Category: ClientBrief

Feb 24

Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow and wind

When: Wednesday into Thursday morning

Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night

Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required

There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.

As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.

One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-threat-of-impactful-wintry-event-increasing-as-southeast-shift-continues/

Feb 11

Client Brief: Time To Gas Up The Snow Plows…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A winter storm will impact the Ohio Valley through the 2nd half of the work week.

What: Accumulating snow and sleet

When: Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Lower 30s falling into the 10s by Thursday evening

Wind: Southeast 10-15 MPH Wednesday afternoon shifting to the north Wednesday night and northwest Thursday. Winds will gust 20-30 MPH Thursday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate by Thursday evening

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing will be required

A busy 48 hours awaits for central Indiana as a winter storm begins to impact the region. Mid and high level cloudiness will continue spreading over the region this evening and give way to a lowering and thickening cloud deck overnight and Wednesday morning. This is all thanks to a developing area of low pressure over the Ark-la-tex region. This surface low will track northeast into the TN Valley Wednesday and into the central Appalachians Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Long time residents of the Hoosier state know this is a favorable track for impactful wintry weather across these parts and this will be no exception.

Moisture will begin to lift northeast during the day Wednesday and reach the I-70 corridor around or just after lunchtime. Across the southern half of Indiana, this moisture should primarily fall in the form of a cold rain (perhaps a bit of sleet initially as the precipitation moves in). However, further north, trouble will ensue. The air won’t only be colder at the surface, but the depth of cold air will be much deeper. This will result in precipitation that should predominantly fall in the form of a sleet-snow “concoction” along and north of the I-70 corridor where we think an axis of 2″ to 4″ of snow/ sleet will accumulate with this storm- including Indianapolis. Further north, less sleet is anticipated and will result in heavier snowfall totals. The northern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points north to include Lafayette, Kokomo, Logansport, Ft. Wayne, and Muncie can expect 4″ to 6″ of snow with this storm system. Most of that will fall Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with additional lighter snowfall accumulation occurring with “wrap around” snow showers and embedded squalls Thursday afternoon into evening. (The Indiana Snowbelt (you know who you are :-)) can expect additional heavier snow accumulation, courtesy of lake effect).

A brief, but potent shot of arctic air will pour into the region Thursday afternoon and set us up for widespread single digits by Friday morning, including the threat of some sub-zero temperatures where the heaviest snowpack is laid down.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Wednesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-time-to-gas-up-the-snow-plows/

Feb 05

Client Brief: Conditions Deteriorate By Late Afternoon…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix of sleet and snow will arrive into central IN between 4p and 5p.

What: Accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: This evening and Thursday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30°

Wind: Northeast 10 to 20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Light to moderate across northern Indiana

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will be required in the “snow zone.”

A surface wave will move from the middle MS River Valley into the TN and lower Ohio Valley region tonight and Thursday morning. Eventually this system will push into the Mid-Atlantic states Friday.

After a mostly dry daytime, precipitation will become more widespread by late afternoon and early evening. More specifically, we anticipate a wintry mix of sleet and snow to move into Indianapolis and a greater chunk of central Indiana between 4p and 5p. Waves of moisture will continue to impact the region into tonight, but as warmer air aloft moves overhead, precipitation is expected to transition to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain during this time frame. Up to 2 tenths of an inch of glaze is possible across the I-70 corridor this evening. We recommend avoiding travel if possible tonight across central Indiana with icy spots expected to develop on area roadways. Across most of central Indiana, snow and sleet accumulation should remain less than 1″. Further north, precipitation will remain predominantly snow with 2″ to 4″ expected.

Colder air aloft will return Thursday allowing precipitation to transition back to light snow across central Indiana. As upper level support swings through the state, snow should become more widespread Thursday night into Friday morning with additional light accumulation possible.

Confidence: High

Next Update: This evening

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-conditions-deteriorate-by-late-afternoon/

Feb 03

Client Brief: Multiple Rounds Of Wintry Precipitation Expected Tuesday Night-Thursday Night…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A wintry mix will begin to impact parts of central IN as early as Tuesday evening.

What: Potential of accumulating snow, sleet, and freezing rain

When: Multiple rounds:

I. Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning

II. Wednesday evening through Thursday evening

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: Northeast 20 to 30 MPH and gusty Tuesday night, shifting to the north, northwest 5 to 15 MPH Wednesday night into Thursday.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting/ plowing also will likely be required in the “snow zone.”

A complex weather pattern will result in a multitude of precipitation types across the state in the Tuesday night through Thursday night time period. Here’s our early thinking where we think the various types of precipitation setup shop:

As we time things out, rain is expected to overspread most of the state Tuesday morning. Heaviest and most concentrated rainfall should occur along and south of the I-70 corridor. A downright balmy start to the day will trend significantly colder (especially around and after lunchtime). As cold air continues to ooze south, renewed precipitation is expected to break out Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, courtesy of a wave moving along the cold front. With colder air in place, this precipitation is expected to primarily fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain through the “heart” of central Indiana with snow across northern parts of the state. With temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday evening, slick spots on area roadways are anticipated to develop- even despite the recent warm weather of the past couple of days.

Most of the daytime should feature a relative “lull” in the precipitation with nearly steady temperatures across central and northern Indiana (around or just below freezing). The briefly quiet times will give way to another round of more widespread and heavier precipitation Wednesday evening, continuing into the day Thursday as a stronger wave of low pressure moves northeast from northern MS, along the Ohio River, and into eastern Ohio. Like what we’ll experience tomorrow evening, the precipitation forms will vary significantly based on your locale. We think another round of sleet (perhaps some freezing rain across south-central Indiana) will dominate across central Indiana, with primarily snow across northern Indiana. Within the highlighted “snow zone,” amounts of 3″ to 6″ certainly seem possible by the time all is said and done Thursday evening.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-multiple-rounds-of-wintry-precipitation-expected-tuesday-night-thursday-night/

Jan 17

Client Brief: Wintry Mix Arrives This Evening; Slick Travel Expected Across A Portion Of The Region…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

A burst of snow will move into central Indiana between 5p and 7p.

What: Coating of snow and light glaze of ice

When: This evening into tonight

Temperatures: Upper 20s to around 30° before rising into the upper 30s after sunrise

Wind: Southeast tonight 20-30 MPH, shifting to the south Saturday morning and gusting to 40 MPH before shifting to the west behind the cold front Saturday evening.

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent

Pavement Impacts: Salting will be required today.

An area of low pressure will track across the central Plains today into the lower Great Lakes and into New England Saturday into Sunday. An associated cold front will sweep through the region Saturday PM resulting in a return of very cold air Saturday night into early next week.

The majority of the day will remain precipitation-free across the state with a lowering and thickening cloud deck by afternoon. As our attention shifts to late afternoon and evening, an initial burst of snow will make it’s way into west-central Indiana (around Terre Haute) before arriving into the city, itself, towards 6p to 7p. For a good chunk of central Indiana, this snow will transition rather quickly to a mix of sleet and freezing rain as evening gives way to nighttime. In and around Indianapolis and northern suburbs, expect a snow/ sleet accumulation of up to 1″ followed by a light glaze of ice. Further north, snow will hang on longer as the predominant precipitation type, resulting in accumulations of 2″ to 4″. If traveling this evening into tonight, icy roads are likely across central Indiana. Temperatures will warm above freezing prior to sunrise Saturday with significant improvement expected on area roadways. This will help precipitation transition to a cold rain Saturday morning before a cold front whips across the state and sends temperatures into a nose dive Saturday evening. Gusty winds will accompany this frontal passage (40 MPH gusts) and any leftover moisture will refreeze Saturday evening resulting in patchy black ice issues on untreated surfaces.

Confidence: High

Next Update: Tonight

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-wintry-mix-arrives-this-evening-slick-travel-expected-across-a-portion-of-the-region/