Category: El Niño

Sep 23

Something Doesn’t Jive…

I want to give a couple examples of significant conflicting signals- both short and long-term. The end result is a situation where long range, climate, and seasonal models are likely to have a very tough time not only in the medium to long range (2-4 week period), but thinking seasonally, as well (winter and next spring).

Short-term

To start, let’s look at the EPO. While strongly positive at present, both the EPS and GEFS pictured below take the EPO, or East Pacific Oscillation, negative in the coming couple of weeks.

A negative EPO pattern favors a trough across the eastern portion of the country, especially here in our neck of the woods, with western ridging.

All well and good, right? WRONG. The MJO, or Madden Julian Oscillation, is forecast to stall out into early October in Phase 1.

This time of year, Phase 1 argues strongly for eastern ridging and well above normal warmth while the western portion of the country can experience early wintry conditions.

Talk about contradiction! That’s what makes weather so fun and fascinating. Expect to be humbled often and to always learn! At various times of the year, select teleconnections can mean a lot more than other times of the year. For example, during the summer and fall, we lean heavily on the EPO, PNA, and MJO (if amplified). During the winter and spring, it’s important to take into account what the AO and NAO have to say. It’s important to know when to “pick and choose” when to use particular teleconnections… Furthermore, the various MJO phases (1-8) mean drastically different things at different times of the year. While lovers of chilly fall conditions have grown to hate an amplified Phase 1, they have to love it come winter (shown below). Just look at that difference!

Before jumping ahead to another example of “contradicting signals,” we’re confident the amplified MJO Phase 1 will carry the day through the short to medium range period. Note the strong agreement between the EPS and GEFS below with respect to temperature anomalies in the 6-10 day period.

With that said, there will be challenges within (the big difference as early as this weekend between the GFS and European operational data). A lot of that has to do with the “fight” between the EPO and MJO to take control.

As all of this unfolds across the East, the west will begin to cash in on early winter. Well below average cold and snowy conditions will begin to make headlines over the weekend into next week across not only the Rockies, but some of the low ground, as well. Should the MJO swing into Phase 2 (and I think it will towards mid-Oct), then watch out. We’ll be looking at a rather significant shift towards a much colder feel- and it’ll sting even more so with the late season heat over the better part of the next couple of weeks.

Flipping the page to winter (remember, our prelim. winter outlook will be posted later this week) and the contradiction continues. Upon looking at the current SST configuration, one could easily argue we’re talking about a La Nina winter unfolding ahead.

Meanwhile, the current SOI would suggest we’re in a moderate El Nino.

If you think this can’t wreck havoc even on the short-term forecast pattern, think again…

To close, while the conflicting data can create headaches at times, it’s more fascinating than ever trying to sift through the data and build our forecast(s). It’d be wise to expect more wild swings ahead- leave it to us to try and minimize the impacts of those swings in your day-to-day personal and professional lives. Accordingly, it’s also ultra-important to factor in additional items, such as solar and PDO into the equation for the upcoming winter.

Speaking of, without giving too much away, if I’m a winter weather fan (and I am), I wouldn’t worry in the least about the current warmth… 😉

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/something-doesnt-jive/

May 09

2019 IndyWx.com Summer Outlook

2019 is absolutely flying by! Before you know it, we’ll be releasing our 2019-2020 Winter Outlook. Kidding- sort of. 😉

Is a blazing hot summer in store for central Indiana, or perhaps wet and cool? Let’s dig in to the details…

As we look at current sea surface temperature anomalies, a few items stand out:

I. We expect a weak El Nino to continue through meteorological summer (June through August), and perhaps even into next winter.

II. MDR (Main Development Region for tropical entities) is running cooler than normal and would suggest an overall “less busy” hurricane season from a long-track perspective

III. SSTs are running much warmer than normal in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. This is important as while the long-track tropical systems may not be as frequent, we’ll have to remain on guard for the potential of active times closer to home this season. Additionally, these warmer anomalies tend to lead us to believe precipitation will run above normal across coastal areas into the Deep South this summer.

Let’s look at some of the climate computer model data for the summer season:

The latest IRI model (International Research Institute) shows relative warmth along the coastal areas and the west with greatest wet anomalies across the Northwest.

The CFSv2 is leaning towards an anomalously wet summer across a widespread portion of the country (exception being New England).

As we review the CanSIPS, it likes the idea of a cool, wet summer across the Heartland with warmth along the coasts.

The European Seasonal Forecast has a seasonal summer for most of the country with warmth along the coasts, and a reflection of wetter anomalies across the northern Plain into the Northwest.

(The JMA Seasonal hadn’t updated as of this post).

After taking into account the various seasonal model data above (which is in remarkable overall agreement for a LR forecast idea), along with the current SST configuration, and analog data, this is how we see the Summer of 2019 playing out.

Specific to central Indiana, we’re forecasting a rather wet and cooler than average summer. Frequent storm systems should keep things active around these parts for the balance of the summer season, with the temperature scale tipping a touch cooler than normal.

While the number of named storms should be down compared to normal (highlighted by the Euro seasonal precipitation idea), we’ll have to keep close tabs on the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast for the potential of “last minute” development. Those warmer than normal sea surface temperatures lurking off the coast does warrant concern for at least the threat of another active year from a landfall perspective.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019-indywx-com-summer-outlook/

Feb 16

2019 Spring Outlook…

2019 IndyWx.com Spring Outlook

Forecaster: Team; Date Issued: 02.16.19

Last spring was a tale of two seasons in itself. March (featured a foot of snow) and April were significantly colder than normal and then we shifted things to summer in May (the last month of meteorological spring was close to 10 degrees above normal). As a whole, it was a quiet severe weather season.

Despite the wild swings, at the end of the day, things “balanced out” nicely across the central Ohio Valley, including central Indiana.

As we look ahead to what the 2019 version holds, here are a few headlines that have our attention:

I. Weak Nino is behaving more like a Nina (Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern can be thanked for this).

II. Neutral NAO is expected

III. Neutral PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)

In addition, we’re paying special attention to the SST configuration in the Gulf of Mexico. A warmer than average GOM can most certainly lead to a more “hyper” severe weather season as spring gets going.

The late winter/ early spring drought monitor can give a hint where early warmth may try and get going. However, this year, we can’t rely on this tool as the Plains and East, including the heart of the #AGbelt, have seen copious amounts of moisture over the winter.

Drought Monitor as of 2/14/19
December 2018 Precipitation Anomalies
January 2019 Precipitation Anomalies

Let’s look at what the model guidance is printing out for meteorological spring:

JMA

March
April
May

CFSv2

JAMSTEC

European Seasonal

Summary

We anticipate a slightly warmer than average spring season across not only central Indiana, but the Mid West and Ohio Valley region, as a whole. A weak El Nino is expected to persist into the upcoming summer and the conditions typically associated with such should eventually show themselves (as opposed to more of a Nina-like flavor now) through the spring. We agree with the consensus of model guidance above that March is likely to feature the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, and that’s primarily due to what should be a colder 1st half of the month before more bonafide spring conditions take hold the 2nd half of the month. Precipitation is anticipated to run near average, if not slightly below average, levels through the spring. As for severe weather, we expect a much busier season than last year, especially with the warm SSTs lurking in the Gulf of Mexico.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019-spring-outlook/

Jan 04

Trying to Answer Questions When Winter Will Show Up…

Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.

Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.

We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:

  1. Southern IN this afternoon and evening
  2. All of the state Monday
  3. All of the state next Friday into Saturday

As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.

Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:

  • Sudden stratospheric warming event and potential polar vortex displacement, etc.
  • SOI flipping from a Niña-like state to one we’d expect to see associated with an El Niño
  • Active MJO remains

There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.

Today

Mid-January

Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.

Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.

The PNA rises…

Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.

This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.

The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/trying-to-answer-questions-when-winter-will-show-up/

Dec 20

Deeper Look Into The Long Range…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/