep trough carving itself out across the Mid West and East.  Unseasonably cold air would be associated with this.

Meanwhile, the European model is more extreme, suggesting a cut off feature develops across the southeast before helping spawn a Nor Easter and leading to high ground accumulating snows from the southern Appalachians northeast along the spine of the mountains.

Again, there’s ensemble support (left) to go with the operational run (right).

Whether or not we get some sort of cut off low pressure system to really dig in and help generate high ground snow is up for debate and will be the focal point for many for the upcoming week.

Back here on the home front we’re becoming increasingly confident on the first push of wintry type air here next weekend and timing will have to be fine tuned as we move forward, including the all-important Halloween forecast.  The type air mass moving in will most likely put an end to the growing season across these parts as it’s likely capable of producing multiple below freezing nights.

Much more in the days ahead!  In the meantime, enjoy what we have in front of us now!