Tuesday Morning Rambles…

1.) The month of May has gotten off to a chilly start and given the period of unseasonably chilly air that looms later this week, it’s safe to say these cool anomalies will grow even cooler.

The coolest day looks to be Saturday with highs only in the mid 50s.

2.) In the shorter term, we’re keeping an eye on strong-severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening across southern and central parts of the state. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.

Not everyone will see heavy rain amounts today, but a few neighborhoods may deal with localized flooding issues as slow moving heavy storms potentially train over communities. Where this happens, 2″+ rain totals are a good bet by midnight.

3.) Forecast models remain in a state of disagreement concerning late this weekend into early next week. The GFS is particularly bullish on the idea of wet (heavy rain threat), chilly times whereas the European is much drier (and warmer). We’ll keep an eye on things and hope for consistency this afternoon. Speaking of this afternoon, we’ll have our updated 7-day posted later today! Make it a great Tuesday.

Bill McMillan May 10, 2016 1 Comment Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Rambles, Weekly Outlook

Monday Morning Video Update: Strong Storms Tuesday; Much Colder End To The Week…

An unsettled week ahead will feature periods of more widespread rain and stronger storms at times between now and Wednesday. We’re focused on Tuesday for the potential of strong to…

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Bill McMillan May 9, 2016 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos

Hang In There Friends…

An upper level low is still impacting our weather this morning, but this feature isn’t wasting any time scooting southeast. In fact, by this afternoon, we should be looking at increasingly sunny skies and temperatures that will slowly recover from the chilly, raw readings of this morning.

With the increasing sunshine, temperatures will recover into the lower 60s today (still below average, but an improvement).

High pressure will build into the region to wrap up the work week and provide a delightful close to what’s been a rather gloomy week. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures into the lower 70s are on tap.

That said, this is still an active weather pattern that will require close attention in the week ahead.

The anamalous trough will “relax” and give way to transient ridging, but there are indications of another trough setting up Days 8-10. Giving the pattern, it’s likely that the aforementioned trough will be deeper (more significant) than what model data currently portrays (image 3).

It’s a rather wet pattern, as well. 7-day rain numbers of 1″-1.5″ seems reasonable with locally heavier totals.

Our next chance of rain comes Saturday in the form of scattered, mostly PM variety, storms.

More later! Make it a great Thursday!

Bill McMillan May 5, 2016 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Damp, Chilly Tuesday…

Heavy drizzle and patchy light rain are falling across central IN this morning along with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. It’s a raw morning. As we move forward, areas of light rain and drizzle will remain in the forecast into the early afternoon before we potentially brighten the skies in areas during the afternoon. That sun may be just enough to pop a shower or (non-severe) storm during the afternoon.

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town Wednesday and will be accompanied by a band of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning. Once this passes, expect breezy conditions with steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day. Pack a jacket tomorrow as temperatures remain in the lower to middle 50s.

Rainfall amounts should be in the 0.25″-0.50″ range between now and Wednesday afternoon.

We’ll dry things out and warm up as we progress through the latter portions of the work week and the weekend. Beforehand, look for lows in the upper 30s Thursday morning.

As we look ahead, shower and scattered thunderstorm chances will be on the increase Saturday evening. We’ll “sure up” timing in the days ahead.

Bill McMillan May 3, 2016 No Comments Drizzle, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Monday Afternoon Video Update…

It’s a cool, gloomy open to the work week. We’ll turn even cooler by mid week, BUT changes are coming that promise increasingly warm and sunny conditions by the weekend.…