Category: European Model

Nov 20

Dinnertime Rambles: Talking Thanksgiving Weekend And December…

Updated 11.20.23 @ 5:30p

I. The weather pattern will turn progressively colder as we move through the Thanksgiving holiday. This isn’t anything earth-shattering by any stretch, but temperatures running 4° to 8° below normal is pretty stout. There’s also still the potential of an early season arctic “jab” prior to us getting out of the first 3-5 days of December, but that likely comes after this weekend- if at all.

As a whole, it’s a dry pattern that will accompany the chill, but we will want to continue keeping an eye on energy that will eject off the Rockies over the weekend. At times models can underplay these features only to have to correct stronger as we grow closer to the potential event. Will that be the case this time? Impossible to say from this distance- just something we’ll continue to monitor with such a busy travel period. As it is today, modeling wants to “string” the energy out which would essentially be a light or non-event.

II. While the pattern drivers all are aligned for a cold open (first few days) of December, there’s reason to believe a period of milder than normal air will take foot just after- say sometime between 12/5 and 12/8, or so. That said, we’re in a bit of a fork in the road so to speak.

The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is going to pop positive at least for a period of time prior to mid-December. This strongly argues for a relaxation of the cold regime that we’ll endure to open the month. Guidance differs on the handling of the MJO, however. Should the American guidance be correct in taking things into Phase 4, when combined with what we see transpiring with the EPO, then we’re off to the races for at least a 7-10 day period of much warmer than normal temperatures. That said, European guidance collapses the MJO into the “null” phase and even hints at things emerging again in the colder phases come mid December. While we still have time to sort through this “mess,” the idea here is that the cold open to the month will moderate to slightly to moderately above normal for a 7-10 day period leading us into mid-month. Thereafter, I’m becoming increasingly bullish for a renewed cold pattern developing towards the Christmas and New Years holidays…

It’ll be important to closely monitor the MJO as we head into early-mid December as this will have big impacts on our overall weather pattern.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/20/dinnertime-rambles-talking-thanksgiving-weekend-and-early-december/

Nov 17

More On The Cold Close To November…

Updated 11.17.23 @ 11a

The stars are all aligning to drive a significant shift in the overall regime towards one that should yield cooler (and, at times, colder) than normal temperatures as we navigate the back half of the month.

First, we have the MJO. Note how we’re set to slide into Phases 1 and 2 between now and end of the month.

These are progressively cold phases this time of year. Phase 1 has residual warmth across the Northeast (more seasonable here on the home front) before Phase 2 becomes overwhelmingly cold.

We then have the combo of the negative EPO and positive PNA. Both cold signals for our neck of the woods.

It’s no wonder model guidance is jumping on the persistent eastern trough to close out the month.

At some point in the 8-12 day period, I’d anticipate a true dislodge of true early season arctic air to get involved in the pattern. Think lows into the upper 10s, lower 20s and highs in the 30s. Still far too early to get specific with snow chances, but they will come before month’s end.

Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/17/more-on-the-cold-close-to-november/

Nov 10

An Incredibly Quiet Week Ahead Of A Potentially Busy Thanksgiving Week…

Updated 11.10.23 @ 6:54a

Simply put, for this time of year, the upcoming 5-7 days is as quiet as it can be around these parts. Look for much more sunshine than we typically see this time of year along with moderating temperatures after a seasonably chilly weekend. Highs will return into the lower 60s for a good chunk of the work week ahead. All in all it’ll be a perfect week to get a jump on that exterior Christmas decorating or any end of year yard work. Enjoy!

An area of high pressure will keep our region quiet in the week ahead while the “action” shifts to the south and east.

As we look ahead to Thanksgiving week, there are growing indications of a much more active pattern that will emerge. While still too early for specifics, there are likely to be some weather-related impacts to holiday travel (both going and coming home) from a couple of stronger storm systems.

One more quick note before closing, the NEW European Weeklies are in and present an “intriguing” signal as we get closer to Christmas. Note the model see the early December ridge get washed away and a trough beginning to emerge south-central. I’d watch for the model to grow stronger and more expansive (colder impacts) in time. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/10/an-incredibly-quiet-week-ahead-of-a-potentially-busy-thanksgiving-week/

Nov 09

LR Update: Thanksgiving And Early December…

Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a

With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.

Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.

Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.

Make it a great Thursday!

Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/

Oct 06

LR Discussion: Pattern Discussion Through The Remainder Of October And Into November…

Updated 10.06.23 @ 7:56a

As we type this, we’re in the midst of the season’s 1st big blast of chilly air. These shots will become progressively cooler (colder) in the coming weeks and months. Speaking of that, we’re also working on a post that we’ll unveil over the weekend looking specifically at the upcoming holiday season and what our analog package/ respective SST configuration says we may have in store this season.

For the purpose of this post, we’ll focus squarely on the pattern through the remainder of October.

As we typically do, the pattern drivers (+ PNA and – EPO) both suggest a ‘mean’ trough should take up shop across the eastern 1/3 of the country over the next couple weeks. What’s interesting is that the updated European Weeklies also suggest this general theme should continue into at least mid-November. Despite a favorable setup with respect to the PNA/ EPO, the model tries to wash out the chill and hints at a ridge down the road. In my humble opinion, this is the model feeding back on itself and once again showcasing an inability to see below normal temperatures in the longer range. We’ve shown time and time again over the summer and even into the early fall where the model is “forced” to cool the closer we get to a given period and believe that will, once again, be the case this go around, especially with the anticipated positive PNA and negative EPO.

The Pacific North American pattern (PNA) is expected to remain in a positive state through the majority of the upcoming 5-6 weeks.
The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is anticipated to remain largely in a negative state through the upcoming 5-6 weeks.

The upper pattern, illustrated with last night’s European Weeklies, is one that breaks the trough down towards Halloween. While there is a possibility of some brief warming around this timeframe, I suspect we’ll once again look back at the model having to correct colder over the east as we rumble into November. More on that in a moment.

Week 1: 10/5 through 10/11

Week 2: 10/11 through 10/18

Week 3: 10/18 through 10/25

Week 4: 10/25 through 11/1

The period ends with a warmer look around Halloween and while this is on the table, it’s also a look that should promote building heights over AK and western Canada and another period of blocking with a subsequent cold trough developing over our neck of the woods and the central/ east as we rumble through into November. The model is seeing the building heights, but not picking up on the magnitude of a downstream trough and associated colder pattern, IMO. Frankly, this 500mb look is capable of producing very cold weather sometime during mid-November and I suspect the model will have to start playing catch up as we move forward.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/06/lr-discussion-pattern-discussion-through-the-remainder-of-october-and-into-november/

Sep 10

VIDEO: Tuesday Frontal Passage; Reviewing New Seasonal Data For Winter…

Updated 09.10.23 @ 10:46a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/10/video-tuesday-frontal-passage-reviewing-new-seasonal-data-for-winter/

Sep 04

VIDEO: ’23 – ’24 Snow Nugget; Rain Chances Return Tuesday Into Wednesday…

Updated 09.04.23 @ 8:58a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/04/video-23-24-snow-nugget-rain-chances-return-tuesday-into-wednesday/

Aug 26

VIDEO: BIG Changes In The Week Ahead…

Updated 08.26.23 @ 6a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/26/video-big-changes-in-the-week-ahead/

Aug 22

VIDEO: Heat & Humidity Grab Headlines For Now; Scattered Strong Late Week Storm Potential As Heat Breaks?

Updated 08.22.23 4:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/22/video-heat-scattered-strong-late-week-storm-potential-as-heat-breaks/

Aug 19

VIDEO: Pleasant Now But Heat Builds In The Week Ahead; Quick Look At September…

Updated 08.19.23 @ 9:40a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/19/video-pleasant-now-but-heat-builds-in-the-week-ahead-quick-look-at-september/

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