Category: El Niño

Evening Video Update: The Trend Is Your Friend, Winter Fans…

Updated 11.21.23 @ 7:30p

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/21/evening-video-update-the-trend-is-your-friend-winter-fans/

LR Update: Thanksgiving And Early December…

Updated 11.09.23 @ 10:49a

With Thanksgiving only 2 weeks from today (incredibly hard to believe), we’re able to start to get a better idea on the overall weather pattern as the “official” kickoff to the holiday season nears. The first point we want to drive home is that we should begin to see a much more active regime evolve during this 2 week period. From a temperature perspective, the pattern overall continues to look milder than average, but there will be a couple opportunities for transient pops of colder air, potentially around the all-important Thanksgiving holiday, itself.

Note how modeling sees the more active pattern evolving over the next 3-4 weeks (green represents above normal precipitation). – A significant change not only for our neck of the woods but certainly for our friends and neighbors down south (badly needed for a region suffering an expanding drought. Speaking of which, all of the dry/ droughty southern tier should reverse in significant fashion as the active Nino storm track gets going over the coming months. As the pattern continues to evolve into the ‘24 spring and summer, the south-central severe drought will be erased.

Despite attempts of troughs to roll into the Ohio Valley, they will struggle with staying power over the next 3-4 weeks. The latest JMA Weekly product and Euro/ GFS ensemble blend looks very solid given where the pattern drivers currently reside.

Week 1

Week 2

Weeks 3-4

The pattern drivers of a primarily positive EPO, negative PNA, and MJO in 8/1 (all unchanged from our post earlier this week) all suggest a predominant eastern ridge, western trough placement over the upcoming 2-3 weeks.

We’ll continue to keep close tabs on the regime, especially centered on 11/22 – 11/26.

Make it a great Thursday!

Side note: Confidence is increasing that this Nino will evolve into a central-based event which will up the chances of colder/ snowier prospects come late December and on into January. More on that later next week in a more extensive update specific to this transition.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/09/lr-update-thanksgiving-and-early-december/

Pre-Dinner Rambles: Halloween Snow And New Winter “Tidbit”…

Updated 10.30.23 @ 5:36p

I. Vigorous upper level energy will dive southeast and impact our Halloween weather. Many will see their 1st snowflakes of the season (at least those who didn’t today) tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. This is the type setup that will lead to localized heavier squalls within the broader area of snow showers and I imagine this will carry deep into Tuesday night- longer than what most high resolution guidance currently suggests.

II. Cold and wind will also make for bitter conditions by Halloween standards. Trock or treaters will certainly need the layers under those costumes tomorrow night as wind chills fall into the 10s at times. Gusts up to 30-40 MPH will also create for “spooky” conditions at times.

III. New long range, “seasonal” data continues to suggest we’re heading for a Modoki Nino event. If this does, indeed, verify then we’ll look for colder and potentially snowier trends to take hold (certainly compared to a “traditional” Nino event) towards late December and on into the middle of winter. To no surprise, this should also play into some other drivers that suggest we should see more in the way of high latitude blocking periods this winter, compared to the past few. Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/30/pre-dinner-rambles-halloween-snow-and-new-winter-tidbit/

VIDEO: New Seasonal Guidance “Ups The Ante” For Upcoming Winter; Unsettled Close To The Work Week…

Updated 10.17.23 @ 5a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/17/video-new-seasonal-guidance-ups-the-ante-for-upcoming-winter-unsettled-close-to-the-work-week/

Trend Hasn’t Been Our Friend As Of Late Around The Holidays; Reason To Believe This Year Is Different?

Updated 10.07.23 @ 6:09a

Though officially, we’re only a couple weeks into autumn, attention here has begun to shift towards the potential predominant pattern as we push into the holiday season.

A quick, simple look back over the most recent November and December patterns is a sight that generates anxiety for most winter lovers. At a time when the majority of even non-winter lovers would like snow (i.e. the holidays), well above normal temperatures, and almost record warmth has become all too common over the years.

November 2015-2022

December 2015-2022

Is there reason to believe that could be different this year, especially with our base transition to El Nino? Simply put, not so fast my friend. El Nino winters are notorious for getting off to slower, warm starts. Our research shows that many times November can start cold but that the December pattern flips warmer around these parts. That’s, obviously, not to say it “has” to be that way. Many other factors contribute to the overall regime, but just that when you simply bundle all 1st year Nino events together, it’s more typical than not to find things play out such as illustrated above.

Let’s take a more specific look at our analog package (’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16) and see what that suggests may be in store as we begin to set our eyes on the holidays.

November: Slightly above normal, locally. Unseasonably cold west and unseasonably warm New England are the headliners.

December: Greatest warm anomalies are centered over the Ohio Valley, in what otherwise is a large-scale warmer than normal regime from the Plains east.

January: The pattern begins to really flip around with cold bleeding southeast as the northern Plains and Northwest turn warmer than normal.

What does this all mean to me? While there’s only one that knows the future, if I was a betting man, I’d lean towards another holiday season that features above normal temperatures and most likely a greater than normal chance of below average December snowfall. I’d anticipate a few cold shots in November and the possibility of one or 2 accumulating snow events that gives way to the overall warmer idea in December. There’s always the chance the pattern begins to shift that last week of December for the colder January look… That’s the hope we’ll leave you with in this post in what otherwise will likely be a warmer than normal month as a whole.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/07/trend-hasnt-been-our-friend-as-of-late-around-the-holidays-reason-to-believe-this-year-is-different/

’23 – ’24 Winter Outlook: Changing of the Guards…

Published 10.01.23 @ 7a

We do it every year around this time and while some years have certainly been tougher than others, there’s always something special about this time on the calendar. Perhaps it’s the cooler days, the longer nights, the return of football season, or better yet the thoughts (at least to this winter lover) of the first flakes of the season that loom in the not too distant future. However you view this time of year, I hope you can find a way to enjoy the upcoming winter season.

Like most years, there will likely be a little something for everyone, and before diving in too far, we always like to remind folks that long range forecasting is always a challenge, albeit a welcome one at that. While there’s simply no way to be certain about specifics 2-5 months in advance, more times than not, we can at least provide an idea of the overall upper pattern that should generate predominant precipitation and temperature regimes in the colder months ahead.

Without further ado, lets dive in…

We’re in uncharted territory, at least compared to the past (3) years. After a rare triple dip Nina event, a strong El Nino is here and anticipated to stick around, at least in a moderate fashion, through the winter.

It’s important to note that not one Nino event is identical to another. What’s of particular interest with this year’s event is that a lot of the longer range model guidance begins to weaken the Nino as we get into the middle and latter part of the winter, while migrating the warmest anomalies west (more into the central region: region 3 and region 3.4). By the way, here’s an interesting article that sheds more light on the various regions and indices.

Ultimately, that is the golden ticket to what this winter becomes in my opinion. While far from etched in stone, it’s my belief that when you have a Nino event coming off it’s peak during the winter, there’s a better opportunity to get the warmest anomalies more into the central regions as the weakening takes place. Should this happen then we’re talking about increasing prospects of cold and snow. Meanwhile, if the warmest SST anomalies remain tucked into 1+2, it’ll likely be another ugly winter for snow and cold lovers.

On that note, the past 5 winters have only produced an average 14.1″ of snow in Indianapolis. Only ’20-’21 was close to average at 22.2″. To add salt to the wound, if you take out the record snowiest ’13-’14 (whopping 52.2″), our 10 year snow average is 12.6″.

Lets take a look at some of the various modeling for the upcoming meteorological winter (December through February).

JMA Seasonal

European Seasonal

Canadian Seasonal

The seasonal guidance shown above is the most aggressive, collectively, I can recall for quite some time from this distance. Note each of the models above indicate the opportunity for blocking with the active southern stream underneath that we come to expect in an El Nino.

We built our analog set (first shared with Clients on 9/3) with the baseline including 1st year moderate to strong Ninos.

  • 1957-1958
  • 1972-1973
  • 1991-1992
  • 2002-2003
  • 2009-2010
  • 1982-1983
  • 2015-2016

In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.

A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:

Temperatures

Precipitation

What does this all mean to me: Central Indiana

Last year we thought the winter would get off to a much quicker, harsher start than years past. While November didn’t disappoint from a snowfall perspective (2.8″ compared to an average of 0.8″), it was still a slightly warmer than normal month. The cold came in December, but it was a “dry” cold with below normal snowfall (1.6″ compared to an average of 6.4″).

The more I look at trends for this winter, the more I like the idea of increased high latitude blocking compared to years past along with the evolving, more central based Nino event. With that said, recent trends have me a bit hesitant to go “all in” on the potential of this winter. We’ll lean slightly warmer than normal with slightly below normal snowfall for the winter as a whole. That said, local perception will be interesting as I envision a snowier winter compared to the past couple years. While the primary storm track should be suppressed this year with below normal precipitation, thanks to the El Nino, that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a snowless winter.

The numbers please…

Temperatures: December through February averaging 0.5° to 1° above normal as a whole

Precipitation: Below normal precipitation is expected through the 3 month winter period (75% of normal is our call) with slightly below normal snowfall. We forecast 20″ of snow (1st flake to last flake).

Whatever the winter provides, I hope you and your family enjoy and stay safe!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/10/01/23-24-winter-outlook-changing-of-the-guards/

VIDEO: Tuesday Frontal Passage; Reviewing New Seasonal Data For Winter…

Updated 09.10.23 @ 10:46a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/10/video-tuesday-frontal-passage-reviewing-new-seasonal-data-for-winter/

Long Range Chatter; NEW JMA Data On Winter…

Updated 09.07.23 @ 7:15a

September has opened significantly warmer than normal across the northern Plains and to a lesser extent into the southern Plains and along the northern tier. Indianapolis is running 5° above average through the 6th. We’ll chip away some at those toasty anomalies over the course of the next week, but still anticipate the month finishing slightly warmer than normal as a whole. We’re also running dry- more than half an inch below normal to open the month.

As we look ahead to the upcoming couple of weeks, the combination of the Madden Julian Oscillation sneaking into Phase 4, combined with a strongly positive PNA should help lead to more of a trough across the eastern portion of the country.

The NEW JMA Weeklies show that trough and associated cooler pattern (not cold by any means, but instead slightly below normal overall) taking up shop in the Week 1 and Week 2 time period below.

Week 1

Week 2

The latest ensemble guidance is also on board with the more seasonal look, especially compared to how the month opened.

Week 1

Week 2

Overall, the dry start to the month is anticipated to persist through the remainder of September as a whole.

Jumping ahead, the JMA seasonal data also updated today. In short, the model shows a warm fall giving way to a warm start to the winter before potentially taking a colder mid and late winter turn. Still far too early to put much stock in the specifics from this distance. The next couple of months will be very telling with the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest central PAC sea surface temperatures along with modeled trends deeper into the winter. Long ways to go; stay tuned…

JMA meteorological (Dec. through Feb.) winter idea:

Upper air pattern
Temperature anomalies
Precipitation anomalies

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/07/long-range-chatter-new-jma-data-on-winter/

VIDEO: ’23 – ’24 Snow Nugget; Rain Chances Return Tuesday Into Wednesday…

Updated 09.04.23 @ 8:58a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/04/video-23-24-snow-nugget-rain-chances-return-tuesday-into-wednesday/

Initial Analog Set For Winter ’23 – ’24…

Updated 09.03.23 @ 9:22a

The extended stretch of quiet weather has given us time to finalize the initial set of analogs we’ll lean in on for the upcoming winter. Speaking of that, our annual Winter Outlook will be published Friday, October 27th.

While long range seasonal models differ on the placement of warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we’re refraining from going “all-in” on a modoki Nino event as of now. This is something that no doubt will have our attention as we go through the course of the next several weeks. It’ll be interesting to watch the trends. The modoki, or central based, warm event would go a long way in upping the ante for a colder, stormier winter, locally. This is something that’s possible but we still have more questions than answers with how this evolves.

SST configuration as of September 1, 2023:

Our initial set of analogs includes the following years:

  • 1957-1958
  • 1972-1973
  • 1991-1992
  • 2002-2003
  • 2009-2010
  • 1982-1983
  • 2015-2016

We’re looking at 1st year Nino events of moderate to strong intensity. (Most modeling peaks this event in the +1.5 to +2 range in Nino region 3.4). In addition, we’re also looking at critical SST configuration in the NPAC and northwest Atlantic. Out of the list above, heaviest focus as of now centers on ’82-’83, ’91-’92, ’02-’03, ’09-’10, and ’15-’16.

A blend of those years gives us the following temperature and precipitation pattern for meteorological winter:

Temperature

Precipitation

There’s a lot more that goes into our seasonal outlooks than simply taking a blend of analogs, but this will serve as a nice starting point from this distance. It’ll be very interesting to watch the migration (or lack thereof) of warmest SSTs currently “tucked in” to Nino regions 1+2 and 3 into potentially a more central, or region 3.4 event.

Make it a great Labor Day weekend and know we’ll have much more to come in the weeks ahead on our winter ’23 – ’24 thoughts…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/09/03/initial-analog-set-for-winter-23-24/

IndyWx.com