Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

Storms May Rumble In Later Today; Cooler For Midweek…

We’ve enjoyed a warm and beautiful weekend, and most of Sunday will follow that pleasant them.  However, a cold front will drop south into the state later today and this “trigger” mechanism, combined with the heating of the day, will likely spark a broken line of thunderstorms.  These storms will sink south into central Indiana later this evening, and a couple of storms could become strong.

Modeled radar shows how things may evolve later this evening, including time stamps at 5p, 8p, and 10p.

Most significant rainfall will occur across the northern half of the state, including a couple of 1″+ totals in the heavier storms.

As we push into the midweek stretch, cooler, refreshing air will take up residence across the region.  Temperatures will run significantly cooler than average, including lows in the upper 40s for some Wednesday and Thursday morning and highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Dry weather will continue, as well.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

JMA Weeklies: Cool Gives Way To More Seasonal Conditions…

The new JMA Weeklies are in and the highlights include:

  • Unseasonably cool conditions Week 1
  • Anomalously wet across the Southeast
  • Warmer, more seasonal early-summer weather arrives

Week 1:

The pattern is dominated by an eastern trough and western ridge. Accordingly, cooler than average conditions will dominate the central and eastern portions of the country.  Very wet conditions should dominate the southern and eastern tier of the country (heaviest rains should fall east and south of Indiana).

Week 2:

The pattern begins to “relax” a bit, locally, with warmer conditions set to develop.  We note three areas of anomalously wet weather- west coast, northern Plains and Southeast.

Weeks 3-4

While the pattern doesn’t seem to promote any sort of significant heat or cool (relative to normal), this is certainly a warmer look, overall, to close the month than how we’re starting.  This look would suggest warm, seasonal, summer conditions locally with average precipitation.  Wet weather continues to dominate the pattern across the south and begins to emerge into the central.

No Comments AG Report, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Challenging Northwest Flow Remains…

The region will remain in a challenging northwest flow for the balance of the upcoming 10-14 day period.  This can play havoc with forecast models, particularly from a timing standpoint.  In short, expect a continuation of active weather, including wetter and cooler than normal conditions.

Another weak disturbance will kick up a few scattered showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm tonight.  Similar to Monday, this will come after a gorgeous day.

Forecast radar at 1a Wednesday shows scattered showers still impacting portions of the state:

The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend.  Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.

There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.

Longer-term, modeling continues to suggest a cooler than normal pattern persists as we push through the first half of June.

In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Latest Thoughts On Memorial Day And Race Weekend…

As the race weekend and Memorial Day draw ever-closer, data is able to pick up on some of the specifics associated with our weather for the all-important long weekend.

After scrolling through the data this evening, it appears as if we need to bracket late Friday night-Saturday morning and again late Saturday into Sunday morning for the potential of two rounds of gusty storms.  Some of these storms could reach strong to severe levels, and the Storm Prediction Center continues to outline central Indiana for a Slight Risk Saturday (large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, locally).

Despite having to dodge a couple rounds of gusty storms this weekend, we want to stress that the majority of the holiday weekend should feature rain-free hours, and certainly isn’t worth cancelling any outdoor plans.  In fact, after a beautiful Carb Day, most of the daytime hours both Saturday and Sunday should be rain and storm free.  Have a means of getting the latest weather information, but plan to enjoy long stretches of rain-free hours this weekend.

Much more later!

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Hail, Memorial Day weekend, Race Weekend, Severe Weather, T-storms