Feb 19
A “thump” of sleet and snow will give way to strong storm potential Saturday. Looking ahead, winter appears to make a comeback during the 1st half of March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/19/tuesday-morning-video-update-from-snow-to-storms-and-looking-ahead-to-march/
Feb 18
Light snow showers will continue today, but attention is on the potential of a “thump” of snow tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Thereafter, another big storm is set to…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/18/monday-morning-video-update-accumulating-snow-tuesday-night-to-weekend-storm-potential/
Feb 17
A wintry mix this morning sets the stage for another active week of weather across central Indiana. We also look forward to late Feb and early March…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/17/sunday-morning-video-update-3/
Feb 14
We’re growing closer and closer towards the period we’ve been thinking would present one last round of cold, wintry weather (relative to normal) for the ’18-’19 season.
While the stormy idea will likely end up being correct, the significant cold that we thought would “spread out” (as opposed to being confined to the NW and northern Plains) is in jeopardy.
The overall upper air pattern over the upcoming few weeks will likely continue to be dominated by a mean trough position across the central and west, along with the persistent southeast ridge.
This will continue to result in above normal precipitation into the first week to 10 days of March, with a very active storm track.
From a temperature perspective, the baseline of our ideas being centered on the MJO appears to be the error in our forecast. It’s not that the MJO isn’t heading into Phase 8 (it’s officially there now, as noted below), but it appears other teleconnections are “trumping” this cold ingredient.
The combination of the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative Pacific North America pattern (PNA) are the drivers and are showing no signs of wanting to let go of the wheel.
The AO is forecast to remain strongly positive into early March.
The PNA is forecast to remain negative into early March.
Note how both of the above support that southeast ridge and associated relative warmth.
At one time, it appeared as if the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) would dip negative, however, that’s no longer the case.
While the active idea will come to fruition, the cold (at least to the magnitude we thought) will have a difficult time. That isn’t to say that enough cold air won’t get involved with a couple of these storms to result in wintry precipitation of significance, but rather that sustained cold will be tough to come by. Snowfall (of the heavy, wet variety) very well still could end up above normal with these moisture-laden systems over the next few weeks.
European Weekly Update
The new European Weeklies are in and follow the idea above nicely. They forecast a very stormy pattern to persist over the next few weeks with a battle ground between cold to our northwest and warmth to our southeast. We’ll have to be watchful for a couple of storm systems capable of delivering heavy amounts of precipitation. Given the teleconnection states over the next 6 weeks, it continues to look like any sort of significant wintry weather will need to take place before mid-March. Thereafter, warmer than normal times are expected, including true spring-like weather emerging. I know most can’t wait…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/14/reviewing-the-latest-european-weeklies-and-updated-long-range-thoughts/
Feb 12
Over the past month, a widespread portion of the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana, is running close to 200% of average in the precipitation department. There’s no wonder flooding issues have resulted in spots- especially across the lower OHV region.
As we look ahead, the active storm track will persist, but there will be one key missing ingredient from the better part of the past couple of weeks and that’s more in the way of sustained cold. After reviewing some of the latest data, there’s no reason to change our ongoing idea of the transitional period (in the midst of that now) giving way towards one that will feature more in the way of “lock and load” cold in that 2.18 through 3.10 time period. We expect this period will run well below average in the temperature department and above average in the snowfall category. Snow removal clients, we recommend gearing up for a busy time of things over the upcoming few weeks.
The basis of this idea initially focused squarely on the MJO and the fact that modeling was keying in on things swinging into the favorable cold phases of 8, 1, and 2.
Taken at face value, this would be the corresponding upper air look in those respective phases:
Phase 8 (coldest)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Phase 3 (cold begins to “back into the west and there’s at least a hint of the SE ridge returning)
As most longtime followers know, we put more stock into the NAO state during the latter winter and spring months, as this teleconnection can “trump” others during this time frame. We notice the NAO is forecast to trend negative as we progress through the back half of February.
A negative NAO will result in widespread cold this time of year:
After remaining strongly positive for the past couple of weeks, the AO is forecast to plunge negative as we progress through the remainder of February. Again, this increases confidence on a return of more sustained and significant cold potential.
It should also be pointed out that the active pattern should continue, especially considering the southeast ridge should put up some resistance over the upcoming couple of weeks. The latest ensemble products would agree in the mean upper air pattern:
With colder air overwhelming the pattern, more of these storms will be capable of producing impactful wintry precipitation over the upcoming few weeks. After storms grab the headline, attention will shift to the possibility of another significant arctic blast before the end of the month.
In the more immediate term, we continue to keep close tabs on the following dates for the potential of snow and/ or ice:
I. Friday night, 2/15 and Saturday, 2/16- southern half of Indiana
II. Sunday, 2/17
III. Tuesday night, 2/19 and Wednesday, 2/20
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/12/we-have-the-storms-time-to-add-the-cold/
Feb 12
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/12/all-access-video-update-timing-out-the-wintry-threats-in-the-upcoming-week-and-beyond/
Feb 08
It’s feeling just a little bit different across the region this morning- to the tune of more than 30 degrees colder than this time 24 hours ago. Cold extends south all the way to Brownsville Texas. Speaking of Texas, wintry precipitation is flying across the Hill Country this morning…
Back here on the home front, cold is the story this weekend. Highs may creep into the lower 20s this afternoon, but wind chill values will remain in the single digits below zero to 5 above through the day. Light snow showers will end and we’ll introduce more in the way of sunshine through the afternoon.
Dry conditions will remain through Sunday morning, but a storm system will organize to our southwest, eventually delivering moisture into central Indiana Sunday afternoon into the evening. We remain unimpressed with this feature, but light snow is a good bet during this timeframe. Early thinking would deliver between a coating to an inch and there’s also the potential of a light “glaze” atop the snow Sunday night as milder air aloft begins to win out.
“Dueling” low pressure systems will lead to continued unsettled conditions through Tuesday. The initial low will track into the Great Lakes while a secondary area of low pressure forms along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The end result will be a briefly milder time of things and periods of rain Monday afternoon and Tuesday (0.50″ to 1″ amounts) before cold air whips back in here Wednesday.
Lingering left over moisture will fall as scattered snow showers in the sharply colder air Wednesday.
Our next storm system will deserve a watchful eye in the Thursday-Friday time frame, but it’s far too early for specifics in this hectic pattern.
The active pattern is set to remain, along with progressively colder air as we rumble into the 2nd half of February. Above normal precipitation is anticipated, including above normal snowfall in the 2/18 through 3/10 period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/08/cold-weekend-gives-way-to-another-busy-week-of-weather/
Feb 08
The stage is set for winter’s return. With that said, the upcoming week will likely feature a “transitional” time of things before winter returns with more authority during the 2/18 through 3/10 time period.
While the positive AO will continue to be heard from in the more immediate term (forcing the active storm track into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes), this should eventually give way to a negative AO by mid and late month. Factor in a Phase 8 of the MJO and developing negative NAO and winter weather lovers will likely have a 2-3 week period of “fun and games,” including the potential of a couple significant events, along with well below normal cold late February and early March.
That said, this isn’t last year. Recall it was around this time that we were initially “faked out” by a wintry February when in all actuality it was a case of delayed, but not denied, with the worst of winter (relative to average, and in the means from a snow perspective) occurring in March and April. There are growing indications that we should actually have a spring this year, but more on that at a later time. 🙂
Let’s take a look at some of the latest long range modeling, starting with teleconnections first (always the basis of a long range forecast).
Simply put, the GEFS teleconnections line up for a return of colder than normal conditions during the middle to latter part of February. We love to see the agreement in the teleconnection states (trending negative AO (image 1) and NAO (image 3) and trending positive PNA (image 2)).
The latest European Weeklies would also agree. Note the strongly positive AO (image 1 below) at present dips negative during the 2nd half of February.
The European Weeklies like the idea of the PNA at least getting to neutral late month into early March.
Other model data paints a similar picture as noted below between the GEFS and CFSv2 Weeklies:
But, like other data would suggest, the CFSv2 is also in agreement that as early March gives way to the middle of the month, warmer times loom…
(In the event you missed it this morning, we reviewed the updated JMA Weeklies earlier here).
The latest MJO update continues to back up the idea of colder times returning mid and late February, continuing into early March, as noted below. Remember, this time of year, Phases 8 and 1 are colder phases for our neck of the woods.
To summarize, we expect this upcoming week to begin the transition back towards an overall colder and increasingly busy time of things from a wintry perspective. Those will snow removal interests should anticipate above average snowfall during the 2/18 through 3/10 time frame. The aforementioned period also should run colder than average, as well. However, those tired of winter, hang in there- hope is on the horizon once to mid-March and we should actually enjoy a pleasant spring this year after missing out in ’18!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/08/long-range-discussion-window-opens-for-a-return-of-winter-but-this-isnt-last-year/
Feb 07
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/07/thursday-afternoon-all-access-video-update/
Jan 10
Tonight’s video update focuses on the long range and reviews some of the fresh short-term data churning on this weekend’s snow storm.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/10/video-long-range-update-and-looking-at-this-weekends-snow-storm/