Apr 08
Updated 04.08.24 @ 7:40a Despite a few mid and high level clouds, we’ll enjoy absolutely stellar conditions today. Enjoy, friends! Unfortunately, we’ll have to trade off the gorgeous weather today…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/08/video-gorgeous-weather-today-wind-whipped-rain-storm-on-deck-midweek-and-turning-much-warmer-next-week/
Apr 07
Updated 04.07.24 @ 10:12a Pleasant conditions this morning will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky throughout the afternoon and evening and scattered storms will follow. It continues to appear…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/07/video-evening-storms-pave-way-for-improving-skies-monday-heavy-rain-event-mid-late-week/
Apr 06
Updated 04.06.24 @ 11:06a We couldn’t ask for better weather today (after that cold start). You earned it, friends! Clouds quickly return Sunday and give way to late afternoon and…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/06/video-saturday-stunner-gives-way-to-sunday-storms-perfect-timing-monday-ahead-of-more-heavy-rain/
Apr 05
The upcoming “immediate term” forecast package has a little something for everyone: Good, Bad, and UGLY.
Let’s start with the “good” first, we should finally see drier air win out and get us back into the sunshine department Saturday. The trade off? Unseasonably cold conditions taking hold under those clearing skies tonight and diminishing wind. Most areas should wake up to the upper 20s come Saturday morning, but under that strong April sun angle, temperatures will zoom into the middle 50s by afternoon. Enjoy the badly needed vitamin D as it won’t stick around terribly long.
Our next storm system will deliver a round of gusty storms in here by Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunshine to start the day will give way to increasing clouds and scattered to numerous storms later in the day. We’re monitoring for the potential of a few strong-to-severe storms during this time period.
We still have our fingers crossed for a brightening sky to take hold Monday, but this isn’t a slam dunk by any means. – More of a now cast type situation if you ask us as the region will be in between systems. We’ll continue to hope for the best.
Regardless, active weather quickly returns midweek as a surface low rides northeast into the Ohio Valley. This will mean widespread rain and embedded thunder will return, and heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely.
Heaviest rain likely arrives later Wednesday into Thursday followed by a gusty and briefly colder close to next week. By this point, early indications are that the region can expect another significant rain event, including widespread 2″+ totals (we’ll hone in on those amounts as we get closer).
There’s ensemble support to back up the heavy rain idea.
Additional details to come throughout the weekend (and beyond) around these items and more.
Happy Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/friday-afternoon-rambles-close-eyes-on-mondays-cloud-cover-and-gearing-up-for-another-active-week-of-hefty-rain-storms/
Apr 05
Updated 04.05.24 @ 7:16a
The overall chilly and unsettled pattern of late should show rather marked improvement not only over the short-term, but longer range, as well.
The teleconnection suite (AO, NAO, PNA, and EPO) over the next couple weeks is aligned in a manner that should promote less of an anomalous 500mb look, locally (deep eastern trough we’ve been dealing with).
If we’re able to sneak into MJO Phase 6, then a warmer “lean” would be required by mid and late April. As always, we’ll keep an eye on those trends as the majority of data keeps the MJO in the neutral phase.
The thought here is that a milder and drier overall regime will take hold over the course of the next few weeks, certainly compared to late. That said, given the pattern drivers noted above, I also want to reiterate that we shouldn’t see rain or temperatures that differ significantly from average (rather only slightly above in the temperature department and slightly below in the precipitation department over the upcoming 4 week period). Further west, the better chance of more in the way of significantly above normal temperatures (primarily in the Plains).
The latest European and JMA Weeklies agree on this overall idea.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Upcoming 4-week rainfall anomalies
The JMA Weeklies also show a similar story.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/05/long-range-report-pattern-evolution-into-late-april-early-may/
Apr 04
Updated 04.04.24 @ 7:40a A big ole upper low will move only sluggishly over the next day or two, keeping clouds, light precipitation, and chilly temperatures around. The good news?…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/04/video-trending-in-the-right-direction-as-we-open-the-weekend-but-still-have-to-get-through-a-couple-damp-chilly-days/
Apr 03
Updated 04.03.24 @ 7:40a Clouds and showers (even embedded thunder by this afternoon) will transition to wet snow tonight into Thursday morning. The wet snow will fall heavily enough to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/03/video-weather-whiplash-indeed-another-active-stretch-on-deck-by-early-next-week/
Apr 02
Updated 04.02.24 @ 6:44a
It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon as a final round of severe storms move through the state. Morning rain will come to an end soon and then we’ll see a “lull” in the action late morning. Upstream satellite images are concerning as it appears we’ll break into sunshine for a while late morning into early afternoon. This will quickly get to work on the atmosphere and aid in a turbulent time of things through the early and mid afternoon. In fact, as the Storm Prediction Center gets a look at the setup post-sunrise, it wouldn’t surprise us if each of the respective risk areas gets pulled back further west.
Regardless, storms will redevelop just after lunchtime across western Indiana and intensify on their journey east through the afternoon. By evening, most if not all of the activity will be out of the state.
All modes of severe weather will be possible area-wide today. We’re particularly worried about an elevated tornado outbreak across the Ohio Valley, especially if clearing takes hold for a while late morning. Take warnings seriously if and when they are issued, friends.
Strong westerly winds will take hold by evening, quickly pushing a colder and more stable airmass into town, thankfully.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/02/bumpy-ride-this-afternoon/
Apr 01
Updated 04.01.24 @ 11:28a
I. Things will turn quite active later tonight and into our Tuesday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will track across central Indiana. As heavy rain trains over the same area, localized flooding will develop Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours.
A threat of severe weather is also present, including large hail and even a couple tornadoes. Given the current parameters, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the fine folks at the Storm Prediction Center expand the current risk zones a bit further north for both the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. We’re still tracking a potential line of severe weather Tuesday PM after the multiple rounds in the morning. We’ll want to remain weather-aware tonight and Tuesday across central Indiana.
II. Much colder air will pour in here Wednesday and as the closed upper level low swings through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, a renewed area of precipitation will expand across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow in spots across central Indiana during this time. Heavier wet snow bursts will lead to slushy accumulation on grassy surfaces.
Northwest winds will result in lowered visibility and a harsh feel (given the time of year) with wind chills into the 10s and 20s at times.
III. While we’ll briefly dry out in the 6-10 day, the pattern continues to present an active look down the road, including above normal rainfall projected in the Week 2 timeframe through the Plains and into the mid South and western Great Lakes region.
All in all, we don’t see any extended periods of dry weather on the horizon over the next few weeks as a whole.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/01/lunchtime-rambles-flooding-wind-whipped-snow-midweek-and-looking-ahead-to-an-opportunity-for-a-briefly-calmer-window/
Mar 31
Updated 03.31.24 @ 7:26a
The upcoming immediate term will be headlined by a multi day heavy rain and severe weather episode. A stalled frontal boundary will serve as the pathway for multiple waves of low pressure to ride along through Tuesday. In addition to a heavy rain and flooding threat (primarily targeting immediate central and north-central Indiana), we’ll also likely have to deal with (3) rounds of severe storms. We’ll allow our short-term products to handle those severe threats, but just know all modes of severe are on the table with the greatest emphasis being on large hail with this setup. Should a couple discrete cells develop near or just south of the boundary then an elevated tornado threat would ensue. Again, we’ll have a fresh post hoisted later this afternoon or evening on that.
Overall, there’s no change in the idea of an active pattern continuing from Week 1 (image 1 below) into Week 2 (image 2 below).
The cooler pattern behind our early week storm system will reverse in significant fashion Week 2. – Transitional regime at its finest.
Week 1 temperature anomalies
Week 2 temperature anomalies
The busy nature of the pattern is reflected in the upcoming 2 week precipitation anomalies.
Severe weather will be possible at least across a portion of our immediate viewing area starting this evening and continuing daily through Tuesday.
Colder air will crash in here Wednesday and as an upper low swirls overhead, wet snow will develop. Snow may even fall heavily enough to accumulate on grassy surfaces in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
*Upcoming 10-Day Rainfall Projection: 3” to 4”+
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/31/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-49/