Category: Forecast Discussion

Cold Pattern Continues…

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

Mon.

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5/ 32

17/ 36

20/ 39

24/ 52

29/ 39

20/ 38

29/ 53

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Forecast Updated 03.04.14 @ 8:22a

Sunny, But Cold…Another day of bright sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon.  While this is still well below normal and closer to the normal low for this date of 29 degrees, it’ll be a full 14 degrees “milder” than Monday’s high.  You know it’s been a cold winter when you’re saying the freezing mark is milder for a high in March.

Weak Weather Maker…A weak clipper system will move towards the region Wednesday evening into Thursday.  While this will be an accumulating snow producer for areas to our west, current thinking still moves this moisture towards our region, but with a dry air mass in place we think precipitation starts to fall apart as it moves in.  All of that said, light snow and scattered snow showers will fall for parts of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday.  We still think most don’t deal with much, if any, accumulation, but a light coating is possible in spots.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Eyeing Another Wintry Weekend…Modeling is still far from in agreement on the evolution of things on the weekend, but the general idea is one that brings a cold front through here Friday night into early Saturday morning with a wave of low pressure moving northeast out of the middle Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio Valley Saturday.  With fresh cold air oozing south, combined with the associated track of the low, this is a potentially wintry set up for the region and we’re officially calling for a wintry mixture of light snow and/ or sleet across central Indiana Saturday.  The key word is light, but it could still be enough to create a few slick spots across the region.

Briefly Milder; Tracking The Next Significant Storm…The GFS and Canadian forecast models keep our region dry during the early to middle part of next week as a surface low tracks out of the Gulf and well south and east of our region.  On the other hand, the European forecast model winds a storm up much farther north and west and presents a heavy rain and possible thunderstorm threat here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  We still have time to watch this and think the European may be a little too aggressive at present, but stay tuned.

What we are confident on is a briefly milder push of air early next week that could send temperatures well into the 50s.  Don’t get used to it, however, as yet another polar plunge arrives by the mid week stretch.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″

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New Work Week; Same Cold Feel…

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thr.

Fri.

Sat.

Sun.

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6/ 19

5/ 30

13/ 34

20/ 37

24/ 47

28/ 42

24/ 39

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Forecast Updated 03.03.14 @ 7:55a

Brrrrrr…It may be a new work week, but the overall weather theme will remain an all-too-familiar one- COLD!  A big, sprawling, area of high pressure will anchor itself over the region and result in temperatures well below where we would typically expect to be for early March.  Instead of a high in the upper 40s, we’ll struggle to reach the 20 degree mark today.  We’ll follow that up with yet another frigid night into Tuesday morning as lows sink to the single digits once more.  Outlying ‘burbs may approach zero tonight and we call that “ridiculously cold” for early March :-).

Midweek Moderation, But Still Below Normal…Temperatures will moderate by the middle of the week, though remain below normal.  We’re monitoring a weak weather system that will scoot north of the region Wednesday and this could move close enough to lead to an increase in cloudiness and a potential flurry or light snow shower Wednesday evening, but most should remain dry.

Keeping An Eye On The Weekend…We’ll continue to closely monitor next weekend.  While model data certainly has yet to reach a consensus, we look to have somewhat of an unsettled weekend- at least on the front end.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune things Friday evening into Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast:  0.25″

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For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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A Note On Today And A Look Ahead To “Tomorrow.”

Without question, snowfall numbers didn’t reach our initial forecast of 6-8″ made Thursday.  We revised our projected accumulation numbers last night to the 2-5″ range and that did just fine.…

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Accumulating Ice And Snow Then Frigid

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat.               16/ 23 9/ 19 4/ 28 10/ 30 18/ 38 27/ 50 22/ 37  Moderate –…

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Some Late Night Thoughts…

It’s been a long day, but we’d like nothing more than to be right here in the good ole forecast office, digging into data for our next winter storm with you.  While “part 2” of the storm remains just offshore as of this post, it’ll likely be trudging onshore by the time you read this early Saturday morning.  That said, the initial wave of accumulating snow (and for some, ice) will arrive as early as late Saturday night/ wee morning hours (well before sunrise) Sunday in the form of an overrunning event- where comparably warmer, more moist air is lifted up and overruns the cold air at the surface.

Early ideas suggest we undergo a period of moderate to heavy wintry precipitation as early as 3-ish Sunday morning, extending into the late morning hours.  Particularly, we bracket the hours of 3am to 10am Sunday for the initial wave of wintry weather.  This will be a mixed bag of precipitation, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain across central Indiana.  An early look at the high resolution simulated radar courtesy of the NAM shows this well- valid 7am Sunday morning.  Image is courtesy of the fine folks over at Weatherbell Analytics.

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After a “lull” in the accumulating wintry precipitation from late morning/ early afternoon Sunday, we’ll likely deal with another round of moderate to heavy accumulating wintry precipitation Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  It’s important to note this is where we have more questions than answers in regards to the interaction of a juiced up southern stream of the jet- infused by the powerhouse late season winter storm (still spinning just off shore as of this update).  Powerful arctic high pressure will be sinking south and could result in a more suppressed track of the low. Should this be the correct scenario snow totals would likely be towards the lower end of the ongoing 6-8″ forecast we hoisted back on Thursday morning.  That said, one can’t ignore the pattern as it’s one notorious for heavy snow producers across central Indiana.  A scan over heavy snow events of the past here across central Indiana show similar setups that have yielded impressive snow totals.  Just as the potential of suppression has to be noted, so should the potential of a slightly more north trend that models may currently see as time gets closer.

In closing tonight, 12z model data should really begin to hone in on the area most likely to see heaviest snow and/ or ice accumulations.  Our ongoing forecast of storm totals remains unchanged for now of 6-8″.  Stay tuned, friends.

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