Category Archives: Flooding

Dry Time Is Limited…

Highlights:

  • Unsettled times ahead
  • Weekend heavy rain
  • Much cooler and windy early next week

Enjoy The Dry Time While You Can…While most of Wednesday will remain rain-free, we do note the potential of a diminishing line of thunderstorms that could impact portions of far northwest sections of the state Wednesday morning.  As mentioned, these should diminish relatively quickly and give way to a mostly dry day.  A cold front will approach the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning and result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms during that time.  Briefly drier air will arrive Thursday evening into Friday and we should wrap up the work week mainly dry.

We’ll take whatever dry weather we can get as the weekend still looks wet and stormy.  We discussed the weekend setup this morning and thoughts haven’t changed a bit.  Today’s model data continues to suggest we’re looking at periods of heavy rainfall with widespread weekend totals of 2″-3″ (locally heavier amounts possible).  Of the two days, Saturday appears to offer up the most widespread rains, but we caution that the scattered showers and thunderstorms that develop Sunday will have the potential of depositing hefty totals in relative short order.  Due to the projected steering currents, we’re also concerned for the possibility of “training” of heavy rain and that would quickly create a flash flood concern in localized areas.  Stay tuned.  Another item of interest is the possibility of “bust potential” with regard to the temperature forecast Saturday.  Latest modeling wants to keep the warm front just south of the immediate region for most of the day now and, as such, we’ve trended cooler with Saturday’s temperatures before that warm southwesterly air flow wins out Sunday.

The warmth won’t last long as we quickly transition to a cooler west and northwest regime to open the work week.  Along with the much cooler air, scattered showers and strong and gusty winds will be with us.  We’ll finally begin to calm down with a very pleasant Tuesday expected.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.00″ – 4.00″
7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Heavy Rain, T-storms, Windy

Wet Day; Enhanced Flood Risk Tonight For Some…

The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to encompass more of the viewing area.  This is in effect until 8p Tuesday.

Screen Shot 2016-08-15 at 7.26.16 AMNo doubt about it, today will be very wet across the entire region, including periods of heavy rain- especially across the western half of the state.

3

4Tropical moisture will continue to stream into the state tonight into Tuesday.  In fact, most intense rains will likely set up tonight and may feature “banding” signatures that would train over the same areas.  Within these intense rain bands, prolific rainfall rates can be expected, enhancing the flash flood risk.  Latest short-term model data shows this threat, and would place a premium focus on areas generally west of US-31.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on things.

2Plenty of “juice” is available to tap into across western sections tonight.  Precipitable water values (PWATs) of 2″-2.5″ will be more than enough to fuel torrential rainfall.

hrrr_pwat_indy_16Eventually (mid and late week), we’ll dry things out and a significant cool down is still in store developing this weekend into early next week.  Lows will fall deep into the 50s with highs only in the 70s.  Talk about an early taste of fall…

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6

Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Heavy Rain Continues; Early Fall Preview Late Next Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-08-14 at 9.57.05 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of heavy rain
  • Drying out come mid week
  • Cold front arrives next weekend

Flooding Concerns…Renewed heavy rain is pushing through central IN as we write up the morning forecast package.  This conveyor belt of moisture will continue to lift northeast and eventually break up and diminish during the late morning and early afternoon.  Despite scattered showers this afternoon, drier times will ensue, overall.  Unfortunately, this drier period won’t last long as another slug of moisture lifts north late tonight and continues Monday.   Additional heavy rainfall can be expected, including the potential of rainfall rates approaching 2″+/ hour.  Given the water-logged soils across the region, concerns of flash flooding are very high Monday.

Eventually, we’ll dry things out come mid week and introduce more sunshine back into the forecast.  Our next item on the agenda will be a cold front that will sweep through the state Saturday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary as it moves through the region before much drier and cooler air blows in for the second half of the weekend.  In fact, a welcomed early fall preview awaits come Sunday.  Thoughts of football, pumpkin “everything,” bonfires, and apple cider will be prevalent this time next week…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2″-4″ (locally heavier totals)

 

7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Flooding, Football, Forecast, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather

“Lull” In The Rain Won’t Last…

Central Indiana is enjoying some needed “down time” in the rainfall department this evening, but this won’t last as rain coverage and intensity returns overnight and Sunday morning. Like today, locally heavy downpours will be likely.

Forecast radar at 4a
Forecast radar at 6a.
Forecast radar at 11a.

In looking at early 00z data, it appears as if we deal with (2) waves of rain Sunday:

Sunday morning will feature widespread rain across central Indiana, including localized heavy rain. Another “lull” in the activity will likely arrive Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, but we caution rain and embedded thunder will really begin to ramp up and increase in coverage and intensity yet again late Sunday night into the day Monday. 

The second surge of moisture is more in direct association with the tropical moisture and energy moving north. This area of rain will likely include embedded rates of 3″-4″/ hour for some very localized areas. It’s impossible to pin point where these areas are, but don’t be surprised to hear (or see) some very heavy rain Monday. 

A true Gulf of Mexico connection will be present Monday and aid in flooding prospects.

When we factor in expected rain from tomorrow and Monday, it would appear as if central IN is in line to accumulate an additional 2″-4″ with locally heavier amounts. Flooding prospects will increase dramatically Monday as heavy rain falls on saturated soils. Please, take warnings seriously. Rapid water rises are likely.

Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Tropics

Saturday Evening Update…

We’re not even through the first 1/4 of this rain event, and we’ve already had several flash flood warnings issued today.  Periods of rain, occasionally heavy, will continue through central IN through the weekend.  Additional flash flood warnings will come.  As of this report, localized rainfall totals are approaching 3″ in a few spots (Greencastle area, between Vincennes and Bedford, and around Muncie).

As mentioned, this is a long-duration event, but there will be dry times.  Perhaps the most widespread heavy rains arrive on the scene late Sunday night into early next week.  Monday into Tuesday looks very wet.  The moisture and energy associated with the area of low pressure over Louisiana will meander northwest over the next (24) hours before moving north and eventually northeast along the frontal boundary that will be stalled over the region.

Precipitable water will once again surge to 2.5″+ and promote intense rainfall rates over a more widespread portion of the region Sunday night through Tuesday.

1Unlike the localized banding features of the rain today, the rain shield should be much more widespread Monday into Tuesday.  Factor in the hefty rain totals today into Sunday, combined with additional heavy rain Monday and Tuesday, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a few double digit rainfall reports by the time all is said and done Wednesday night/ Thursday.  Widespread 4″+ totals will be common across central IN by the time all is said and done.

We flip the script next weekend and turn much drier and unseasonably cool.  It’ll feel like an early taste of fall next weekend (perhaps even some upper 40s for a few folks across central portions of the state)?!

Heed flood warnings that come over the next few days.  Rainfall rates will be downright tropical in nature and result in fast water rise.

Flooding, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain