Category: Client

VIDEO: Relief Is Here; Quiet Pattern Into The Weekend…

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Early August Ideas…

The year continues to fly by! We’re now finalizing our forecast for the last month of meteorological summer and will include a look-ahead to our early fall ideas with the official August Outlook that hits the site later next week. With that said, here are some of our early August ideas:

I. Sea surface temperatures remain well above average through the western Atlantic basin as well as the northeastern Pacific. This should promote warmer than normal conditions, overall, along the coastal areas. Additionally, we’ll need to continue to keep a close eye on the potential of additional “home grown” (Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast US coast) tropical development as we move closer to the peak of the hurricane season.

II. The MJO isn’t nearly as hyper as months past. While we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, we currently don’t anticipate being able to lean on this tool as a good indicator for what may transpire through the month of August (at least early on).

III. We need to keep a very close eye on the EPO over the upcoming week to see if modeling continues to project a significantly negative phase into August. This can “up the ante” for a cooler than normal central US during August if so.

IV. Lack of widespread drought/ dryness. The wet spring and early summer really can help make an impact longer term and that has been seen as early as this week (added humidity with the heat wave), but also helps overall when it comes to late summer and the respect to the staying power, or longevity, of heat waves.

Here’s our early thinking with respect to August temperatures and precipitation. Again, our final, more detailed, outlook will be issued next week!

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VIDEO: Big Changes On Deck; Looking Into August…

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Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook…

Forecast period: 07.21.19 through 07.28.19

7-Day Precipitation: Rainfall is expected to run near average through the period.

7-Day Temperature Outlook: Temperatures are expected to run below average through the forecast period.

Severe Outlook: A strong cold front will slice into the unusually hot and humid air tomorrow afternoon and likely spark an increase in overall thunderstorm coverage. A few storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, after Sunday, severe weather isn’t expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Summary: Hang in there, friends. Today will be the last ridiculously hot and humid day before we start to note relief. Sunday will still be hot and plenty humid, but will be the start of a cooler regime that will take hold in earnest by early parts of the work week. Before that, a cold front will spark scattered to numerous thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening and a few of these could become strong to severe. Linger upper level energy will keep shower chances in our forecast Tuesday with the much cooler temperatures. As we look forward, the next organized chance of rain and thunderstorms will come next weekend as another cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley along with reinforcing pleasantly cool air behind the boundary.

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Dangerously Hot Now, But We’re Talking About An Entirely Different Weather Pattern To Close July And Open August…

Over the weekend we’ll bake in some of the hottest and most humid air we’ve dealt with around these parts since 2012, however big relief is on the horizon.

We’ll get rid of the expansive upper level ridge responsible for the heat this weekend and replace it with a significant trough (at least by late summer standards).

Weekend heat and humidity will be about as bad as it can get around central Indiana. It’ll be important to build in frequent breaks indoors if you have any sort of lengthy outdoor activities planned.
A major pattern flip will result in unseasonably cool and refreshing air next week.

A strong cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms (a few may be strong). It’s this front that will help usher in the refreshing changes for next week. We’ll go from heat indices between 104-108 this weekend to overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s at times next week. Ahhhhhh….

As we look ahead to early August, there’s certain to be additional warm-hot days, however, the mean pattern doesn’t look to promote any sort of sustained significant heat through the early portion of the month. Perhaps the most interesting item showing up on the longer range guidance (EPS and GEFS) is a return of a northwesterly flow aloft and the potential of a wetter regime building in as we traverse the early August period.

Hang in there, the reward on the other side of the weekend will be worth it with cool, Canadian air flowing south.

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