Category: Arctic Cold

Monday Evening Video Update…

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Saturday Weather Chit-Chat…

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Morning Ensemble Disco.

*Part of what we send our clients is a daily (two times/ day during active periods) ensemble discussion.  Here’s an excerpt of this morning’s discussion that went out earlier.  By the way, if you’re interested in joining our weather consulting services, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for more details.

…We note some significant differences in our morning ensemble data that’s creating some doubt in terms of the longevity of the coming cold.  We still feel the heart of the cold is in the Mid West and Ohio Valley with this early February surge.  The EC is likely a battle zone, at least initially.

EuroFeb5th

GEFSFeb5thThe European is much more progressive in breaking down the cold across the central and east, while the GFS ensembles look much more realistic to us.  Why?  The GoA trough placement.  The EPS is likely “dragging its heels” across the southwest with the southern energy and in return deepens the trough too much across the four corners region.

We see the GEFS going to a significant cold period in the 10-14 day period, centered over the mid section into the Ohio Valley.  This is also during the time frame we think the first of two winter events impacts the Ohio Valley.

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_10We’ll issue an afternoon ensemble discussion after having an opportunity to digest 12z data.  Look for it in your inbox by 6p.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/morning-ensemble-disco/

Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/

Wednesday Morning Rambles…

January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal.       After several relatively “boring” days, much more…

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