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Category: Christmas/ Thanksgiving
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-week-ahead-outlook-what-awaits-for-mid-month/
Dec 02
More December Rumblings: MJO, PNA, EPO Don’t Favor Sustained Cold (Yet)…
For those that may not have had an opportunity to review our December Outlook over the busy Thanksgiving weekend, you can do so here.
This morning, we wanted to again review our forecast and provide further context behind our overall active, warmer than normal call for the month as a whole.
Before digging in to those additional details, here’s our 2019 December Forecast:
The “baseline” of this slightly-moderately milder than normal December is due to what appears to be the tendency of the MJO to run into the warmer phases (remember, Phases 3-5 this time of year argue for warmer than normal conditions across the East). The most updated MJO forecast continues to stay the course here.
At least through mid-December, the PNA and EPO are also forecast to be in phases that would support warmer than normal conditions across our portion of the country in the overall sense.
This isn’t to say that we won’t have cold and snow to deal with at times this month. We just believe the colder, wintry conditions that may present themselves will be transitional and that warmth will win out at the end of the day.
As we look ahead, there’s reason to believe other factors will come into play that will begin to change the pattern towards one that’s more suited for prolonged cold around, or just before, Christmas. Furthermore, despite the relative warmth forecast for the month of December, we remain firm on the idea of a colder, snowier than normal winter season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-december-rumblings-mjo-pna-epo-dont-favor-sustained-cold-yet/
Nov 30
VIDEO: December Outlook…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-december-outlook/
Dec 25
Looking at the Holiday Week and Ahead to January…
Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.
An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.
Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.
More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.
Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…
This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…
Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-holiday-week-and-ahead-to-january/
Dec 23
Quiet Now; Weak System For Christmas…
Highlights:
- Quiet weather for Christmas travel
- Weak system Christmas Day
- Stronger storm mid week
Chilly, But Rather Quiet…We’ll have some clouds around, but we should stay generally free of precipitation through Christmas Eve. A weak weather system will provide some light snow or a wintry mix Christmas morning before ending as light rain or drizzle. This won’t be a big deal, but will provide a festive time of things as you wake up to see what Santa brought.
A stronger (and warmer) storm will deliver rain Thursday along with gusty southerly winds. Dry and colder weather will return as we get set to close out the week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-now-weak-system-for-christmas/