Category: Forecast Discussion

Feb 20

Back To Winter We Go

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Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a

Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada.  Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day.  That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday.  A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.

For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Snow?  That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches.  It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event.  Stay tuned.

Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal.  We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing.  Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  1-3″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

 

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/back-to-winter-we-go/

Feb 18

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

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Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state.  Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind.  It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding.  In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening.  While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening.  The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state.  Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time.  Stay tuned.  Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February.  As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present.  Stay tuned.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/

Feb 17

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

UPDATED021714

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/

Feb 16

Early 0z Runs Trending More Icy Vs. Snowy…

Quick post tonight just to alert you that early model runs off the 0z suite of data suggests less of   a snow threat and more of freezing rain/ sleet…

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Feb 16

Sunday Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) A scan over the latest data continues to point towards an absolute mess of a Monday afternoon.  Our accumulation ideas remain relatively unchanged from this morning’s update, aside from “beefing” expected snow totals for Indy’s northern ‘burbs by 1″.  Most of this falls from noon to 6pm and will be followed by a dry, cold, and blustery Monday night.  After likely a white-nuckle evening commute Monday, the combination of sub-freezing temperatures and gusty northwest winds Monday night will likely lead to another rough commute for Tuesday morning.

** We caution that this will be another “now cast” situation when it comes to precipitation types and their respected precise zones tomorrow afternoon.  Stay tuned here or to your favorite local weather media for updates and potential changes.**

  • Indianapolis northern ‘burbs, including Zionsville: 2-4″ snow and sleet with less than 0.10 of freezing rain.
  • Indianapolis proper: 2″ snow and sleet with around 0.10 of freezing rain
  • Indianapolis southern ‘burbs, including Greenwood: 1″ snow and sleet with up to 0.25 freezing rain.

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2.) We continue to monitor what will be a brief thaw and associated flood risk mid week.  Even without rain, water rise would occur and urban flooding from the combination of melting snow and blocked (from all of the snow) drainage zones.  When you add 0.50-1″ of rain atop the melting then problems could arise Wednesday into Thursday.  Additionally, we’ll need to prepare for the likelihood of dense fog Wednesday as milder air surges north over a deep snow pack.

3.) For anyone thinking spring is setting in during our mid week thaw will need to think again. Latest model data continues to suggest we reverse things quickly later this week and for the upcoming weekend.  In fact, some model data, including the European, suggests central Indiana is under the gun for a weekend winter storm.  We’ll continue to monitor closely…

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4.)  Additionally, prospects continue to grow for another extended period of well below normal cold and renewed wintry precipitation chances in the long term (into March).  Both the GFS and European models are in agreement on the mid to long range pattern with a trough settling back into the eastern half of the country.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-afternoon-thoughts/