Category: European Model

VIDEO: Talking Storms And Wetter Trends Next Week…

Updated 04.26.24 @ 7:19a

Our Friday is off to a pleasant start but a few showers and embedded thunder will push across the state later this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north across the region. This will place Indiana in an increasingly warm, moist airmass over the weekend and on into early and middle portions of next week. Rounds of heavier rain and storms are expected next week ahead of a brief push of cooler, drier air heading into the first weekend of May…

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Spring; #Plant24 Outlook…

Updated 02.10.24 @ 7:20a

Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:

  • El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
  • Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
  • Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.

Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.

This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.

Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.

European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through May
JMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May

From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.

European seasonal temperature anomalies March through May
JMA temperature anomalies March through May

IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:

  • Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
  • Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.

Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/spring-plant24-outlook/

Lunchtime Rambles: Trends For The Weekend And Early Next Week…

Updated 02.07.24 @ 1:39p

Today’s midday computer guidance is trending more bullish for trailing energy to deliver heavier precipitation across central IN and the Ohio Valley. While there are many more questions than answers with respect to precipitation type, confidence is increasing significantly that a period of more significant precipitation will come at us in (2) waves this weekend into early next week: Saturday and again Monday.

Today’s ensemble guidance (12z total precipitation GEFS and EPS shown below) is showing a northward adjustment in more significant moisture into the Ohio Valley over the weekend into early next week.


We’ll continue to closely monitor the trends over the next couple of days but as of now, we feel confident enough to hit the prospects of rain harder Saturday (still nothing overly heavy but certainly more than guidance suggested over the past few days) and another period of widespread precipitation to open the new work week on Monday. As colder air works into the region over the weekend, this secondary wave of moisture may feature more in the way of wintry conditions across at least a portion of the area. Far too early for specifics beyond this overall idea for this time period, but should wet snow work into the picture for some, the recent warm ground and marginal temperatures would likely limit pavement impacts. As colder air becomes more significant and entrenched down the road, winter weather headlines will likely become more frequent late Feb into March…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lunchtime-rambles-trends-for-the-weekend-and-early-next-week/

VIDEO: Wet Snow Accumulation For Parts Of The Region Sunday Morning; Pattern Evolution Into Early March…

Updated 01.26.24 @ 7:38a A quiet but gloomy and unseasonably mild close to the work week can be expected before a weak system skirts the region Saturday evening into predawn…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-wet-snow-accumulation-for-parts-of-the-region-sunday-morning-pattern-evolution-into-early-march/

VIDEO: Source Region Change For Our Storm Systems Between Now And Next Week; Establishing A Bar On Just How Cold We Get Next Month…

Updated 01.25.24 @ 7:36a Dense fog is present yet again this morning, but at least we’re not dealing with heavy rain. That changes later this evening as a slug of…

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