Category: Ensemble Discussion

Mar 21

March To-Date And Looking Ahead…

March to-date is running warmer and wetter than average across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the central and eastern part of the country.

Officially, Indianapolis is running 5.3° above normal, month-to-date.

For comparative purposes, our March Temperature Outlook is above. It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out by month’s end.

We anticipated a wet month, as well, into the middle MS Valley into the Ohio Valley, and eastern Lakes/ Northeast.

Indianapolis is running a little more than 1″ above normal in the rainfall department, and this will grow larger as we progress through the next (10) days.

This upcoming week, alone, we expect storm systems to deliver rain Sunday PM, Tuesday PM, and again late Thursday into Friday. Widespread central Indiana rainfall totals are currently pegged between 1″ and 1.5″, but given the pattern, it wouldn’t surprise me to see those numbers increase as we go forward. Thankfully, there aren’t any storms on the immediate horizon that look to be big severe weather producers, locally.

The remainder of March looks wetter than normal from the TN Valley, into the Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Despite this weekend’s chill, the balance of what’s left in the month should run well above average across the eastern half of the country.

More on what we think April will provide a bit later…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/21/march-to-date-and-looking-ahead/

Mar 19

VIDEO: Severe Threat Increases Overnight; Long Range Look Into Early April…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/19/video-severe-threat-increases-overnight-long-range-look-into-early-april/

Mar 18

Wednesday Morning Rambles: Midweek Storms, MJO Impacts On Late March Pattern…

I. The morning is off to a quiet, chilly start, but clouds will lower and thicken through the morning and rain will soon follow. Periods of moderate to heavy rain can be expected this afternoon into the early evening hours, including widespread 0.50″ to 1″ with a few locally heavier amounts.

Rain will become widespread across the region through the afternoon.
Most of central Indiana can expect between 0.5″ and 1″ by midnight.

II. A changeable weather day is on tap Thursday with a couple of rounds of storms expected- late morning and again during the evening and night. The initial round of storms will lift northeast across the state Thursday morning into early afternoon, courtesy of a warm front. Highs will flirt with 70° tomorrow afternoon once the storms move out.

A cold front will then sweep through the region during the overnight. Additional storms (some potentially strong to severe) will take place as the front moves through the region.

A few storms may be strong to severe as the cold front moves through Thursday evening-night.

III. We’ll turn MUCH colder, but at least the sunshine will return as we move through the weekend. Lows in the 20s can be expected.

IV. Our next storm system looks to arrive Tuesday. From this distance, it appears this will be a potent system, including strong winds and heavy rain.

V. Longer term, we continue to watch the various players align. The MJO looks to amplify and rumble into Phase 3 by late March. The movement through Phases 1-2 can at least generate transient cold for our neck of the woods before Phase 3 favors the brunt of the cold across the West. Interestingly, this is what the latest European ensemble is also showing.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/18/wednesday-morning-rambles-midweek-storms-mjo-impacts-on-late-march-pattern/

Mar 16

VIDEO: Discussing Rain Amounts And Storm Potential This Week; Colder Close To March?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/16/video-discussing-rain-amounts-and-storm-potential-this-week-colder-close-to-march/

Mar 11

VIDEO: Storms To Snow; Long Range Update Into Late March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/11/video-storms-to-snow-long-range-update-into-late-march/

Mar 07

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Discussing Timing Of Systems Next Week And Longer Range Impacts Of The MJO/ EPO…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/07/video-gorgeous-weekend-discussing-timing-of-systems-next-week-and-longer-range-impacts-of-the-mjo-epo/

Mar 06

Long Range Update: Active Mid-March Storm Track…

After a relatively quieter stretch of weather as of late, all signals ahead point towards an increasingly busy time of things over the upcoming couple of weeks. After (2) systems that will track in more of west-east fashion across the Ohio Valley during the 1st half of next week, the mean storm track will shift towards one that features low pressure systems moving out of the south-central Plains into the western Great Lakes thereafter.

What this will do is replace a couple of systems (the mid-week one likely to still dish out wintry precipitation across the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes region) during the first half of next week that feature cooler air and lighter rain with a more traditional spring flavor. The storm systems that impact our area during the mid-March time period will include heavier rain potential, along with warmer/ more humid air and the risk of stronger storms.

Just in the next 2 weeks, we count a total of (5) storm systems that will impact the region. In the face of what the latest JMA Weeklies were trying to suggest around drier conditions, it appears as if our wet March forecast will play out nicely.

Note the longer range computer model guidance from the GEFS and European Weeklies also see the wet anomalies greatest through an area that includes the Ohio Valley.

We’ll also have to begin paying attention to the potential of increased severe weather threats into the Ohio Valley with the expected mid-March storm track.

In the short-term, if you can deal with today’s snow and wintry feel, a gorgeous weekend is dialed up, including plentiful sunshine and quickly moderating temperatures (low 50s Saturday and low 60s Sunday).

More later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/06/long-range-update-active-mid-march-storm-track/

Mar 03

Tuesday Morning Rambles And Looking Back At The 2019-2020 Meteorological Winter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/03/tuesday-morning-rambles-and-looking-back-at-the-2019-2020-meteorological-winter/

Feb 28

VIDEO: Snow Returns This Afternoon; Looking Ahead To The 1st Half Of March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/28/video-snow-returns-this-afternoon-looking-ahead-to-the-1st-half-of-march/

Feb 23

VIDEO: Timing Out Rain And Transition To Snow; February Ends Cold And Fresh March Thoughts…

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