Category Archives: Autumn

Ready For Fall, Y’all?

Meteorological fall (began September 1st) is running warmer than average across the eastern half of the country.  More specifically, Indianapolis is running 4.8° above average through the period.

The culprit?  A persistent strong eastern ridge (the same ridge that trapped Florence across the Carolinas after she made landfall).

That said, things are changing in significant fashion and these changes will result in much colder conditions as we wrap up the month and open October.

We note the PNA (Pacific North America pattern) trending strongly positive during the period.

A positive PNA typically leads to an eastern trough- especially during the fall months into the spring.  Something like this kind of upper level pattern usually results.

Sure enough, the models are going to this look.

At the surface, the eastern warmth is reversed in a significant fashion with well below average temperatures.  In fact, temperatures will grow cold enough to support high ground snow in the Rockies and northern Great Lakes and the threat of an early frost into the upper Mid West and perhaps portions of the Ohio Valley during the period.

Ah, true pumpkin spice season is right around the corner. 😉

AG Report, Autumn, First frost, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'18, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Florence Brings Devastating Flooding To The Carolinas; Extended Dry & Warm Stretch Here…

Florence made landfall around 7:15 this morning near Wrightsville Beach, NC.  Within the past 30 minutes, a wind gust was reported to 105 MPH in Wilmington, NC.

Florence will crawl through the Carolinas this weekend and spread devastating flooding well inland- 20″ to 30″. Even the high ground of the North Carolina Blue Ridge will experience severe flooding Sunday into Monday- 6″ to 12″.  These are forecast radar totals shown now through 2p Sunday.  The Blue Ridge will see heavy rain continue into Monday evening.

Back here on the home front, expect an extended stretch of dry and warm weather.  Plentiful sunshine can be expected as we head into the weekend along with a warming trend- mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.  High pressure will remain in firm control.

The next item of excitement for our region will be from a cold front late next week.  This will help increase shower and thunderstorm chances along with delivering cooler air next weekend.

Autumn, Flooding, Florence, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Looking At The Week Ahead…

Rainfall of significance is over, and thankfully so.  Many area rainfall totals checked in between 4″ and 7″ and while significant, the overall forward motion of Gordon’s remnants moved much quicker than forecast guidance suggested, ultimately limiting flooding issues from being even worse.

Today we’re left will overcast skies, patchy drizzle at times, gusty winds, and MUCH cooler air.  In fact, the majority of our Sunday will be spent in the 50s.  In case you’re wondering, November 1st is the “average” first day with a high in the 50s- 59° to be exact.

Patchy drizzle is possible through the day, but significant rainfall is over.
Temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s for the majority of the day.

High pressure will return to open the work week.  We’ll still likely deal with more clouds than sun on Monday, but as high pressure builds directly overhead Tuesday, more in the way of sunshine will return.  Temperatures will be very pleasant through the first half of the work week- lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.

All eyes will shift to Florence by midweek.  She’ll likely go through a period of significant strengthening on her journey closer to the southeast US coast with a potential landfall along the Carolina coastline Thursday.  There’s still time to watch things unfold, but confidence is increasing on a potential major hurricane making landfall later this week.

Unfortunately, the upper air pattern and lack of a steering current would lead to Florence either stalling out or “meandering” around the mid-Atlantic region for potentially several days…

Meanwhile, back here on the home front, our fall-like early week feel will transition to warmer times as we move into late week and next weekend.  Highs in the mid 80s will return with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Autumn, Flooding, Florence, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'18, Heavy Rain, Rain, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weekly Outlook