Category: Blowing/ Drifting

Feb 25

Tuesday Evening Check-Up On Wednesday’s Snow Event…

During a month that’s running 2.5° above normal, many across central Indiana will be sitting at “average” snowfall once to Thursday morning (with the potential of some “bonus” snow for some Friday). Not too shabby, heh?! Let’s dig into some of the latest data. In short, our going forecast remains in good shape and now it’s time to watch the event unfold.

As we type this around 6:30p Tuesday evening, snow is increasing in intensity across northern Indiana and precipitation will continue to become more organized across IL throughout the evening. The bulk of central Indiana is only dealing with drizzle and light rain this evening. It’s a damp, chilly night, but there’s no threat to travel if you’re heading out to dinner or other events with the family.

Colder air will continue to “ooze” into central Indiana throughout the night and as this takes place, a surface wave will develop south of the Ohio River. By 6a, the freezing line is expected to be just south of Indianapolis.

Light to moderate snow is expected to begin overspreading central Indiana in earnest around this time frame (earlier further north).

Snow will increase in overall intensity late morning into the afternoon hours (this is when we anticipate the greatest snowfall rates).

“System” snow will begin to diminish across central Indiana between 5p (west) and 7p (east), but we’ll have to monitor whether or not lake effect snow bands can make it as far south as portions of central Indiana tomorrow night as the wind flow backs around to the northwest and much colder air drives south.

Speaking of wind, we still anticipate northwest winds to increase to 30 MPH+ Wednesday evening across the area. This will lead to considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow night of what should become an increasingly dry/ powdery snow towards the 2nd half of the event.

Things should quieten down through the day Thursday, but cold air (well below normal) will rule into the 1st half of the weekend. We continue to believe the coldest morning of the bunch will come Saturday with widespread middle 10s. Before that, and as mentioned above, we’ll have to monitor some additional snow prospects for some Friday (more on that in the AM :-))!

Until then, enjoy our midweek snow. Our ongoing snowfall forecast first issued last night remains in place.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-check-up-on-wednesdays-snow-event/

Feb 25

VIDEO: Winter Storm Impacts Central Indiana Wednesday Into Thursday Morning…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-winter-storm-impacts-central-indiana-wednesday-into-thursday-morning/

Feb 24

Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow and wind

When: Wednesday into Thursday morning

Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night

Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required

There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.

As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.

One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-threat-of-impactful-wintry-event-increasing-as-southeast-shift-continues/

Mar 05

All-Access Client Brief: Stripe Of Accumulating Snow Streaks Across Central IN…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

What: Accumulating snow

When: Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: E 5-10 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Snow will develop to our northwest tomorrow night into Thursday morning before streaking southeast across central Indiana Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with lighter snow falling Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite what should be moderate intensity at times, the higher March sun angle should help with accumulation on area roadways (still expecting slick and slushy travel at times during periods of heavier intensity) and the idea here is that a general 1″ to 3″ swath of snow falls in a northwest to southeast orientation during the period. Temperatures should remain fairly steady or slowly fall into the upper 20s and winds are expected to be light.

Confidence: Medium-high

Next Update: 7a Wednesday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-stripe-of-accumulating-snow-streaks-across-central-in/

Mar 02

All-Access Client Brief: Morning Thoughts After Looking Over The Latest Data For Sunday…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: 6a to 6p Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: North 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal to moderate

Right off the bat, there’s no need to make any changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast. Snow will arrive into south-central Indiana before sunrise Sunday before expanding northeast through the morning hours, including Indianapolis by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Greatest potential of embedded heavier banding continues to look like it’ll lie across south-central parts of the state (thus the continuation of a 3″ to 5″ swath of snow). North winds will turn gusty Sunday evening and a bit of blowing/ drifting is possible on east-west roadways Sunday night as the late season arctic air arrives in earnest.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-morning-thoughts-after-looking-over-the-latest-data-for-sunday/