1.) Matthew is rumbling towards the east coast of FL this evening and data continues to suggest a landfall near West Palm Beach late tonight or during the predawn hours Friday. Regardless, an extended period of hurricane conditions, beach erosion, surge, and heavy rain await the FL peninsula.
For the Space Coast region, this very well could be the most significant hurricane the area has seen. Our thoughts and prayers continue for our family and friends in Matthew’s path.
Radar around 8p Thursday.
Forecast radar 1a Friday.
Most model data likes the “loop de loop” idea and potentially brings Matthew back in for a second FL landfall early next week (in a much weaker state, thankfully, due to upwelling and shear).
2.) A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods as we put a wrap on the work week. While moisture is limited with the front, a much cooler air mass will greet us out the door Saturday morning. A light shower is possible Friday afternoon or evening, but this won’t be a big deal and most high school football games will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday morning will be in the 40s with lingering low clouds and areas of fog possible. We should shake the morning low cloudiness and allow for sunshine most of the day. Temperatures will remain crisp; generally in the lower to middle 60s for highs.
A chilly start is anticipated Saturday morning.
The weekend into early next week will remain pleasant, with chilly, clear nights and lots of sunshine during the day, along with cool afternoon highs.
3.) The longer term pattern through at least the middle of October is one that features anomalous warmth and dry conditions. In fact, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility for afternoon highs to reach close to 80 once again towards Day 10…. We shall see.
We warm back up above average in the 6-10 Day period
A mainly dry pattern continues
In addition to the central PAC anomalies, we also are keying in on some other items of interest in the overall SST configuration:
The SST CA model is quickly becoming one of our more trusted seasonal forecast models. We note how it becomes increasingly bullish on a central and eastern trough as winter wears on (by the way, this is likely to go deep into spring this year, too).
Cold overwhelms the pattern and when you combine it with the active storm track (noted by the green hues, suggesting above normal precipitation through our neck of the woods), confidence is continuing to grow for an above normal snow season.
The SST configuration on the JAMSTEC would suggest a cold, stormy set-up, locally. That said, while it sees the above average precipitation, it’s awfully warm at the surface.
The NMME (to no surprise…) would suggest a very warm, wet winter.
As a reminder, our complete and final annual winter outlook will be posted here during the second half of October. That will include additional model data, along with several other points behind our reasoning for our winter forecast. As we always do, we’ll put “pen to paper” when it comes to our winter forecast, including our expected temperature and snowfall anomalies. Given the data above, including the warm JAMSTEC and NMME, it’s going to be very, very hard to see a warm winter here. In fact, our idea is for the exact opposite, given the SST configuration, and lines up more closely with the SST CA idea at this point. We’re also in the camp of a very, very active storm track through the Ohio Valley. “Big-hitter” potential is present from a winter storm perspective, especially given that we are likely to see resistance from the SE ridge.
