The Storm Prediction Center includes the northwestern portions of the state in a Slight Risk of severe weather later this afternoon and evening. Given the overall set-up and morning trends from data, it wouldn’t surprise us if this threat expands further southeast in future updates later today from the SPC.
Similar to Tuesday, any storms that develop will be capable of locally heavy rain and flash flooding. While storms should move in a quicker fashion today, precipitable water values (PWATs) remain downright tropical and will exceed 2″ later this afternoon.
Overall storm coverage should become more widespread as we push into the afternoon and evening hours. Here’s what the radar may look like during the 4p, 6p, and 10p time frames:
From a severe perspective, the biggest concern is damaging straight line winds with stronger storms. Remain weather-aware later today, friends!
Best overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms should come in (3) waves over the upcoming 10-day period:
As I type this outside on the back porch this evening, I hear the sounds of sprinklers in full-force through the ‘hood. Thankfully, Mother Nature will help save on the water bill later this week. Longer-term, you’ll hear us use the word “transient” many times this summer when discussing the overall weather pattern. Thankfully that tends to result in a fairly busy time of things. Before you know it, college football season will be back (83 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers kick-off), those wetter autumn storms will return, and thoughts will begin to shift to winter (they may have already started here :-))- not that we’re trying to rush summer away or anything…
In fact, we forecast highs Wednesday to only top the upper 60s, and this will be a good 10°-15° below average for June 7th. Lows each morning through Friday will start out in the lower-middle 50s for the city, itself, but some outlying neighborhoods will fall deep into the 40s. Very refreshing, indeed, for early June!
High pressure will dominate our weather through late week, continuing the overall drier than normal theme.
Models slowly begin to increase moisture levels as we move into the weekend and an isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop, but widespread rains of significance aren’t anticipated for the foreseeable future.
Most significant rainfall will occur across the northern half of the state, including a couple of 1″+ totals in the heavier storms.
Week 2:
Weeks 3-4
The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend. Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.
There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.
In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.