Category: El Niño

Nov 10

Still Eyeing Mid Week Storms; Windy And Colder To Close The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 7.07.33 AMHighlights:

  • Wednesday night storms
  • Very windy to close the week
  • Colder Friday

The overall set-up over the next couple days will feature a strong autumn storm coming off the Rockies (today), crossing the Plains (Wednesday), and heading northeast into the Great Lakes to offer up some “fresh water fury!” (Thursday).

Here’s the track of our storm, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

TueEvening

WedEvening

ThrEveningWe still need to monitor things closely for the potential of severe weather Wednesday evening, but latest data would suggest a lower chance of severe, overall.  Certainly not worth letting your guard down, but the lack of moisture return and timing are both on our sides in this particular event.  Localized damaging straight line winds are still of greatest concern of any of the severe elements across central IN and this would be for Wednesday night.

Here’s a look at the latest simulated radar for 10p Wednesday.  As we always say, don’t pay particularly close attention to the precise time.  This should be used as guidance as what the radar may look like Wednesday evening.

10pradarWedAs mentioned above, the speed, timing, and lack of moisture return strongly argue against significant rainfall with this storm.  We’ll forecast around 0.25″ with locally heavier totals in storms.  Not a big deal from a precipitation perspective.

What is a big deal is the wind on the backside of the low as northwest gusts really crank in the Thursday-Friday time frame (30-40 MPH).  Needless to say, Thursday isn’t a day to wear a hat. 🙂

Longer term, data continues to argue against any sort of sustained chill through the rest of November.  We note the SOI is actually positive right now.  This is certainly unusual with the ongoing El Nino and well above the base state (a warm sign).

Screen Shot 2015-11-10 at 6.55.51 AM

 

 

 

The MJO is also projected to rumble through the warm Phases of 2 and 3 over the next few weeks.  Note these are overall warmer than normal phases in November.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/10/still-eyeing-mid-week-storms-windy-and-colder-to-close-the-week/

Oct 19

I Like It Euro…

We posted our annual IndyWx.com Winter Outlook last Saturday.  If you haven’t read it yet, or want some good material to put you to sleep :-), feel free to click here.

Tonight we see the latest seasonal long range European model shifting the Nino to more of a central-based El Nino as we rumble deeper and deeper into winter.  This is another indicator that mid and late winter could be cold.  In any event, here you go:

Nov, Dec, Jan

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.13 PMDec, Jan, Feb

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.28 PMJan, Feb, March

Screen Shot 2015-10-19 at 11.45.39 PMThere sure have been a lot of comparisons of this El Nino to that of ’97-’98.  That’s fine in talking strength, but the overall SST profile both in the Pacific AND Atlantic is vastly different.

Hmmm…time to go dream about snow storms.  – Combine a positive PDO with a central-based El Nino and there could very well be plenty of wintry “fun and games” in the months ahead.

Click here for more from the fantastic European Centre For Medium Range Forecasts site.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/19/i-like-it-euro/

Sep 22

Looking Back At Summer And Ahead…

Meteorological fall began September 1st, but astronomical fall begins tomorrow.  When we look back at summer, we note that it was a cool, wet summer with bookend dry periods. June…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/22/looking-back-at-summer-and-ahead/

Sep 16

Updated JAMSTEC…

6:51a, 9.16.15 I tried my best to stay up late enough last night to post this update, but decided to finally turn in after nearly two collisions with me falling…

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Sep 14

Monday Morning Weather Rambles…

September is still running much warmer than normal, despite the recent well below average regime. See the temperature anomalies over the past (7) days:    and the month-to-date:      …

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Sep 08

More Winter Chatter…

Now that we’re in September (where does time go?!) we wanted to touch base on some of our latest thinking as we rumble closer to winter… * Our official 2015-2016…

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Aug 22

Saturday Morning: A Look Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date.  As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.

* Click on any image to enlarge.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August temperature departure- month-to-date.

August precipitation departure- month-to-date

August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:

2015 to date has been cool central and east:

4The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging.  It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO).  Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…

10Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east.  It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.

11As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening.  A few of these storms could reach strong levels.  The culprit?  Another strong late August cold front.  Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.

5Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.

6

7Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.

3We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.

9However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…

8Images credited to the following:

  • weatherbell.com
  • http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
  • http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#seasonMaps

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/22/saturday-morning-a-look-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

Aug 13

Thoughts Shifting To Fall And Winter…

We may only be in mid August, but the IndyWx.com office is busy putting together initial thoughts around fall and winter (it’ll be here before you know it)! The upcoming…

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Jul 27

August Outlook

Before we dive into what we expect for the month of August, here’s a look at where we stand so far for July (with 4 days left as of this post).

This was our July forecast upper air pattern, issued 6.29:

July2015UAHere’s a look at temperature anomalies through 7.27:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomWhile overnight lows have been running warm with all of the clouds and moisture, daytime highs have been significantly below average:

tmax30dydevWith four days left in the month, it’s already been the wettest month on record at IND.  The Corn Belt, as a whole, has been quite wet month-to-date.

nws_precip_conus2_mtd nws_precip_indy_mtd precip30dydevAs we progress into August (where does time go) we think we continue in an active pattern, locally, biased cooler than normal and wetter than normal.

AugustUA2015While modeling disagrees with the specifics in regards to the timing, most mid to long range modeling does agree on the overall idea of the hot dome (ridge) backing west and setting up shop over the southwest portion of the country early August which will put our region in (you guessed it) the favorable northwest flow for active weather.  Similar to July, disturbances will ride the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest and offer up plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms.  That’s not to say we’re looking at setting another record for greatest amount of rain within a month, but it is saying precipitation should be above average yet again.

From time to time the ridge will attempt to expand northeast, but we don’t think it’s potentially until the last portion of the month before the ridge has much chance to encompass our region for any staying power more than a few days.  We suggest getting used to this 500mb look:

EarlyAugThe latest NAEFS and CFSv2 highlights the cooler than normal period we should undergo early August (especially after the 5th).

wk1.wk2_20150726.NAsfcT2015072712_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186The latest European Weeklies suggest there may be a window for a “calmer” regime after the 25th.  That said, it’s a rather volatile pattern.

Yet another tool we’ve been keeping a close eye on the past few months has been the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) as it’s been a big help in tipping us off for prolonged wet weather.  Note the consistent negative SOI:

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World

Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think the relentless wet weather pattern “keeps on keepin’ on” as we progress through August.  It’s very interesting to note the dynamics at play between the strengthening El Nino and warm northeast PAC waters… More on that, and the implications we feel for fall and winter, in the weeks and months ahead. 🙂

July2015SST

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/27/august-outlook-2/

Jul 23

Needed Break From The Rain…

It’s been a very wet July across these parts. Specifically talking about Indianapolis, we’re running a whopping 8.5″ above normal, month-to-date!     Cool and wet has been the theme across…

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