At one time what appeared to be a window of drier weather moving in now looks to be filled with active and at times stormy conditions as we navigate the first week to 10 days of May. Initially, rain totals won’t be “uniform” and scattered in nature but by the time all is said and done by the end of the first week of May, many can expect 2″+. The scattered coverage, locally, today will likely congeal into a more widespread complex of rain/ storms just to the north and northwest of the city later this evening.
This morning’s video covers those wetter trends in more detail…
Our Friday is off to a pleasant start but a few showers and embedded thunder will push across the state later this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north across the region. This will place Indiana in an increasingly warm, moist airmass over the weekend and on into early and middle portions of next week. Rounds of heavier rain and storms are expected next week ahead of a brief push of cooler, drier air heading into the first weekend of May…
While we have a couple of storm systems to track in the upcoming week, the majority of the heavy rain and severe weather will remain confined to areas west of here- mostly throughout the Plains and into the upper Mid West. In short, the immediate-term has “more bark than bite.”
The overall long range look reflects a lack of any sort of stagnant regime, locally, and it also doesn’t show that we’ll have to endure much in the way of “extremes” over the upcoming 3-4 week period from a temperature or precipitation perspective. – A good sign as Plant24 hits its true stride.
Week 1
The JMA and European are in agreement that this period will feature warmer than normal temperatures and near average rainfall. Of note, we’re tracking storm systems that will impact our weather Friday, Saturday, and again Monday and Tuesday.
Week 2
We note guidance getting more bullish on an East Coast trough beginning to develop during this time period. While likely averaging out slightly above normal as a whole in Week 2, I’d also plan on a few days of cooler air (type of stuff that could send us to around 40° at night and low-mid 60s during the day) around the Day 8 – 10 time frame. The period should once again feature timely rains, but nothing far off from the average.
Weeks 3-4
It’ll be interesting to watch what the European Weeklies do later today during this time frame, but the JMA is highlighting a more unsettled (wetter) pattern for now in the middle to latter part of May. Near to slightly below average temperatures and widespread above normal rains are being shown. (We’ll update this period after reviewing today’s European Weeklies).
Low level clouds will continue to push south this morning, leading to a mostly cloudy day, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor. Downstate will hold on to sunshine a little longer than up this way. All in all, it’ll be a cool and breezy day. Those clouds will clear out of here quickly later today and as winds diminish, it’ll set the stage for frost in many areas, especially outside of the city, itself come Thursday morning. Hang in there, warmer (and increasingly muggy days) await as we push through the weekend. This sets the tone for what’s ahead as we flip the page to early May…
The day is dawning quiet but that will change as we move through the afternoon. Not only will rain increase in coverage and intensity, but winds will pick up out of the southwest. A wind-whipped rain will greet commuters on the way home this evening.
Rain will overspread central IN later this afternoon into the evening.
Most local rain gauges should accumulate 0.35″ to 0.50″ with the passage of this cold front.
As mentioned, winds will be strong and gusty today. We’ll top out with gusts upwards of 40 MPH across the region- perhaps even a bit stronger in spots.
High pressure will settle overhead midweek, allowing for clearing skies, diminishing wind, and cooler temperatures.
Additional chances of patchy frost can be expected around the greater Indy area by Thursday morning. Outlying areas away from the city, itself, can expect to dip into the lower to middle 30s Thursday morning with widespread frost.
As we look ahead to the weekend and early next week, our region will undergo a regime change. Warmer, increasingly muggy air will replace the cool, stable air of midweek and storm chances will also increase. As of now, it looks like wettest days, including most widespread storms, will come Friday and Monday. While you’ll note storms in the forecast “box” below for Saturday and Sunday, it’s important to reiterate these will likely be few and far between (“splash and dash” variety). Most of the weekend is looking dry as of now.
The work week will start pleasant but take an unsettled turn rather abruptly Tuesday. Clouds will increase and give way to showers and embedded thunder ahead of another unseasonably cool push of air just in time for midweek. The other item of note Tuesday? Strong southwesterly winds upwards of 40 MPH at times ahead of that cold front.
More of a true spring-like pattern takes hold going into the weekend, complete with increasing storm chances.
It was a frosty start to the morning across central Indiana, especially in outlying areas. We’ll do it all over again tonight and Monday morning as temperatures dip back into the lower and middle 30s. The fine folks over at the Indianapolis National Weather Service office have hoisted a Frost Advisory from 1a to 10a Monday.
Widespread frost is expected Monday morning.
Otherwise, the work week will open with a continuation of the sunny skies we’ve enjoyed over the past few days.
That will all begin to change as a cold front arrives from the northwest on Tuesday. Clouds will quickly return and showers and thunderstorms will follow. We’re not talking about excessive rainfall with this system, but 0.25″ to 0.50″ is likely as the front moves through the Ohio Valley. Gusty southwesterly winds can also be expected, including up to 40 MPH at times Tuesday.
Rain and embedded thunder returns Tuesday.
This will be a fast moving system and dry conditions will quickly return overnight and into Wednesday morning. This FROPA we’ll also help to reinforce the chilly airmass and a renewed frost (and potentially even a freeze) threat looms by Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Another round of frost is expected midweek.
As we roll into next weekend, an overall regime change is on the docket, including a much warmer and more humid airmass engulfing the region. Along with this transition to more of a tropical feel, heavier rain and storms will return as well. As of now, closing out April and opening May is looking to feature numerous heavier rain and storm events. This will all get kicked off Friday.
A return of active times is expected to close April and open May.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/04/21/midweek-cold-front-delivers-another-frost-threat-warming-up-and-turning-stormy-next-weekend/
High pressure will dominate our weather this weekend, allowing for an extended dry, but cool stretch. Sunshine can be expected both today and Sunday and the overall pleasant theme will continue into the early stages of the new work week. Rain and storm return Tuesday and again on Friday of the week ahead. It’s just the beginning of another wet stretch as we close out April and head into May…
While our high officially today was in the middle 60s to lower 70s (location dependent) just after midnight, “daytime highs” won’t even make it out of the 50s. Get used to a cooler stretch through the weekend and into early next week. In fact, we’re even talking about chances of frost in outlying areas Sunday and Monday mornings (and potentially again the middle of next week). The next opportunity of rain, locally, won’t come until Tuesday.
The day will start off quiet, but won’t end that way. We’re monitoring the threat of strong to severe storms later this evening, continuing into and through the overnight hours. The good news? All of these will be off to our east prior to heading out the door to work or school Friday morning. Then we can concentrate on a refreshingly cool weekend with sunshine returning.
