Category: Ensemble Discussion

Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…

We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.

Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).

Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.

Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday night. A few of these may be strong to severe.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.

By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.

Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.

The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/

VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/

Evening Video Update: Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead To A Chilly Open To May…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/evening-video-update-timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chilly-open-to-may/

Early-May Rumblings…

With a little over a week left in April, thoughts continue to focus more and more on May. While our official monthly outlook will come out later next week, we did want to present our early thoughts on the first week of the month.

In short, a rather persistent upper trough is expected to dominate the eastern 1/3 of the country into the 1st week of the month. This should keep things cooler than normal, overall.

This also lines up perfectly with Phase 2 of the MJO in early May. (After a week of disagreement, model data now agrees that the MJO should “flirt” with Phase 3 before cycling back into Phase 2 early May). We note this favors cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country.

From a precipitation perspective, there aren’t particularly strong signals for wetter/ drier than average conditions with Phase 2 in May- at least for the Ohio Valley.

The positive PNA, however, can support a bit more of an active storm track through our region and that’s what model data is showing from this distance.

The positive PNA, of course, also supports cooler than normal temperatures across our portion of the country…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/21/early-may-rumblings/

VIDEO: Pattern Turns More Active By The 2nd Half Of The Week; Early May Ideas…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/19/video-pattern-turns-more-active-by-the-2nd-half-of-the-week-early-may-ideas/

VIDEO: Timing Out Potential Strong Storms; Prolonged Chilly Pattern On The Horizon…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/06/video-timing-out-potential-strong-storms-prolonged-chilly-pattern-on-the-horizon/

VIDEO: Briefly Warmer And Unsettled; Reasons Behind The Significant Pattern Change Ahead…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/05/video-briefly-warmer-and-unsettled-reasons-behind-the-significant-pattern-change-ahead/

VIDEO: Gorgeous Friday; Scattered Saturday Showers And A Big Mid-Month Cold Shift…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/03/video-gorgeous-friday-scattered-saturday-showers-and-a-big-mid-month-cold-shift/

VIDEO: The Sun Returns; Weekend Chatter And Updated Long Range Thoughts…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/02/video-the-sun-returns-weekend-chatter-and-updated-long-range-thoughts/

VIDEO: Stormy, Unsettled Weekend Awaits; Colder Times As We Move Into April?

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/03/25/video-stormy-unsettled-weekend-awaits-colder-times-as-we-move-into-april/

IndyWx.com