You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update-4/
Nov 17
Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…
Highlights:
- Periods of rain
- Turning cooler
- Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
- Early arctic blast
Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through. We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
This is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains. This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.
A third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight). This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.
When all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall. While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.
All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend. There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN. As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/
Nov 15
Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…
Highlights:
- Beautiful Sunday
- Clouds and rain return
- Colder late week
- Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November
Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning. That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions. Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s. With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.
Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening. A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain. It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not. A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night. When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains. We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.
Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week. Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving. With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…
The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/
Nov 13
Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…
Highlights:
- Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
- Next big storm arrives early next week
- Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving
Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping! Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.
Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN. The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.
Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week. Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west. We’ll continue to monitor. Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.
The differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.
We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound. Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.
Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November. Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/
Nov 12
Looking Ahead Towards Our Next Storm…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/