Category: Ensemble Discussion

About As Quiet As It Gets; Another Round Of Major League Heat On Deck As We Move Into Early September…

Updated 08.28.23 @ 12:25p

A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.

Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.

Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/28/about-as-quiet-as-it-gets-another-round-of-major-league-heat-on-deck-as-we-move-into-early-september/

Endless Summer As We Navigate The Initial Month Of Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.27.23 @ 6:51a

We’re only a few days away from meteorological fall. Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature will provide “bonus” heat and plenty of dry times as we rumble through the next few weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to “wake up” and amplify into the notorious warm phases for September.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is going to crash negative and fits right into the warm pattern driver theme.

Medium and long range modeling shows the upper ridge building and expanding northeast with time over the next couple weeks. Unseasonably hot weather will accompany this pattern evolution.

Widespread drier than normal conditions should also prevail through the upcoming few weeks.

Even as we progress into the final few days of the month, extended long range guidance maintains the warm to hot theme.

It’s really not until we get to October that the pattern should begin to change in more significant fashion and make up for lost time with respect to cool, crisp air…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/27/endless-summer-as-we-navigate-the-initial-month-of-meteorological-fall/

VIDEO: BIG Changes In The Week Ahead…

Updated 08.26.23 @ 6a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/26/video-big-changes-in-the-week-ahead/

VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Storm Chances; BIG Heat Takes A Back Seat Early Next Week…

Updated 08.23.23 @ 7:50a While the heat and humidity grab headlines (and rightfully so), we’ll have to keep close eyes on the potential of outflow boundaries offering up some cooling…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/23/video-keeping-an-eye-on-storm-chances-big-heat-takes-a-back-seat-early-next-week/

VIDEO: Heat & Humidity Grab Headlines For Now; Scattered Strong Late Week Storm Potential As Heat Breaks?

Updated 08.22.23 4:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/22/video-heat-scattered-strong-late-week-storm-potential-as-heat-breaks/

VIDEO: Dry Times; Serious Heat This Week Trends Much More Refreshing By The Weekend…

Updated 08.21.23 @ 7:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/21/video-dry-times-serious-heat-this-week-trends-much-more-refreshing-by-the-weekend/

VIDEO: Heat Breaks Over The Upcoming Weekend…

Updated 08.20.23 @ 8:17a

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VIDEO: Pleasant Now But Heat Builds In The Week Ahead; Quick Look At September…

Updated 08.19.23 @ 9:40a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/19/video-pleasant-now-but-heat-builds-in-the-week-ahead-quick-look-at-september/

Cold Front Offers Up PM Storms & Reinforces Pleasant Weekend Airmass; Heat Is On Next Week…

Updated 08.17.23 @ 6:04a

A quiet start to the day will give way to a noisy lunchtime period as a line of thunderstorms drops in from the northwest.

Vivid lightning, brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours can be expected.

The Storm Prediction Center has hoisted a ‘marginal’ risk of severe today. Widespread severe weather isn’t anticipated with this frontal passage.

Our unseasonably cool, pleasant airmass we’ve enjoyed the past couple days will be reinforced with this frontal passage. Lows tomorrow and Saturday morning will dip into the upper 40s in outlying areas. Dry and sunny conditions will compliment the early fall-like air. Soak it up as a period of unseasonably hot weather still awaits next week.

The byproduct of the sprawling ridge above? A week ahead with highs well into the 90s and an extended period of dry, sunny weather.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/17/cold-front-offers-up-pm-storms-heat-is-on-next-week/

The Theme Of The Summer Rolls Along…

Updated 08.16.23 @ 7:26a

Most Hoosiers woke up to a hint of autumn this morning. We’re getting to that point on the calendar where we typically hear that most aren’t ready for the cooler days of autumn that are literally on the doorstep. If you find yourself in that club, take heart in knowing the hottest air of the season awaits next week as an upper level ridge expands overhead for a period of time.

This should feature multiple days next week with high temperatures into the low-mid 90s, however, this will at least be a “drier” heat compared to most other spells this summer. Most, if not all, of next week will be free of any rain along with plentiful sunshine. Aside from the big time heat, a quiet week is in store.

In looking at the long range charts, we see something similar with the ‘mean’ ridge position as it retrogrades west towards the Day 10-15 period. This should pull the more significant heat west and open us up for wetter times as we push into early September.

Perhaps the threat of some late summer/ early autumn ridge riding storm complexes are in our future? Regardless, while the upcoming week will feature significant heat, like so many other patterns this summer, there continues to be a light at the end of the hot tunnel before the “hot” pattern begins.

  • Another note that will require our attention over the course of the upcoming couple weeks? The tropics. After a very quiet time of things, it sure appears as if activity will be on the uptick just in time for us to approach the peak of the season.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/16/the-theme-of-the-summer-rolls-along/

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