Category: Forecast Discussion

Feb 11

Tracking Late Week Snow…

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion
February 11, 2014

Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.

-12/ 1	0/ 27	9/ 36	22/ 30	12/ 28	14/ 29	25/ 39
0.00”	0.00″	0.00”	1-2”	1”	0.00″	0.50”

Forecast Updated 02.11.14 @ 8:00a

Bitterly Cold Start…Take a look at the 8a central Indiana weather roundup, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

INZ030>032-037>040-046>048-054>057-064-065-111400-
CENTRAL INDIANA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
INDIANAPOLIS   MOCLDY    -4 -10  75 N3        30.46R
-EAGLE CREEK   MOCLDY    -8 -14  74 NW6       30.46R WCI -21
KOKOMO *+      PTCLDY   -20 -26  76 CALM      30.46R
MARION +       MOCLDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.47S
MT COMFORT *+  PTCLDY   -17 -20  83 CALM      30.46R
SHELBYVILLE    PTCLDY    -9 -15  75 CALM      30.47R
ZIONSVILLE +   PTCLDY   -15 -22  71 CALM      30.46R

This just makes me shiver! We note temperatures as low as 16 degrees below zero reported at Zionsville this morning just after 7 o’clock. Today will be another brutally cold day, but sunshine will prevail. Arctic high pressure will remain anchored over our region and result in another bitterly cold night tonight, but not as cold as it was last night/ this morning.

Midweek Moderation…We’ll begin to get into a westerly and southwesterly air flow Wednesday into Thursday in advance of our next snow maker. While temperatures will remain below average levels, it’ll feel nice to go above freezing Thursday, albeit briefly. Gusty southwest winds could offset the relatively milder feel Thursday, as gusts may approach 25-30 MPH by afternoon.

Meanwhile, a major winter storm will impact the Deep South and result in heavy snow and ice accumulations. My old stomping ground of Johnson County, TN will likely accumulate 7-10″ of heavy, wet snow Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Tracking Two Snow Systems…We continue to have a couple questions around two snow makers Friday and Saturday. The Canadian forecast model remains most aggressive in snow production, delivering a full-blown snow storm Friday with 4-6″ totals while the GFS suggests we struggle to accumulate 1″ Friday. We’re continuing to go with a blend between the two, and side with the European model for now. This would suggest 1-2″ of snow Friday followed by another fast moving clipper system Saturday that could deposit another 1″, or so. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the Friday-Saturday forecast.

Milder Air, But Wet…Our next storm system will move in Monday and looks to primarily be a rain maker. Who thought highs approaching 40 (seasonal levels) would feel warm?! After this brutally cold winter, it’ll feel just that!

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Feb 10

Watching The Pattern Turn Active Yet Again…

Filed under Canadian Model, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, snow
February 10, 2014

After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.

Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.

Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.

You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…

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Feb 09

ANOTHER Bitterly Cold Air Mass

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, snow, Windy
February 9, 2014

Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.

-1/ 12	-12/ 15	0/ 27	10/ 37	19/ 24	3/ 25	20/ 34
0.00”	0.00″	0.00”	0.00”	1-2”	1”	0.00”

Forecast Updated: 02.10.14 @ 5:05p

Bitterly Cold Air To Begin The New Work Week…A fresh batch of bitterly cold air settled into the Hoosier state overnight and is ready to greet us “smack dab in the face” on the way out the door. We call this “ouch cold.” Additionally, winds will remain gusty this morning and result in wind chill values as cold as 20-30 degrees below zero Monday. Normally, this would be a huge deal, but seems to be “just another day” during the snowy and bitterly cold winter of 2013-2014.

As the arctic high moves overhead tonight into Tuesday morning, we’ll experience the coldest air of the week, bottoming out anywhere from 7 to 14 degrees below zero across the snowy central Indiana landscape. Officially, we’re forecasting 9 below to begin the day Tuesday for Indianapolis.

Midweek Moderation…Though we’ll remain below seasonal levels straight through the forecast period, we’ll notice a moderating feel to the air mass by the middle of the week. The relatively milder air may be offset by strong and gusty winds blowing from the southwest Thursday in advance of our next weather maker. Some concern will be there for blowing and drifting snow of the existing snow pack Thursday for the open country.

Monitoring Late Week…Forecast models continue to suggest we’ll deal with our next winter weather maker towards late week, but we caution timing and the precise track of the low pressure system will have to be fine tuned as we go through the week. At this extremely early stage in the game, it does appear as if an accumulating snow will occur with this system in the Friday-Saturday time period. Stay tuned.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Feb 08

A Snowy Weekend On Tap

Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow
February 8, 2014

Sat.	Sun.	Mon.	Tue.	Wed.	Thr.	Fri.

5/ 24	16/ 28	-1/ 16	– 9/ 12	– 3/ 26	8/ 34	23/ 33
0.50”	1-2″	0.00”	0.00”	0.00”	Dusting”	1”

Forecast Updated 02.08.14 @ 8:49a

Weekend Snow…While we’re not looking at a significant storm system this weekend, we’ll deal with waves of accumulating snow through the period. A period of light snow will continue today, especially through early afternoon and then we’ll note renewed snow developing to our west this evening. This area of snow is in response to additional upper level energy moving off the Rockies and will slide into central Indiana late tonight into Sunday. Finally, there’s the chance portions of central and south-central Indiana see a third wave of light snow Sunday night into early Monday morning. By the time all is said and done, we’re anticipating 1.5″ to 2″ of snow this weekend for most, with a few 3″ reports where snow persists. It’ll be a cold weekend, but nothing as bitter as the past few days have been.

Another Arctic Blast…A sprawling arctic high will settle into the Ohio Valley to open the work week. This will supply dry weather, but yet another bitterly cold air mass. We’ll note below zero overnight lows and highs only in the teens under mostly clear conditions.

Some Questions Around Late Week…Model data is in disagreement with the handling of the southern and northern streams of the jet late next week. As of now, we’re siding with a “middle of the road” approach and introducing snow showers into your forecast Thursday into Friday. The possibilities range anywhere from an accumulating snow event to dry skies with moderating temperatures. Stay tuned.

For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Feb 07

More Weekend Snow Talk…

Filed under Forecast Discussion, NAM Model, snow
February 7, 2014

We’re still dealing with some questions that will have to be sorted out for the weekend’s snow. Latest high resolution data suggests we may see a couple of waves of accumulating snow cross the state this weekend. Namely, we’re focused on late Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. Scattered snow showers will fall during the day Saturday, but shouldn’t be a big deal and won’t impact everyone.

It’s a tough and challenging pattern we’re in over the next 60 hours and forecast models will continue to struggle with handling upper level energy as it ejects off the Rockies and heads east. While our initial idea of a more organized, robust, storm system won’t come to fruition, it’s certainly possible some central Indiana neighborhoods deal with a “few” inches of fresh snow by Monday morning. It’ll be important to stay tuned to latest forecasts this weekend as what may seem to be a rather harmless inch, or so, of snow could pile up to the tune of 2″-5″ for some areas should latest high resolution model data, hot off the press, come to fruition.

Case in point, the latest high resolution NAM model, courtesy of Weatherbell Analytics, paints a couple of stripes of snow across central Indiana and seems to have a pretty good handle on the evolution of things over the next 48-60 hours. It should be noted that not all model data suggests accumulating snow is ahead this weekend. THAT SAID, many times, in similar weather patterns, the high resolution data performed better. We’ll fine tune things and have a fresh updated 7-Day forecast available to you in the morning. Make it a great night!

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Category: Forecast Discussion

Tracking Late Week Snow…

Watching The Pattern Turn Active Yet Again…

ANOTHER Bitterly Cold Air Mass

A Snowy Weekend On Tap

More Weekend Snow Talk…

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