Oct 21
October (month to date) is running slightly wetter than normal. Through the 21st, rainfall is running 0.52″ above normal at IND. A reflection of cooler than normal air remains centered…
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Oct 14
Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.
Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.
It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.
The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region. The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European. We’ll continue to monitor.
Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.
Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.
Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:
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Oct 14
More rain is in the forecast today and Wednesday as a big, slow moving autumn storm system takes its time moving through the region. Additional rain the next 36 hours…
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Oct 08
Thursday will feature showers and unseasonably cool air. All in all, it won’t be a chamber of commerce day around these parts. Pack the rain gear and jacket! What’s up…
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Oct 06
Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).
Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days. The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday. This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.
After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday. Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.
Saturday is a tough call at this point. The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.
Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.
7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model. Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″. The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.
Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.
Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…
Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region. Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)! Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).
Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region… BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October. Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….
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