Category: Forecast Discussion

Feb 25

Tracking A Late Weekend Winter Storm

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Forecast Updated 02.26.14 @ 7:43a

Frigid Midweek…A brutally cold air mass is blowing into the region this morning, especially considering we’re nearly into March!  This is laying the groundwork for a snowy weekend, but we’ll get to that in a bit.  Forecast highs average at 44 degrees this time of the year and today’s high will be lucky to reach 18.  EVEN COLDER air blows in late tonight into early Thursday and will result in continued dangerous below zero wind chill values.  Needless to say, plan to bundle up upon heading outdoors.  While the calendar may suggest spring is near, Mother Nature and Old Man Winter have other ideas.

Late Week Light Snow…A warm front will lift north through the region Saturday morning and will be responsible for producing a round of light snow Friday night into Saturday AM.  As of now, early numbers suggest around an inch of snow is possible, but we’ll continue to monitor things and update as needed.

Late Weekend Winter Storm…While details are still far from etched in stone, there’s no doubt behind a significant winter storm brewing for the second half of the weekend.  This storm will have significant snow for portions of central Indiana and significant icing potential for others.  As of now, we anticipate air cold enough to support frozen, or freezing, precipitation across our immediate viewing area of central Indiana.  All of that said, we caution that the track and intensity of the storm will likely change between now and Sunday and we’ll continue to keep close tabs on this event.  Early numbers are impressive as far as precipitation goes with liquid equivalent amounts around 1″ churned out, on average, from a variety of computers models.

Arctic Air Reloads…We may be into meteorological spring next week, but Old Man Winter continues his relentless ways that we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past several months. Fresh arctic air will plunge into central Indiana’s potentially snow packed ground early next week and could ultimately help yield below zero air by the middle of next week.  What an impressive winter.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 4-8″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-a-late-weekend-winter-storm/

Feb 23

Looking Ahead; Cold Pattern Reloads.

We’ll have your updated 7-Day forecast posted later today.

The latest mid and long range guidance continues to suggest we’re heading into another prolonged period of below normal temperatures.

Ensemble data (below) shows ridging in the northeast Pacific, extending into Alaska and this pattern has been one of the big reasons as to why we’ve dealt with so many arctic intrusions this winter.  (The first image is a look at the upper air pattern dated Feb. 26th and the second is dated March 11th).

Ridging in this particular part of the globe often times dislodges the cold air and someone “down stream” has to deal with below normal air.  The recipient of being “down stream” has just so happened to be the upper Mid West into the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern half of the country this winter.  That doesn’t show any signs of changing over the next couple weeks, at least.  It’s possible we could deal with a day or two of milder weather thrown in the mix, but the overwhelming majority of the upcoming couple weeks looks much colder than normal.

GEFS1GEFS2

The result is a continuation of much below normal cold in our part of the country.  The following graphics illustrate temperature anomalies (in celsius) centered on 5 days between Feb. 23rd-28th and March 6th-11th.  Below normal temperatures continue.

GEFS3GEFS4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A couple of additional thoughts around the upcoming cold pattern: While we can’t show the images here (license issues), the “secret” European weeklies and ensemble data continues the cold, stormy regime across the east for the better part of the upcoming 30 days, with a couple of brief periods of milder, “calmer” weather.

Finally, the CFSv2 suggests the cold regime continues, as well.  The first image shows upcoming weeks 1 and 2 and the second shows temperature anomalies weeks 3 and 4.  Note the CFSv2 shows southeast ridging developing towards the end of the period, potentially suggesting a big fight goes on between the cold to the north and the budding spring conditions to the south- a stormy suggestion…

CFSv2Wk1:2CFSv2Wk3:4

In closing, it’s important to note that all of the fancy graphics shown above are simply model guidance and it’s up to us, the forecasters, to interpret the data the best way possible to put together the most accurate mid to long range ideas for you, the viewer.  While nothing is a guarantee in this business, it does appear as if chances are quite high that our region deals with another few weeks of colder than normal conditions and potentially active weather ahead.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-cold-pattern-reloads/

Feb 20

Back To Winter We Go

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               31/ 43 31/ 44 26/ 34 18/ 32 19/ 26 8/ 22 7/ 19  Light –…

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Feb 18

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

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Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state.  Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind.  It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding.  In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening.  While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening.  The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state.  Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time.  Stay tuned.  Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February.  As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present.  Stay tuned.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/

Feb 17

Messy Afternoon Commute Ahead

Latest thinking around our wintry mess due in here this afternoon places a heavier emphasis on sleet and freezing rain for central Indiana, with accumulating snow still a possibility, especially north of Indianapolis.

Overnight model data trended warmer (especially aloft) and latest high resolution, short-term, data continues that trend this morning.  While an initial push of moisture has led to snow and sleet reports already this morning, it’s around 1 o’clock when we think the true slug of moisture reaches the city, itself.  While snow can’t completely be ruled out, I’m more concerned with sleet and freezing rain potential for Indianapolis.

Officially, we’re calling for 1″ of snow/ sleet with up to two tenths of freezing rain for the city, itself.  Further north, a band of 1-3″ of snow/ sleet can be expected with only light freezing rain.  From Benton County over to Wells County, we anticipate mostly a snow event with 3-6″ of snow expected.

All of that said, we leave you with this humble disclaimer; this is easily the most difficult forecast we’ve had to make this winter.  Several factors will come into play to ultimately determine the precise precipitation zones, including track and strength of the low, precipitation rates, amount of evaporative cooling, etc.  This is a low confidence forecast when it comes to precipitation types, but our best idea is below for your viewing pleasure.  Needless to say, regardless of what type of precipitation you see this afternoon, prepare for another nasty afternoon and evening commute.  Stay safe.

UPDATED021714

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/messy-afternoon-commute-ahead/