1.) Tuesday’s upper air disturbance looks to track further and further SW with each and every passing model run. While we’ll keep an eye on things, it’s apparent that best snow chances will be across far SW counties, and even that may be generous (this thing is tracking much further west than what appeared a couple days ago), courtesy of NCEP.
2.) A significant warm-up is still on schedule for late week, centered on Friday, where temperatures will likely push to, or exceed, 60 degrees as ridging builds in. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
3.) The warmth will be brief, however, as a colder pattern returns (thank you positive PNA), including an interesting look for winter storm potential across the east days 8-10. (No need to get fancy with specifics at this juncture).
4.) The significant cold over the past 7 days has really eaten away at the warm start to the month, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
5.) Nearly 44% of the Lower 48 is snow covered at present. That compares to 25.6% of the Nation covered in snow for the same time last year.
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5-10 day temperature anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com Week 2 Accumulated Precipitation Anomalies. SOURCE: Tropicaltidbits.com Interested in our personalized consulting services? Email bill@indywx.com for more details. We’re just beginning a very wintry…
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Potential widespread winter storm threat days 7-10 from the Plains into the East
Summary: Changes are underway at the beginning of the period with a positive PNA pattern in place. This will support a drier and warmer than normal time of things across the west with a shift towards much colder than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. Early in the period, we’re tracking a coastal storm that will deliver blizzard conditions to the Cape Monday and a big upper low over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This will provide a prolonged snow shower event across the areas mentioned above. Toward the end of the period, we’ll have to remain focused over the southern/ central Plains for the potential of a developing winter storm that would then advance into the Ohio Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic.
Sensible Impacts: Strong ridging across the West will keep things drier and warmer than normal, with the action across the eastern half of the nation.
In addition to snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions that will impact the Cape to open the work week, blizzard conditions will also impact the northern Plains as an upper trough drops south. The same trough and associated upper level energy will deliver snow showers and embedded blinding snow squalls south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians through mid week, as well.
A very active northwest flow will send light to moderate snow makers southeast out of the N. Plains into the Ohio Valley through the upcoming work week. Overall, most snowfall accumulations will remain light, with the exception of Snow Belt areas.
A significant winter storm appears to be brewing next weekend and could impact a large portion of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic towards the end of the period.
Temperature Anomalies: A very cold time of things is ahead for the forecast region through the period. In some cases, temperatures will fall to levels some 15-20 degrees below normal.
Temperature anomalies Tuesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.comTemperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.comTemperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com
Precipitation: Snowfall will generally be light through the forecast region this week. Despite the light snowfall, very strong winds will likely lead to blizzard conditions in the open country, particularly across IA and MN early in the period. Heavier snow will be possible as the potential winter storm develops next weekend across the central Plains.
The relatively quiet and mild time of things this weekend will quickly give way to the promised return of winter next week. An arctic cold front will sweep through the state late Sunday and set things in motion that will keep the weather feeling, and looking, very wintry around these parts over the upcoming week.
As we’ve discussed, models will struggle with handling the local impacts of multiple upper air disturbances that will race southeast in the fast northwest flow aloft. We think Monday-Tuesday offer up the best chances of accumulating snow in the near term. The upper energy will be able to maximize snow production around these parts and this looks like a 1″-3″ type event, with local amounts to 4″. Winds will be quite gusty and blowing and drifting will be an issue, particularly in the open country.
Monday eveningTuesday evening
Another vigorous disturbance will race southeast Thursday afternoon. While the Canadian shows the bulk of the energy to our north, it would be close enough to ignite snow showers around here, as well. Expect small changes with timing and track as we get closer.
Thursday evening
Longer term, we also keep close eyes on next weekend. The pattern is one that should promote a significant widespread winter storm. The devil is in the details and we still have a ways to go, but the pattern set-up is one that screams an Ohio Valley winter storm threat from this distance.
2.) A significant warm-up is still on schedule for late week, centered on Friday, where temperatures will likely push to, or exceed, 60 degrees as ridging builds in. Image courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com.
3.) The warmth will be brief, however, as a colder pattern returns (thank you positive PNA), including an interesting look for winter storm potential across the east days 8-10. (No need to get fancy with specifics at this juncture).
4.) The significant cold over the past 7 days has really eaten away at the warm start to the month, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
5.) Nearly 44% of the Lower 48 is snow covered at present. That compares to 25.6% of the Nation covered in snow for the same time last year.
