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Category: Forecast Discussion
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/28/video-widespread-rain-arrives-late-tonight-colder-pattern-looms/
Feb 26
Monday Morning Rambles: Pleasant Open To The Week…
I. High pressure will dominate the early part of the work week, helping to supply plentiful sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures. We’ll continue to enjoy the much-needed dry theme the weekend ended on!
II. Our next weather maker will arrive midweek and provide a few showers Wednesday (not a huge deal from a precipitation perspective). However, as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes Thursday morning, a period of heavier rain and even thunder is possible. In general, this looks like a 0.50″ to 1.00″ type event.
III. Somewhat cooler air will whip in behind the low, allowing leftover precipitation to end as a couple wet snowflakes across the northern half of the state Friday morning. The bigger story will be the “bumpy” start to Friday with strong and gusty north winds.
IV. High pressure returns for the weekend and with it will come a return of sunny skies. Though the mornings will be frosty, afternoon temperatures will “warm” to pleasant levels, especially with the increasingly strong early-March sun angle.
V. Looking ahead, let’s keep a close eye on the second week of March. Potential is present for a stormy period to emerge under the block. We note the GEFS and EPS (respective ensembles of the GFS and European models) are in relative agreement on a stormy, cold look during this time frame. While far too early for specifics, the potential is there for a rather widespread wintry event from the Plains into the Northeast.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/26/monday-morning-rambles-pleasant-open-to-the-week/
Feb 25
VIDEO: Looking Ahead To The Upcoming Week And March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/25/video-looking-ahead-to-the-upcoming-week-and-march/
Feb 24
Heavy Rain This Morning; Nighttime Storms…
Our Saturday morning will be dominated by soaking rains as moisture continues to stream across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including central Indiana. Add in temperatures in the lower to middle 40s and you have our official approval to sleep in this morning. 🙂
Steady rain will give way to briefly drier conditions early to mid afternoon. While scattered showers will still be present, widespread moderate to heavy rain will diminish. Here’s a look at the forecast radar at 3p:
Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will return by evening, and forecast radar products at 8p and 2a Sunday show the stormy times well:
A couple of storms may become strong to severe (especially downstate). Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the threat of severe weather to encompass more of the state.
We’re most concerned for the potential of stronger storms to produce damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out tonight. Additionally, we’ll also have to be on guard for potential of flash flooding as storms will be capable of torrential rainfall. Heavy rain falling on already saturated soils may lead to problems in spots tonight into early Sunday.
After early morning storms head east Sunday, high pressure will build in with drier conditions and increasing sunshine Sunday. It’ll be a very nice close to the weekend, and calm, pleasant conditions will continue as we progress through the early portions of the new work week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/24/heavy-rain-this-morning-nighttime-storms/
Feb 23
Wet Weekend Gives Way To A Drier Open To The New Week…
Today will feature a continuation of gloomy conditions, including areas of fog and drizzle- especially this morning.
Thankfully, most of central Indiana will get a break from significant rainfall through the majority of our Friday, but a new batch of steady to occasionally heavy rain will build in overnight into the day Saturday.
Forecast radar 2a Saturday.
Forecast radar 10a Saturday.
We’ll add thunderstorms into the forecast Saturday night into the predawn hours Sunday as a deepening surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and sweeps a cold front through the state Sunday morning. A couple of these storms could become strong across central Indiana and even severe downstate. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of Indiana in a “marginal” risk of severe during this time period. We’ll keep a close eye on models over the next 24 hours as it’s possible this marginal and slight risk may need to be expanded further north.
Forecast radar 7p Saturday.
Forecast radar 1a Sunday.
Thankfully, drier air will quickly sweep into the state Sunday afternoon and this should allow sunshine to return as we close the weekend. Beforehand, additional rainfall of 1″ to 2″ will be widespread across central Indiana with locally heavier totals.
High pressure will settle overhead to open the new work week, allowing for a quieter time of things before a new active period develops by the middle of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/23/wet-weekend-gives-way-to-a-drier-open-to-the-new-week/
Feb 22
Heavy Rain, Thunder, And Colder For The 1st Half Of March…
While “nuisance” type showers are possible through the daytime hours, most of Thursday will provide a break from significant rainfall. Unfortunately, additional periods of moderate to heavy rain will return as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. In particular, we’re targeting the following for additional heavy rainfall:
- Overnight Thursday into Friday morning
- Overnight Friday into Saturday morning
- Saturday afternoon/ evening
Embedded thunderstorms may target southern Indiana late tonight and Friday morning before more widespread thunderstorms (a couple could become strong) Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the southern half of the state in a “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms Saturday.
All total, additional rainfall between now and Sunday morning should reach 2″ to 3″ across a widespread portion of the southern half of Indiana with locally heavier amounts.
We’ll finally dry things out as we close the weekend and head into early next week as high pressure settles overhead.
Next week will begin a pattern transition from the unseasonably warm weather we’ve enjoyed as of late to a colder regime for the first half of March. We note models continue to tank the NAO and AO.
Accordingly, the models are seeing the trough and associated colder than average pattern returning to the eastern half of the country as we rumble through the first half of March. With such a strong block in place, this can turn into an active pattern for a couple weeks to go along with the cold. Both the GEFS and EPS agree on the overall look.
While there’s no way to get specific on the individual storm threats that will eventually come with this pattern, the potential is present for a few storms to “bowl” underneath the block through the first 10-15 days of the month. Each storm will have the capability of delivering wintry precipitation, but this can also be a tricky time of year where most, if not all, ingredients need to come together to create significant wintry events. In a winter that’s been frustrating to central Indiana snow lovers (frigid, but dry first half and milder, wetter second half), perhaps it would be fitting to get a couple good snow dumps in March (when most are wanting and ready for spring)…
Colder times return for the first half of March.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/22/heavy-rain-thunder-and-colder-for-the-1st-half-of-march/
Feb 20
VIDEO: Heavy Rain Moves In…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/20/video-heavy-rain-moves-in/
Feb 19
Near Record Warmth & More Heavy Rain…
The big weather story Tuesday across central Indiana will be the near-record warmth. Typically it’s not until mid-May that average high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 70s, but we’re going to get an early taste of May tomorrow afternoon. Several records are in jeopardy of falling across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.
Steadiest rains will fall across the northern third of the state Tuesday with scattered downpours through the morning and afternoon hours across central Indiana.
Forecast radar 12p Tuesday.
Heavier rain will overspread central Indiana late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the cold front settles south.
Forecast radar 4a Wednesday.
As the front continues to sink south, much colder air will quickly overspread the area. By the rush hour, many neighborhoods north of Indianapolis will already be around freezing. As moisture continues to stream northeast, areas of freezing rain will be possible on elevated and exposed surfaces Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. With the recent warm, wet conditions, we don’t expect significant travel issues across central Indiana.
After a quieter time of things most of Thursday, we’re tracking three additional waves of moisture Friday and through the weekend. At times, rain will be heavy, and we’ll certainly have to be on guard for water rise and increasing flooding issues as the weekend arrives.
By the time all is set and done Monday morning, we forecast additional widespread 3.5″ to 5″ rainfall totals with locally heavier amounts.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/19/near-record-warmth-more-heavy-rain/
Feb 18
VIDEO: Heavy Rain This Week; Looking Ahead Towards March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/18/video-heavy-rain-this-week-looking-ahead-towards-march/
Feb 17
Saturday Morning Rambles: Periods Of Heavy Rain Early Next Week…
I. A weak weather maker will help spread a mixture of light rain and snow across the state later today, particularly this afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts will remain light and insignificant, but serve as a nuisance as you go about your weekend plans.
II. We’re hopeful for much needed sunshine Sunday as we’ll be in between storm systems, however any sun that we see won’t last long.
A rather ominous setup for heavy rain will take place Monday into Wednesday. This will include a combination of ingredients as a strong southeast ridge will prevent much forward motion of a “wavy” front that will drape itself across the Ohio Valley region. Additionally, the subtropical jet will transport moisture-rich air northward into the area (true Gulf of Mexico connection).
While this is an unseasonably warm pattern (we forecast highs of 50°, or above, 5 out of 7 of the upcoming days, and at least 2 60°+ days), it’s one that will likely result in periods of heavy rain not only next week, but in waves over the upcoming 10 days.
Widespread 10-day rainfall numbers of 3″ to 4″ will be likely in this setup, including locally heavier amounts of 5″ to 6″ in spots. Certainly, if you live near waterways we suggest having a plan in place as it’s not a matter of if, but when flooding takes place in spots across the region with such a setup.
III. Longer-term, we still need to be wary of the potential of a colder pattern returning as we get into March. That forecast deep negative arctic oscillation (AO) has to raise an eyebrow for the possibility of making up for lost time in the cold weather department before we can signal “all clear” on winter…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/02/17/saturday-morning-rambles-periods-of-heavy-rain-early-next-week/