Updated 02.11.21 @ 7:55a
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Category: Blowing/ Drifting
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/11/video-long-hours-in-the-forecast-office-ahead/
Feb 09
Client Brief: Another Round Of Accumulating Snow On Deck; Blowing & Drifting Also To Be Dealt With…
Updated 02.09.21 @ 7:15p
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather
What: Accumulating snow
When: Late Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
Temperatures: 18° to 24°
Wind: NE 10 – 20 MPH and gusty
Blowing/ Drifting: Considerable
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required
Summary: Wednesday will dawn with quiet conditions in place but snow will arrive into central Indiana by late morning. Initially, we’re only talking about light snow into the afternoon and evening. Snow will become more widespread and heavier throughout the “heart” of central IN during the overnight hours and Thursday morning before eventually giving way to lighter snow Thursday afternoon, eventually ending from west to east. Downstate, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and brief snow is expected, including icy travel. Once again, this will be an efficient snow producer. Instead of snow ratios of 10:1 we expect closer to 15 to 20:1 ratios (similar to that of what southern parts of the state experienced Monday). The dry, powdery nature of the snow will combine with gusty northeast winds to create blowing and drifting issues by Wednesday evening through Thursday, especially in the open country. Gusty winds will persist Thursday night even as the snow comes to an end, extending the blowing and drifting concerns.
Confidence: High
Next Update: Wednesday morning (video)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/09/client-brief-another-round-of-accumulating-snow-on-deck-blowing-drifting-also-to-be-dealt-with/
Feb 03
VIDEO: A Busy Winter Pattern Settles In…
Updated 02.03.21 @ 7:24p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/03/video-a-busy-winter-pattern-settles-in/
Feb 03
02.03.21 Weather Bulletin: Keeping A Watchful Eye On The Weekend…
Updated 02.03.21 @ 8:19a
Best Day Of The Week…We can’t get too picky this time of year in the weather department. Long time fellow Hoosiers know to never take a day featuring sunshine for granted in early February. Though still chilly, given the pattern ahead, I’d recommend getting outside and enjoying some of those rays today.
A cold front blows into town Thursday and will deliver a chilly rain by the afternoon. As colder air rushes in on the backside of the system, rain will likely mix with and end as a period of snow across the northern half of the state Thursday evening. Though the moisture will be leaving as the cold air is arriving, we may still be able to squeeze out a dusting to 1″ of wet snow for northern areas.
Attention will then shift to an arctic wave that will move into the Ohio Valley this weekend. Snow will become widespread across the central Plains Friday evening into Saturday morning before expanding east into our neck of the woods Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. With cold air in place, this will be a higher ratio snow event than we’ve seen so far this winter (“fluff factor” will be in full effect). Additionally, strong and gusty winds are expected during this time frame leading to blowing and drifting concerns. Stay tuned. We’ll take a stab at early accumulation numbers with this evening’s Client Video update.
Additional upper level energy will scoot through the region into early next week, keeping a supply of snow showers ongoing. While still cold, models have pushed back the truly dangerous cold until late week. Case of delayed, but not denied? Unfortunately think so…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/03/02-03-21-weather-bulletin-keeping-a-watchful-eye-on-the-weekend/
Feb 02
Never Trust An Arctic Wave: Accumulating Snow Prospects Growing This Weekend…
Updated: 02.02.21 @ 6:15p
While we have a few flurries (thanks to a little help from Lake Michigan) flying this evening, the bulk of the upcoming 48 hours will be rather quiet across the region. The next item on the agenda will come in the form of a cold front Thursday afternoon. As of now we anticipate rain (perhaps a brief early mix, but this won’t be a big deal) to arrive into central Indiana between 11a-1p Thursday. Mostly light to, at times, moderate rain will continue into the evening hours before ending as a brief period of wet snow Thursday evening (again, little if any impacts are expected).
Rainfall totals between 0.25″ and 0.50″ can be expected Thursday PM with the passage of the cold front.
The relatively quiet regime should return Friday, but by this time all eyes will be focused on the 1st of (2) arctic frontal systems. The 1st of these arctic fronts will sweep through the state Saturday PM and early Sunday. As this takes place, an arctic wave is expected to form along the leading edge of the true arctic air Saturday evening. This should result in an expanding area of snow that originally develops in the central Plains Friday night/ Saturday morning before pushing east, northeast Saturday into Sunday. With the arctic air pouring into the region, this should be a high ratio type snow and blowing/ drifting issues will likely be more of a problem than with the majority of systems so far this season.
While this is all taking place, a secondary low pressure system should develop along the Carolina coast early Sunday morning and it’s this system that will likely become the primary “player on the field” late in the weekend or early next week. Before that though, the arctic wave will likely result in a stripe of accumulating snow from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana (too early for specific amounts). This will lay the groundwork for the coldest air of the season early next week…
Snow removal clients, as well as those in the ag. industry should keep close tabs on the weekend forecast. While we’re not expecting a widespread heavy snow event, the combination of snow, wind, and eventual bitterly cold air will lead to significant impacts as we move forward.
I would plan on temperatures falling into the single digits below zero, along with wind chill values potentially approaching 20° below zero by early next week.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/02/never-trust-an-arctic-wave-accumulating-snow-prospects-growing-this-weekend/
Feb 25
Tuesday Evening Check-Up On Wednesday’s Snow Event…
During a month that’s running 2.5° above normal, many across central Indiana will be sitting at “average” snowfall once to Thursday morning (with the potential of some “bonus” snow for some Friday). Not too shabby, heh?! Let’s dig into some of the latest data. In short, our going forecast remains in good shape and now it’s time to watch the event unfold.
As we type this around 6:30p Tuesday evening, snow is increasing in intensity across northern Indiana and precipitation will continue to become more organized across IL throughout the evening. The bulk of central Indiana is only dealing with drizzle and light rain this evening. It’s a damp, chilly night, but there’s no threat to travel if you’re heading out to dinner or other events with the family.
Colder air will continue to “ooze” into central Indiana throughout the night and as this takes place, a surface wave will develop south of the Ohio River. By 6a, the freezing line is expected to be just south of Indianapolis.
Light to moderate snow is expected to begin overspreading central Indiana in earnest around this time frame (earlier further north).
Snow will increase in overall intensity late morning into the afternoon hours (this is when we anticipate the greatest snowfall rates).
“System” snow will begin to diminish across central Indiana between 5p (west) and 7p (east), but we’ll have to monitor whether or not lake effect snow bands can make it as far south as portions of central Indiana tomorrow night as the wind flow backs around to the northwest and much colder air drives south.
Speaking of wind, we still anticipate northwest winds to increase to 30 MPH+ Wednesday evening across the area. This will lead to considerable blowing and drifting tomorrow night of what should become an increasingly dry/ powdery snow towards the 2nd half of the event.
Things should quieten down through the day Thursday, but cold air (well below normal) will rule into the 1st half of the weekend. We continue to believe the coldest morning of the bunch will come Saturday with widespread middle 10s. Before that, and as mentioned above, we’ll have to monitor some additional snow prospects for some Friday (more on that in the AM :-))!
Until then, enjoy our midweek snow. Our ongoing snowfall forecast first issued last night remains in place.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/25/tuesday-evening-check-up-on-wednesdays-snow-event/
Feb 25
VIDEO: Winter Storm Impacts Central Indiana Wednesday Into Thursday Morning…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/25/video-winter-storm-impacts-central-indiana-wednesday-into-thursday-morning/
Feb 24
Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…
Type: Impactful Wintry Weather
What: Accumulating snow and wind
When: Wednesday into Thursday morning
Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night
Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty
Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning
Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required
There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.
As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.
One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.
Confidence: Medium
Next Update: Tuesday morning
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/02/24/client-brief-threat-of-impactful-wintry-event-increasing-as-southeast-shift-continues/
Mar 05
All-Access Client Brief: Stripe Of Accumulating Snow Streaks Across Central IN…
Brief: Accumulating Snow
What: Accumulating snow
When: Thursday afternoon into Friday morning
Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30
Wind: E 5-10 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal
Snow will develop to our northwest tomorrow night into Thursday morning before streaking southeast across central Indiana Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with lighter snow falling Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite what should be moderate intensity at times, the higher March sun angle should help with accumulation on area roadways (still expecting slick and slushy travel at times during periods of heavier intensity) and the idea here is that a general 1″ to 3″ swath of snow falls in a northwest to southeast orientation during the period. Temperatures should remain fairly steady or slowly fall into the upper 20s and winds are expected to be light.
Confidence: Medium-high
Next Update: 7a Wednesday
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/05/all-access-client-brief-stripe-of-accumulating-snow-streaks-across-central-in/
Mar 02
All-Access Client Brief: Morning Thoughts After Looking Over The Latest Data For Sunday…
Brief: Accumulating snow
Forecaster: McMillan
What: Accumulating snow
When: 6a to 6p Sunday
Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30
Wind: North 10-20 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal to moderate
Right off the bat, there’s no need to make any changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast. Snow will arrive into south-central Indiana before sunrise Sunday before expanding northeast through the morning hours, including Indianapolis by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Greatest potential of embedded heavier banding continues to look like it’ll lie across south-central parts of the state (thus the continuation of a 3″ to 5″ swath of snow). North winds will turn gusty Sunday evening and a bit of blowing/ drifting is possible on east-west roadways Sunday night as the late season arctic air arrives in earnest.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/02/all-access-client-brief-morning-thoughts-after-looking-over-the-latest-data-for-sunday/