Category: Ensemble Discussion

Updated 08.07.25 @ 6:50a

We’ve enjoyed a nice reprieve from the traditional conditions throughout the Dog Days of Summer. We’re running more than 3° below average to open the month, and large scale cooler than normal conditions have dominated throughout the eastern half of the country to open the month.

As we push forward, temperatures (and humidity levels) will return to much closer to what we’re accustomed to for August. The most persistent and significant warmth (relative to average) will be located across the Plains over the next couple of weeks.

While it won’t be overly wet (likely not as wet as the GEFS below, but wetter than the drier European counterpart), timely rains can be used to describe the regime through the balance of the upcoming couple of weeks.

While typical splash and dash storm coverage can be expected through the weekend, better chance of more widespread showers and storms will arrive early to mid next week as a frontal boundary sags south into the region.