Category: Forecast Discussion

Mar 30

Saturday Evening Thoughts On The Pending Heavy Rain/ Severe Event…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 5:07p

There’s not much, if anything, to change regarding the setup and anticipated outcome of the Easter Sunday through Tuesday timeframe. Periods of heavy rain will get going Sunday PM and we’ll also need to watch for the threat of severe storms not only tomorrow afternoon/ evening but again Monday.

Midday models are latching onto a widespread 2”-4”+ event.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the threat area tomorrow afternoon. Large hail is greatest concern but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

All modes of severe are on the table Monday, including tornado potential once again.

If all this wasn’t enough already, a much colder air mass will plunge into the region by midweek allowing rain to mix with and change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. The snow may even be heavy enough for slushy accumulations in spots.

Spring at its finest across the great Hoosier state…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/saturday-evening-thoughts-on-the-pending-heavy-rain-severe-event/

Mar 30

Multiple Waves Of Heavy Rain On Deck; Severe Storm Risk As Well…

Updated 03.30.24 @ 7:16a

The combination of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary, increasingly warm and humid air, and multiple waves of low pressure riding along the aforementioned boundary will lead to several rounds of locally heavy rain and also pose a strong to severe storm risk as we go through the early stages of the new week.

Precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 1.5” to 2” at times early week (a tough feat to come by this time of year). This only raises confidence in the opportunity for this setup to generate periods of heavy, and eventually excessive, rainfall.

Widespread 3”+ totals can be expected by the time all is said and done, with locally heavier amounts.

If the heavy rain event wasn’t enough, we also need to be on guard for the threat of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

In particular, it’s Monday’s risk of severe that has us most concerned, including all modes (hail, wind, and a TOR threat). We recommend reviewing your family’s severe weather safety plan and make sure to have a way to receive any warnings that may be issued.

The heavy rain event will come to an end by Tuesday evening, but if we didn’t have enough to track already, we’ll add in the potential of rain to mix with wet snow Wednesday. Regardless, expect a much colder and blustery time of things as this bigger storm departs by midweek.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/30/multiple-waves-of-heavy-rain-on-deck-severe-storm-risk-as-well/

Mar 29

Long Range Report: Active Pattern As We Head Into And Through April…

Updated 03.29.24 @ 6:57a

Don’t get used to any one particular pattern for any length of time over the next few weeks. “Active” will sum things up best in a single word as a transitional regime takes hold.

The NEW JMA Weeklies highlight this transitional theme best over the upcoming (4) week period.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3/4

To no surprise, especially given the transitional nature of the pattern, the upcoming few weeks should feature above normal rainfall for a good chunk of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

We’ll also want to keep tabs on the potential of greater than average severe weather episodes, notable considering we’re almost into April. It’s a byproduct of the “topsy-turvy” look to the overall pattern.

Pattern drivers, including the EPO, back up the transitional them over the upcoming couple weeks. Reminder, negative phase favors chilly conditions and positive phases favor milder air (compared to average). This look, too, screams wet and stormy.

Bottom line, buckle up for an active storm track and associated heavier than normal rainfall over the next few weeks. Temperature regimes will feature a bit of it all, including above and below normal periods, likely all balancing out slightly above normal when all is added up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/29/long-range-report-active-pattern-as-we-head-into-and-through-april/

Mar 28

VIDEO: The Setup For A Lengthy Period Of Moderate-Heavy Rain…

Updated 03.28.24 @ 7:31a While it’s quiet and cold now, we’ll notice an increasingly moist airmass returning about 36 hours from now. The first of a series of waves of…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/28/video-the-setup-for-a-lengthy-period-of-moderate-heavy-rain/

Mar 27

VIDEO: Briefly Calmer Pattern Midweek Takes On A Wet, Unsettled Look Over The Easter Weekend And Early Next Week…

Updated 03.27.24 @ 7:45a

High pressure will build overhead and allow increasing sunshine through midweek. Enjoy that Vitamin D while you can, as a wet pattern emerges for the Easter weekend and into early next week. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may eventually lead to a flood risk by early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/27/video-briefly-calmer-pattern-midweek-takes-on-a-wet-unsettled-look-over-the-easter-weekend-and-early-next-week/

Mar 26

VIDEO: Line Of Storms To Develop This Afternoon; Busy Pattern Ahead To Close March And Open April…

Updated 03.26.24 @ 7:30a Wind is the story this morning, and that will continue through the afternoon and evening. A “big hair warning” is in effect today. 🙂 A bit…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/26/video-line-of-storms-to-develop-this-afternoon-busy-pattern-ahead-to-close-march-and-open-april/

Mar 25

VIDEO: Batten Down The Hatches; Keeping An Eye On A Line Of Potentially Strong-Severe Storms Tuesday PM…

Updated 03.25.24 @ 7:25a While the work week will open on a quiet note today, we’ll really notice an uptick in winds by afternoon and these will only continue to…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/25/video-batten-down-the-hatches-keeping-an-eye-on-a-line-of-potentially-strong-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/

Mar 24

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 03.24.24 @ 8:20a

While a period of unsettled weather looms late Monday and Tuesday, the majority of the upcoming week will feature quiet conditions across our neck of the woods. We’re watching Tuesday afternoon for the potential of severe weather across the state.

The ‘mean’ trough will settle into the western CONUS and that’s where the coldest anomalies will setup shop.

A trough will take up residence across the West with only glancing blows of cooler air, locally.
A chilly week is in store for the West with the temperature swings balancing out very close to average across our area this week.
Rainfall will run average to slightly below average in the week ahead south and east.

Forecast period: 03.24.24 – 03.31.24

We’ll close the weekend with quiet conditions in place. Anticipate gusty winds to kick up Monday as our next storm system approaches from the west. This will also deliver a few showers Monday night before heavier rain and embedded thunder arrives Tuesday predawn. An additional round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and a few of these could become strong to severe (damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out).

A cold front will sweep east and end the rain/ storm threat Tuesday night with calmer weather returning for mid and late week. The next chance of rain will arrive next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, though early, model guidance is suggestive that we may be looking at a heavy rain event around the time that we close out March and open April. Just something we’ll be keeping an eye on in the days ahead.

Upcoming storm dates to keep an eye on:

  • 03.25 – 03.26
  • 03.30 – 04.01

*10-day Rainfall Projection: 2.00″ to 3.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/24/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-48/

Mar 23

VIDEO: Weekend Sunshine; Tracking 2 Storm Systems In The Week Ahead And Looking At The Early-April Pattern…

Updated 03.23.24 @ 10:51a A quiet weekend will turn more active as we open the new work week. We’re tracking this system and another storm late in the week. Both…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/23/video-weekend-sunshine-tracking-2-storm-systems-in-the-week-ahead-and-looking-at-the-early-april-pattern/

Mar 22

Friday Morning Rambles: More Long Range Chatter…

Updated 03.22.24 @ 7:56a

The ‘mean’ trough position will take up shop across the western portion of the country over the upcoming week before shifting into the East in the 10-15 day period. We reiterate while the balance of the upcoming 2 weeks will run cooler than normal, we don’t see anything significantly colder than normal on the horizon and also plenty of transitional warmth ahead of approaching storms.

Note how the trough shifts east late in the period.

Day 1-5
Day 5-10
Day 10-15

Back to the immediate term, we’ll only see a few light showers later this afternoon (trace to 0.10”). Greatest coverage should arrive after lunch, continuing into mid-afternoon. Again, “light” is the key word.

Colder air arrives for the weekend, itself. We can expect mid to upper 20s both Saturday and Sunday morning.

A new, stronger, storm will blow into town with more in the way of widespread heavier rain and thunder Monday night into the day Tuesday.

Another system will follow late week and next weekend.

1” to 2” is a good bet across the greater region by next Sunday. (The bulk of this falls with our Monday night and Tuesday system).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/22/friday-morning-rambles-more-long-range-chatter/

IndyWx.com