The morning is off to a beautiful start as drier air oozed into central IN overnight. Many reporting sites are returning numbers in the middle 50s this morning! Anyone else craving fall?
While a beautiful day is in store locally, we note clouds associated with a storm complex off to our northwest this morning. Some of these clouds could blow into central IN at some point this afternoon or evening.
As we fast forward to mid week the cold front that’s currently to our south will lift back north as a warm front. This will be in response to surface low pressure tracking in west to east fashion through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley. That said, there’s precise details still not etched in stone that can, and will, have a large impact on our weather (locally) Wednesday night though Thursday. Note some of the differences with just a few of our forecast models in regards to heavy rainfall placement:
High-resolution NAM
GFS (interestingly the 6z GFS shunted the rain farther south):
Canadian:
* The European most closely resembles the 0z GFS run.
We still have time to sort through the details in regards to the precise placement of heaviest rain, but for now we’re keeping widespread rain and embedded thunder in the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday.
Note precipitable water values exceeding 2″ in spots Thursday. This will certainly support locally heavy rain and a flash flood threat for portions of the state during the aforementioned time period. Much more later this evening!
