Category: Forecast Discussion

Sep 23

Cruising Into A Warm Close To September/ Open To October; Mid-Month Changes Brewing?

Updated 09.23.23 @ 7:50a

Dry conditions will prevail through 99.9% of the weekend and for most, 100% of the time. A few very light showers may sneak into western counties Sunday night, but light is the key word. With such a dry airmass in place, most of this activity is expected to arrive in a weakening state.

The temperature pattern is “easy peasy” this week as unseasonably mild temperatures dominate. An extended stretch of highs around 80° can be expected in the week ahead.

An upper low will pivot out of the Mid West and through the Ohio Valley midweek. This will deliver more in the way of unsettled weather for our neck of the woods, but we’re still not overly excited about rain chances.

Scattered showers will build into the picture Wednesday and Thursday, courtesy of the aforementioned upper low pressure system. From this distance, rainfall totals are expected to be light (mostly in the 0.10″ to 0.25″ range) and certainly not uniform in nature.

As we head into next weekend and the beginning of October (can you believe it?!), the ridge will expand overhead and lead to a return of quiet and milder times.

Down the road, as mentioned in this week’s long range report, I still would be very suspicious of the warm paint blob shown on most modeling towards mid-October. The thinking here is the negative EPO and positive PNA will begin to do work, leading to a fairly sizable shift in the ‘mean’ pattern…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/23/cruising-into-a-warm-close-to-september-open-to-october-mid-month-changes-brewing/

Sep 22

Long Range Outlook Into October: Reason To Be Suspicious Of The Warm Look…

Updated 09.22.23 @ 10:41a

The pattern over the next 10 days will continue the same warmer than normal theme we’ve grown accustomed to as of late. Keep in mind that “normals” have now fallen into the lower to middle 70s for highs and lower 50s at night. Certainly far from a “blow torch,” but temperatures will run 5° to 10° above the norm as we put a bow on September.

Short-term rain chances will be handled in our daily videos. Guidance continues to differ widely on our mid week system. Needless to say, we’re not overly optimistic on the wetter solutions as of now, but will closely monitor to see if more consistency develops down the road.

As a whole, the pattern continues to look drier than normal over the next couple weeks overall.

Week 1

Week 2

While guidance continues to look warm into early and mid October, I have to raise an eyebrow based on the latest teleconnection trends. We note the EPO trending negative while the PNA pops positive. These drivers should force a colder look Week 2 into Week 3 and I would suspect guidance will cool significantly as we get closer.

Further down the road, it’ll be important to keep tabs on western Pacific typhoon activity and the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are signs we may finally start to see the MJO become more of a player in the pattern towards mid October. Time will tell.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on guidance Week 2 into Week 3 as this will be the first real test case to revisit so far this meteorological fall season…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/22/long-range-outlook-into-october-reason-to-be-suspicious-of-the-warm-look/

Sep 21

VIDEO: Only A Couple Exceptions To An Otherwise Very Quiet Couple Of Weeks…

Updated 09.21.23 @ 7:46a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/21/video-only-a-couple-exceptions-to-an-otherwise-very-quiet-couple-of-weeks/

Sep 20

VIDEO: Case Of The “Haves And Have Nots…”

Updated 09.20.23 @ 7:33a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/20/video-case-of-the-haves-and-have-nots/

Sep 19

VIDEO: Generally A Quiet And Mild Pattern; Sunday Exception?

Updated 09.19.23 @ 5a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/19/video-generally-a-quiet-and-mild-pattern-sunday-exception/

Sep 18

VIDEO: Warming Up This Week; Opportunity For More Unsettled Times Late This Weekend Into Next Week…

Updated 09.18.23 @ 8:23a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/18/video-warming-up-this-week-opportunity-for-more-unsettled-times-late-this-weekend-into-next-week/

Sep 17

A Quiet Week With A Warming Trend; More Active Week 2?

Updated 09.17.23 @ 9:14a

Just enough energy will be around today to keep scattered, mainly light, showers in the mix into the evening hours. Most area rain gauges won’t collect significant rain but a few thunderstorms could drop a quick downpour in isolated fashion later this afternoon into the early evening.

A secondary disturbance will approach from the northwest Tuesday and provide another opportunity for a few showers, primarily northwest of the city. Most of these should dissipate before moving into central Indiana. All in all, we’re looking at a very quiet week with a significant warming trend.

A calm, mostly dry week is in store for the region.
Temperatures will return to well above normal levels this week.

Highs will run into the middle to upper 80s by the mid and latter part of the week with dry conditions.

Uneventful weather will carry the day through the weekend. While we’re watching a more significant storm system approaching early in Week 2, modeling differs on the specific handling. The European drives most of the energy well south of our neck of the woods and paints a continuation of our dry stretch. The GFS (shown below) is more excited about delivering rain early next week. We’ll watch how trends continue to evolve through the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/17/a-quiet-week-with-a-warming-trend-more-active-week-2/

Sep 16

Saturday Morning Rambles: Warm Close To September And An October Look Ahead…

Updated 09.16.23 8:16a

The pattern transition from the current cooler than normal regime to a warm September finish, compared to the norm, will get started the middle of next week. We still have several days to go with highs of 82°+ to close out the month. The pattern, as a whole, looks drier than normal. The exception to that general rule will come Sunday with scattered showers (the system that generates Sunday showers here will serve to ignite an early season ‘Nor Easter early week for the Mid Atlantic and New England. – A sign of the changing seasons) and we’re still tracking the threat of a more organized storm system in the early Week 2 period. The trend, however, has been for this being less of a player in our weather compared to a few days ago but we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

The pattern will transition warmer than normal for the 2nd half of the month.

As we flip the page into October, the pattern drivers from this distance appear to be lining up to drive a period of cooler air as we rumble through the first 1/3 of the month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to push into Phase 6. This typically favors the warmer anomalies across the west and Plains with at least a reflection of a trough across the East Coast.

The Pacific North America pattern (PNA) and East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) are working in tandem to also favor a cooler regime across our portion of the country. It’s fair to say that we believe the longer range warm “look” will be forced to cool over the course of the next couple weeks for early October.

The dry, relatively boring regime should begin to turn more active as we close out the month and move into October. The thinking here is that we should see a resurgent wet regime the deeper into fall we go before rolling into the drier than normal predominant winter pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/16/saturday-morning-rambles-warm-close-to-september-and-an-october-look-ahead/

Sep 15

VIDEO: Rain Chances Return Over The Weekend; Warmer, But More Active Shift In The Late September Pattern?

Updated 09.15.23 @ 7:18a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/15/video-rain-chances-return-over-the-weekend-warmer-but-more-active-shift-in-the-late-september-pattern/

Sep 14

VIDEO: Cool Now, But A Warmer Week 2 Awaits; Tracking A More Significant Storm System Late Next Week…

Updated 09.14.23 @ 8a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/14/video-cool-now-but-a-warmer-week-2-awaits-tracking-a-more-significant-storm-system-late-next-week/

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