Updated 11.08.23 @ 7:31a
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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/08/video-record-territory-today-and-windy-showers-arrive-this-evening-with-cooler-air-to-follow/
Nov 07
An Overall Warm Ride Into The Thanksgiving Holiday; Any Changes On The Horizon?
Updated 11.07.23 @ 5:15a
Despite a weekend setback that will continue into the early portion of Week 2, updated forecast model data continues to scream that we’ll run above to well above normal as the Thanksgiving holiday nears.
The pattern drivers support the warmer than normal call over the next couple of days. Note the primarily positive EPO and negative PNA.
This should help keep the ‘mean’ ridge position across the upper Mid West and Great Lakes over the next couple of weeks.
We’ll keep close eyes on the negative trend of that EPO towards the end of the period (image 1 above) to see if it continues in the coming days. If so, there’s the potential we could pull the anticipated western trough east in perhaps a bit quicker fashion than models currently see (say the last week of November, potentially).
As it is, another big pattern driver, the Madden-Julian Oscillation will begin to rev up in the coming days. A circle through Phase 7/8 this time of year supports the warm signals shown from the PNA and EPO.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/07/an-overall-warm-ride-into-the-thanksgiving-holiday-any-changes-on-the-horizon/
Nov 06
VIDEO: Warm Midweek Trends Colder For The Weekend…
Updated 11.06.23 @ 7:26a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/06/video-warm-midweek-trends-colder-for-the-weekend/
Nov 05
Sunny Start To The New Week Takes A Gloomy Turn…
Updated 11.05.23 @ 1p
You sure would be hard pressed to find more pleasant weather conditions by early November standards. Plentiful sunshine can be expected today as high temperatures head into the 60s. While we’ll add clouds (and big wind gusts) Monday, highs will zoom into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Southwest gusts will approach 40 MPH at times to open the work week. We’ll keep the warm theme going through midweek.
A cold front will move through the region Wednesday evening. Forecast models continue to differ on rainfall amounts with this frontal passage, but excessive rain isn’t expected.
In general, this looks like a 0.10” to 0.25” type event but note the wetter European and drier GFS solutions below. Expect more agreement in the coming day or 2. Regardless, this isn’t a “big deal” type of event by any means.
Expect a more seasonable brand of air to filter in as we close the work week and head into and through the upcoming weekend. Dry conditions will also return. Highs will settle back into the lower 50s with overnight lows around freezing.
Speaking of dry, the theme over the next couple weeks as a whole continues to look drier and quieter than normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/05/sunny-start-to-the-new-week-takes-a-gloomy-turn/
Nov 04
Saturday Morning Rambles…
Updated 11.04.23 @ 8:35a
I. November has opened on a chilly note. Through the 1st few days of the month, Indianapolis is running a whopping 6° below average. Warming will take place in the days ahead and we’re not finished with the 70s just yet. Wednesday stands the best shot at 70° warmth but it’s an admittedly tricky forecast with a wavy front hanging nearby.
II. A cold front and associated area of low pressure will offer up the best chance of widespread rain midweek, but we’re still not talking about any sort of heavy rain amounts. The bigger deal will be the cooler air moving in behind this system for late week and next weekend.
III. The type of air mass behind the boundary, though cooler, won’t have the same arctic nature to it that our last cold spell included. We’re talking a few days of highs in the 45° to 50° range and overnight lows in the lower 30s. An upper level ridge should return for mid month along with an unseasonably mild pattern. After midweek, the pattern as a whole is also a dry one into mid month.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/04/saturday-morning-rambles-13/
Nov 03
VIDEO: The Roller Coaster Ride Of Autumn; Checking In On The New European Weeklies…
Updated 11.03.23 @ 6:34a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/03/video-the-roller-coaster-ride-of-autumn-checking-in-on-the-new-european-weeklies/
Nov 02
LR Update: Looking Ahead Towards Thanksgiving…
Updated 11.02.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/02/lr-update-looking-ahead-towards-thanksgiving/
Nov 01
VIDEO: Welcome To November…
Updated 11.01.23 @ 7:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/01/video-welcome-to-november/
Oct 31
VIDEO: Tricks And Treats Today; Tracking Another Storm Next Week…
Updated 10.31.23 @ 5:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/31/video-tricks-and-treats-today-tracking-another-storm-next-week/
Oct 30
Pre-Dinner Rambles: Halloween Snow And New Winter “Tidbit”…
Updated 10.30.23 @ 5:36p
I. Vigorous upper level energy will dive southeast and impact our Halloween weather. Many will see their 1st snowflakes of the season (at least those who didn’t today) tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. This is the type setup that will lead to localized heavier squalls within the broader area of snow showers and I imagine this will carry deep into Tuesday night- longer than what most high resolution guidance currently suggests.
II. Cold and wind will also make for bitter conditions by Halloween standards. Trock or treaters will certainly need the layers under those costumes tomorrow night as wind chills fall into the 10s at times. Gusts up to 30-40 MPH will also create for “spooky” conditions at times.
III. New long range, “seasonal” data continues to suggest we’re heading for a Modoki Nino event. If this does, indeed, verify then we’ll look for colder and potentially snowier trends to take hold (certainly compared to a “traditional” Nino event) towards late December and on into the middle of winter. To no surprise, this should also play into some other drivers that suggest we should see more in the way of high latitude blocking periods this winter, compared to the past few. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/30/pre-dinner-rambles-halloween-snow-and-new-winter-tidbit/