Tuesday Evening Rambles: Wintry Weather And More Christmas Week Chatter…

I.) The pattern we’re currently dealing with is one that presents multiple challenges in the near term. East-central and northeastern portions of the state have gotten in on the snow act today, but, so far, most of central Indiana has missed out on the snowy goods. With such a fast-paced northwest flow, we have to remain on guard for potential “surprises” in this pattern. Perhaps the HRRR is beginning to pick up on this. Latest runs want to deliver a “pop” of snow Wednesday morning, associated with “warm” air advection (WAA). We’ll monitor tonight.

II. The northwest flow will continue to provide disturbances plenty capable of producing periods of snow again Wednesday evening through the end of the week. Are these monster storms? Hardly, but they can “suddenly” become sufficient enough to create travel problems given the pattern. For those who live across the northern half of the state, plan to keep close tabs to local forecasts if you have travel plans through the end of the week.

III. A period of brief moderation will come in this pattern early Christmas week, but all eyes continue to focus on the period between December 22nd through December 26th for the potential of impactful weather across our region. For model “worshipers” out there, we suggest paying more attention to overall trends, and a blend of ensemble data, as opposed to specifics associated with operational runs. It’s a “jailbreak” pattern of sorts as true arctic air will be pouring down the Plains while the southeastern ridge tries to fight for a time. The resistance from the southeastern ridge and associated tight thermal gradient should promote a very stormy regime for the interior (Ohio Valley into the interior northeast) as we head into the true holiday/ Christmas stretch. As of now, we favor the idea of multiple waves along the pressing arctic boundary, as opposed to one big storm. Looking back through the records shows some of the heaviest snows at IND have come from similar set-ups. Understanding each set-up is unique, the overall pattern does have to raise an eye brow for potential of wintry weather in, or around, our region as Christmas approaches…

Bill McMillan December 12, 2017 No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Ensemble Discussion, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles, Winter thoughts...

VIDEO: Attention Required Tonight; Additional Upper Energy Poses A Challenge This Week…

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Bill McMillan December 11, 2017 No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, HRRR, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos, Windy

Intriguing Look As We Move Closer To Christmas…

Temperatures will attempt to approach seasonal norms Monday (average high this time of year is 40°) before arctic reinforcements blow into town Monday night and Tuesday.

This will keep highs in the middle 20s Tuesday with wind chill values in the single digits and teens most of the day.

Scattered snow showers and embedded lake-generated squalls will accompany this arctic surge Tuesday. As the wind trajectory sets up shop Tuesday afternoon, lake effect snow bands will impact portions of northeast and east-central Indiana.

Cold weather will continue to dominate through the work week and an additional upper level disturbance may try to ignite snow showers Thursday.

As we push into the 8-10 day time frame, a “relaxation” of the cold is anticipated, but, as we’ve been discussing, any sort of moderation will be brief in this weather pattern. Cold looks to continue to dominate, overall. With that said, there will be a window of opportunity early next week where temperatures will go above normal for a change and the European ensemble shows this brief moderation nicely.

This doesn’t last long as the pattern begins to reload as Christmas week approaches. As the evolution to a fresh cold pattern takes place, there’s a window of opportunity present for a more significant wintry system to potentially impact the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. Notice the relatively “flat” ridge across the southern tier and associated tight thermal gradient. This look suggests we need to be on guard for the chance of a storm system to ride the thermal gradient in a west-to-east fashion, and has wintry implications for our region. Far too early for specifics; just know the possibility looms of a wintry event, locally, as Christmas week nears.

Speaking of Christmas, it sure appears as if cold will overwhelm the pattern for Christmas, itself, and the overall cold regime doesn’t show signs of letting up (with the exception of potentially a day or two) into the new year.

Bill McMillan December 10, 2017 No Comments Arctic Cold, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Cold Week Ahead; Light Snow Chances…

Highlights:

Lake effect squalls this afternoon
Another arctic shot early next week
Light snow chances

Hope You Like It Cold…Upper level energy is moving through the region this morning and is responsible for the scattered snow showers. Dry air “ate away” at the initial moisture and as a result we’re generally only looking at a dusting for most of central Indiana. The exception to that will be a narrow, but potentially intense lake effect snow band and embedded squalls that set up shop this afternoon. Under this band, an inch or two of snow will quickly accumulate.

Reinforcing cold, arctic air will pour into the state Monday night and Tuesday and will be accompanied by scattered snow showers. Another fast-moving disturbance will provide a shot of snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday.

All-in-all, no significant snow is on the horizon, but that may begin to change as Christmas nears. After brief moderation in the pattern next weekend, we’ll reload the cold pattern and likely see a stormy regime unfold, as well. Modeling suggests the southern stream will become more active in the weeks ahead…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Snowfall: 1″
Rainfall: 0.00″

Bill McMillan December 9, 2017 No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Arctic Cold, Forecast, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather

Fast Moving Northwest Flow…

Highlights:

Cold times
First accumulating snow of the season
Additional disturbances to monitor next week

Snow Arrives Late Friday Night And Early Saturday…75% of our Thursday featured overcast skies and periodic flurries and light snow. Thankfully, a bit of drier air is working in to provide a brighter close to the day. A cold night is on deck as many fall into the teens.

A fast moving upper air disturbance will drop southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday. This will help spread a swath of snow across central Indiana overnight Friday into the wee morning hours Saturday. Additionally, we’ll have to monitor the potential of enhanced lake effect bands across central and east-central portions of the state Saturday morning into the early afternoon. In general, we expect 1″ to 2″ of snow to accumulate across central Indiana, but note there may be a couple of heavier totals where lake effect bands set up.

Another fast-paced disturbance will blow into town Monday night into Tuesday, followed by another Wednesday night into Thursday. Cold weather will dominate through the period.