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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/
Nov 11
Big Time Wind Event; Active Pattern…
Highlights:
- Nighttime storms
- Prolonged wind event
- Eyeing our next storm
The morning has dawned with mid and high level clouds painting the back drop as the sun rises. We’ve shared several photos on our Twitter page (@IndyWx) of the beautiful sun rise. Thank you and keep ’em coming!
Low pressure is moving off the Rockies this morning (where another hefty snow dump took place overnight) and into the Plains. The low will then track into the Great Lakes Thursday. As the low moves northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through our neck of the woods Thursday morning. We still bracket tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday for thunderstorm potential. See the simulated radar valid at 10p this evening, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is lacking with this storm and moisture return isn’t impressive. This is good news as it will reduce the amount of severe weather we’ll see. However, it should be noted that it won’t take much to bring down a severe wind report or two and that is our primary concern tonight with any storm.
CAPE- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Surface Dew Points- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Precipitable Water- courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Because of the lack of moisture return and the overall speed of the system, rainfall tonight won’t be impressive for most (0.25″-0.50″ on average) with the exception of localized stronger storms.
What will be impressive is the wind, even without storms. A Wind Advisory has been issued for late tonight and Thursday, via the National Weather Service out of Indianapolis, and rightfully so. We wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of this is upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today or tonight as gusts of 50 MPH+ will be a concern through the day Thursday as our low occludes over the Lakes.
A period of drier air will return to wrap up the week and head into early next week, but we eye another big storm system for the middle of next week. Forecast models differ on precise details, as you’d expect at this juncture.
The GFS (above) isn’t shying away from another significant impact event. The European isn’t as bullish early on. All mid range models do produce moderate to heavy rains over the region. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/big-time-wind-event-active-pattern/
Nov 10
Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…
Highlights:
- Wednesday night storms
- Very windy to close the week
- Colder Friday
The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).
Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
We still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall. Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event. Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.
Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday. As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time. This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.
As mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm. We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms. Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.
What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH). Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂
Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November. We note the SOI is actually positive right now. This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).
The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks. Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/
Nov 09
Monday Morning Video Update…
We continue to eye Wednesday night for severe weather potential. Due to timing, as of now the greatest concern is thunderstorms that contain damaging straight line winds. If traveling west…
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Nov 06
Video Update: Chilly Weekend; Severe Potential Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-update-chilly-weekend-severe-potential-next-week/