Category: Autumn

VIDEO: Wet, Windy Saturday; Looking Ahead To Halloween And The Colder Pattern That Awaits…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/26/video-wet-windy-saturday-looking-ahead-to-halloween-and-the-colder-pattern-that-awaits/

VIDEO: Busy Time Of Things In The Good Ole Forecast Office…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/25/video-busy-time-of-things-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/

VIDEO: Significant Fall Storm Brewing…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/24/video-significant-fall-storm-brewing/

VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/

Rain Chances Going Up This Weekend; Taste Of Winter Blows Into Town Before Halloween…

Dry weather will prevail today and the majority of Thursday across central Indiana (a light passing shower is possible across northern Indiana, but this won’t be a big deal).

Scattered light showers are possible Thursday night into the day Friday, along with an increase in cloud cover, but again, significantly more dry time is anticipated than wet. Some won’t see a drop of rain Friday.

A scattered light shower is possible Thursday night-Friday across central IN.

As we rumble into the weekend, a vigorous upper level low in Oklahoma will “bowl” east across Arkansas and then shoot northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. (Hint, you may want to get used to this kind of storm track over the upcoming winter). This will result in increasing aerial coverage of rain Saturday.

Rain will exit off to the northeast Saturday night and a drier second half of the weekend is expected. By the time all is said and done, a solid 0.50″ to 1″ of rain is expected (we’re currently siding with a blend of the aggressive European and lighter GFS).

After a wet 1st half of the weekend, all eyes will be set on a taste of winter that’s dialed up just before Halloween. A cold front will blow through the Ohio Valley early next week with the threat of rain followed by sharply colder air. As upper level energy rounds the base of the digging significant trough, the first flakes of the season can be expected across the region before Halloween (still will have to fine tune timing). This pattern will also serve up the first accumulating lake effect snow event of the season, including the Snow Belt regions of IN, MI, and OH.

A winter-like feel can be expected as we close October and open November.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/rain-chances-going-up-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-blows-into-town-before-halloween/

VIDEO: Sifting Through The Noise As We Close October And Open November…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/video-sifting-through-the-noise-as-we-close-october-and-open-november/

VIDEO: Potential Shower This Evening? Looking Ahead To A Busy Week Of Weather…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/19/video-potential-shower-this-evening-looking-ahead-to-a-busy-week-of-weather/

Friday Morning Rambles…

I. A mostly dry, but breezy weekend is dialed up! A couple light showers may scoot across western portions of the state Saturday, but “light” is the key word.

South winds are expected to gust between 20-25 MPH at times over the weekend. This will deliver milder air with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to around 70° Saturday and Sunday.

II. An active week is on tap next week with (2) strong cold fronts slated to move through the region.

The first boundary will result in widespread showers and embedded thunder Monday. Most can expect around half an inch of rain with this system to open the work week. Cooler and blustery conditions will return into midweek.

The second cold front will move though late Thursday into Friday and feature another quick pop of rain (relatively light amounts expected at this time) followed by the coldest air mass so far this autumn heading into next weekend.

The air mass will be cold enough to ignite for the first lake effect snow outbreak of the season next weekend.

Finally, we still need to monitor the prospects of additional upper level energy that may try and result in a cold rain or wintry mix just before Halloween. Regardless, Halloween is looking quite chilly this year…

III. Our official annual winter outlook will be released later this month. The latest sea surface temperature anomalies have to make central and eastern winter weather lovers drool. The persistent warmth in the NE PAC should promote a more sustained western ridge/ central and eastern trough this winter when compared to the past couple. More on this and many other factors (including the Modoki Nino event) in the near future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/18/friday-morning-rambles-5/

VIDEO: Fun And Interesting Times Ahead- ‘Tis The Season, I Suppose?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/17/video-fun-and-interesting-times-ahead-tis-the-season-i-suppose/

Pattern Evolution Through Late October…

The teleconnections are aligning in a manner that favors a colder than average period of weather by late-October standards. Note the PNA trend positive while the EPO heads negative. The AO and NAO also follow suit.

The sum of all of the above should feature a predominant western ridge for late month with a persistent eastern trough- at times deeper than others.

Add in the fact that the MJO is anticipated to swing into Phase 2 and this further serves to increase confidence in the colder shift.

The models are focusing in on the colder close to the month and though specifics will continue to vary from run-to-run, the primary message that we want to convey is to expect a colder than average 2nd half of the month with an active storm track. As pops of more “winter-like” air get involved behind one or two of the late month storms, pre-Halloween flakes may fly across a portion of the Ohio Valley.

Days 3-8
Days 8-13
Days 10-15

Given the pattern progression and anticipated teleconnection states, we think it’s wise to ensure the kiddos have a warm Halloween costume this year!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/17/pattern-evolution-through-late-october/

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