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Category: Arctic Cold
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-cold-pattern-turns-more-active-next-week/
Dec 25
Flooding Concerns…
Highlights:
- Periods of heavy rain
- Tight temperature gradient
- Much colder to open 2016
Very Wet Period Before We Turn Colder…We hope you had a blessed Christmas full of joy, peace, and laughter!
It was a beautiful Christmas across the region, complete with temperatures reaching the 50 degree mark for the first time since 1987! Many would prefer cold and snow (yours truly included), but we couldn’t ask for better weather to get out and enjoy those new gifts from Santa! The countdown to Christmas 2016 begins now. 🙂
The weather will once again turn quite active around these parts as we head into the extended Christmas weekend. Waves of heavy rain will push north Saturday and grow heavy Saturday evening. Periodically heavy rain will continue Sunday. Flooding concerns are present as event rain totals of 3″-5″ should be widespread, with locally heavier amounts.
The other big weather item to note will be the tight temperature gradient from north to south Saturday evening. Note the modeled temperature forecast Saturday night, including temperatures ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 60s south. Heads up for central IN communities, the cold air will win out Sunday as temperatures fall through the day after an early morning high.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Another push of heavy rain will surge into IN Monday as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of low pressure will form along the Mid Atlantic coast Monday and provide interior portions of the NE an icy/ snowy combo to open the new work week.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Things will (FINALLY) begin to dry out and chill down as we rumble closer to closing 2015 and welcoming 2016. Though forecast models aren’t seeing much in the way of precipitation with the surge of cold air, don’t be surprised if we deal with scattered snow showers during the Thursday-Friday period as upper energy teams up with the arctic surge.
All-in-all, it’s a step in the right direction for establishing the winter pattern that we think lies ahead, but we caution with a positive AO, things are likely to still be transient over the first 7-10 days of January. Once to mid month, we still believe a sustained shift to colder, more wintry times loom.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/flooding-concerns/
Nov 22
Frigid Start; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…
Highlights:
- Arctic air begins to moderate
- Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
- Another punch of cold air next weekend
Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many. Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell. Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work). This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.
The visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.
The next few days will feature dry and cold conditions. While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.
We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday. Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period. Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.
Much colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December. Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/
Nov 21
Rain Changes To Snow Today; Busy Pattern Into Early December…
Highlights:
- Rain changes to snow
- Early season arctic air settles in
- Next storm arrives for Thanksgiving
- Eyeing a cold open to December
Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN. Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County). Further north it’s mainly a snow event. Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.
Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon
Forecast radar 8a, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
10a forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar at 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives. While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise. Here’s our updated snowfall map.
The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight. Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.
Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day. Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period. This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-changes-to-snow-today-busy-pattern-into-early-december/
Nov 20
Potent System; Friday Evening Thinking…
This evening’s radar shows our potent weather maker providing a plethora of weather elements to our west. Anything from heavy snow (numerous 12″ + reports coming in across IA) to thunderstorms across MO have made for an active Friday evening.
Thinking hasn’t changed much from the get go with this storm system, but we wanted to “freshen” things up a bit before bed.
Rain will overspread central IN through the morning hours before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon. This transition will occur in a northwest to southeast fashion as colder air wraps into the region.
Here’s a timeline (thanks to Weatherbell.com) of what the radar may look like as Saturday morning progresses into Saturday afternoon.
As rain transitions to snow, it’ll likely come down rather “fast and furious” for a time before ending. Despite what may be moderate to heavy snow for a time (especially along and north of the I-70 corridor- there’s the “magic” dividing line again :-)), warm surface temperatures will really limit what snow will actually accumulate. As things stand now, we still forecast a widespread 2″-4″ snowfall across the northern portions of the state, with 4″-6″ amounts in favored lake effect areas. Farther south to include central IN, a dusting to less than 1″ is a good bet before precipitation ends.
The growing concern Saturday night will be a stiff northwest wind driving MUCH colder air into the region. This will help power a brief lake effect event across NE areas of the state before shutting down quickly by the wee morning hours Sunday.
Any lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze up quickly tomorrow night. With a deep snowpack just to our north, the NW flow will keep things very cold around these parts into early next week. Note widespread teens Sunday morning across north-central IN and even this might not be cold enough. If we lay the expected snowfall down, don’t be surprised by some single digit temperatures (not counting wind chill values) across north-central IN Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will remain below freezing for most.
‘Tis the season! More in the AM, and happy snow dreams to all!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/potent-system-friday-evening-thinking/