While we remain bullish on a warmer response in the Week 2-3 time period, the longevity of any sort of “warm-up” is the point we’re trying to drive home. The MJO is still forecast to amplify into Phase 6 just past May 10th. As a result, our stubborn call remains on modeling being “forced” to correct warmer during this time.
As it is, we’re in a camp of our own with that call based off Thursday’s long range update. Note both the new European Weeklies and JMA Weeklies show the eastern trough remaining.
At the very least, it’s an interesting test case on our hands that we’ll be able to see play out in real time.
Even if we do see the Week 2-3 warm up, it’s likely to be short-lived as the MJO continues to rumble into cooler phases and the teleconnections (namely the EPO and NAO) tag-team neutral to negative through the bulk of May and into early June.
The end result after any sort of warmer response during the aforementioned time period is likely for at least a slightly cooler pattern to return compared to average. The relatively drier pattern will also trend wetter late May into early June.
At the end of the day, we still see a warmer surge taking hold, locally, between Weeks 2-3. However cooler and wetter conditions likely settle back in as we navigate the back half of May and into early June at least.
Is this a hint of the times as summer matures? Not out of the question this year as we flip the page to Nino conditions…
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I want to give a couple examples of significant conflicting signals- both short and long-term. The end result is a situation where long range, climate, and seasonal models are likely to have a very tough time not only in the medium to long range (2-4 week period), but thinking seasonally, as well (winter and next spring).
Short-term
To start, let’s look at the EPO. While strongly positive at present, both the EPS and GEFS pictured below take the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, negative in the coming couple of weeks.
A negative EPO pattern favors a trough across the eastern portion of the country, especially here in our neck of the woods, with western ridging.
All well and good, right? WRONG. The MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is forecast to stall out into early October in Phase 1.
This time of year, Phase 1 argues strongly for eastern ridging and well above normal warmth while the western portion of the country can experience early wintry conditions.
Talk about contradiction! That’s what makes weather so fun and fascinating. Expect to be humbled often and to always learn! At various times of the year, select teleconnections can mean a lot more than other times of the year. For example, during the summer and fall, we lean heavily on the EPO, PNA, and MJO (if amplified). During the winter and spring, it’s important to take into account what the AO and NAO have to say. It’s important to know when to “pick and choose” when to use particular teleconnections… Furthermore, the various MJO phases (1-8) mean drastically different things at different times of the year. While lovers of chilly fall conditions have grown to hate an amplified Phase 1, they have to love it come winter (shown below). Just look at that difference!
Before jumping ahead to another example of “contradicting signals,” we’re confident the amplified MJO Phase 1 will carry the day through the short to medium range period. Note the strong agreement between the EPS and GEFS below with respect to temperature anomalies in the 6-10 day period.
With that said, there will be challenges within (the big difference as early as this weekend between the GFS and European operational data). A lot of that has to do with the “fight” between the EPO and MJO to take control.
As all of this unfolds across the East, the west will begin to cash in on early winter. Well below average cold and snowy conditions will begin to make headlines over the weekend into next week across not only the Rockies, but some of the low ground, as well. Should the MJO swing into Phase 2 (and I think it will towards mid-Oct), then watch out. We’ll be looking at a rather significant shift towards a much colder feel- and it’ll sting even more so with the late season heat over the better part of the next couple of weeks.
Flipping the page to winter (remember, our prelim. winter outlook will be posted later this week) and the contradiction continues. Upon looking at the current SST configuration, one could easily argue we’re talking about a La Nina winter unfolding ahead.
Meanwhile, the current SOI would suggest we’re in a moderate El Nino.
If you think this can’t wreck havoc even on the short-term forecast pattern, think again…
To close, while the conflicting data can create headaches at times, it’s more fascinating than ever trying to sift through the data and build our forecast(s). It’d be wise to expect more wild swings ahead- leave it to us to try and minimize the impacts of those swings in your day-to-day personal and professional lives. Accordingly, it’s also ultra-important to factor in additional items, such as solar and PDO into the equation for the upcoming winter.
Speaking of, without giving too much away, if I’m a winter weather fan (and I am), I wouldn’t worry in the least about the current warmth… 😉
