Category Archives: Forecast Discussion

More Rumblings Around The Mid-May Pattern Change…

Updated 04.27.23 @ 2:07a

May will open with a continuation of unseasonably chilly weather. We’re even looking at the potential of an additional frost threat early next week.

But there are changes in the offing just beyond the 10th, or so. The NAO trends neutral.

And the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is heading towards the balmy (for May standards) Phase 6.

While there will be some questions with respect to the longevity of the warm-up, we should see a notable flip in the pattern just beyond the first 1/3 of the month, including much warmer weather across our neck of the woods and a good chunk of the east as a whole.

I would anticipate models to trend warmer in that Weeks 2-3 timeframe over the course of the next couple of days.

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Evolution Of Things Into Early Next Week…

Updated 04.26.23 @ 6:44a

Today and Thursday morning are “easy peasy.” Look for dry times and plentiful sunshine today giving way to increasing clouds Thursday morning.

Those clouds will give way to a shield of rain lifting from our southwest to northeast late Thursday morning into Friday morning, courtesy of an initial wave of low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.

Generally, heaviest rain within this time period will fall across southeast Indiana.

Amounts of a half inch (locally heavier) seems like a good call as far northwest as Indianapolis and surrounding ‘burbs.

As we head into the weekend the trend will once again be a cooler one, with the emphasis placed on the 2nd half of the weekend for the coolest air and more unsettled conditions (showery nature but nothing heavy expected). 60s Saturday will be replaced with 50s Sunday. Eventually, as skies clear and winds calm, another opportunity for frost looms Monday or Tuesday morning of next week as lows fall into the middle 30s.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Short term update, Spring, Unseasonably Cool Weather