Category: Arctic Cold

Jan 20

Snowy Morning…

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 7.43.03 AMHighlights:

  • Snowy morning
  • Major winter storm impacts the southern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic
  • Dry, cold weekend in store

Snowy Morning; Next Winter Storm Shifts South…This morning’s snow “behaved” as planned with a quick thumping across a large portion of central IN.  A quick scan of accumulation reports into the office this morning indicate amounts, on average, right around 2″ (some a bit more, some a little less).  We’ll recap later this evening, with an overlay of our snowfall forecast map.  Due to the timing of this event, this morning’s commute is a nightmare, as expected.

As we look ahead, the major winter storm (crippling for some) late week is trending further and further south.  Now, instead of the initial low tracking through the TN Valley (which would’ve argued for a reflection of the low up west of the mountains), it appears to stay so far south that it tracks along the northern Gulf states before the primary low takes over and delivers the “snowy goods” to our friends from the east TN mountains north and east.  By the way, this will be a monster event for the southern Appalachians (yard stick will be needed to measure the final product).  Back here on the home front, we’ll forecast a dry, cold stretch with a blustery Friday (east winds gusting 20-30 MPH).

Our next weather maker of note will come early next week.  More on that as we draw closer.

Safe travels and happy snow to all! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-morning/

Jan 19

Lots To Look At…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lots-to-look-at/

Jan 19

Busy, Busy (And Snowy)…

Screen Shot 2016-01-19 at 7.38.59 AMHighlights:

  • Another frigid start
  • Snow develops tonight
  • Watching late week winter storm potential

Snowy Commute Ahead Wednesday Morning…Back-to-back wintry events will impact at least portions of the region in the coming days.  Before we talk snow, we’ll enjoy sunshine this morning before clouds begin to increase, thicken, and lower later today.  Those clouds spell snow during the overnight and we still think snow will come down at a good clip for an hour, or two just before the morning rush (horrible timing, I know).  A couple inches still looks like a good bet in, and around, Indy, with heavier totals off to the south.

We’ll go through a break in the action Wednesday afternoon, but all eyes at that point will already be focused to our SW.  A developing winter storm will take shape in Texas Thursday and track northeast into the TN Valley Friday.  Eventually the energy will transfer to a new area of low pressure east of the Appalachians that will create blizzard conditions across the mountains, Mid Atlantic, and portions of the Northeast late week.  That said, enough of a reflection of the initial low should track up west of the mountains and help spread moisture far enough north to impact southern and southeastern parts of our region Thursday night into Friday.  (A slight continued NW jog is still possible).  It’s far too early to discuss amounts, but know that this could be an impactful event for some, particularly across southern and southeastern IN.

Dry and cold conditions will return for the weekend before we eye the potential of additional wintry “mischief” next week…

11912016SnowEvent2nd

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-busy-and-snowy/

Jan 18

Suppression Depression? Not So Fast, My Friend…

There’s been a tremendous amount of buzz concerning the late week winter storm, and for good reason.  This will be a doozie for some (perhaps many) folks.  While most data keeps this storm too far south and east for a big snow for Hoosiers, it’s wise not to write this storm off at this juncture.

A latest scan of the GFS ensembles show 9 of 21 members suggest snow impacts central IN Thursday night.

Source: Weatherbell.com

Source: Weatherbell.com

While we can’t show them here (due to licensing issues), we note 19 of 51 European ensemble members also agree on snow prospects for southern/ central IN.

Experience here (and during my time in the mountains of east TN) suggest time and time again that when surface lows track through the TN Valley, you’ll see a reflection of that low track west of the spine of the Appalachians before the new primary low forms east of the mountains.  This takes place due to the natural impact of downsloping off the Appalachians.  (We’ll bore you with the fascinating impacts of upsloping and downsloping at another time).  🙂  Is that far enough west to provide the “snowy goods” to central IN?  Sometimes yes, and sometimes no.  We’ll continue to keep a very close eye on things as we rumble closer towards late week and we suggest you do as well.

In the near term, challenges also abound.  We still favor a swath of 2-3″ snows through the I-70 corridor tomorrow night-Wednesday morning.  Upper level energy and the higher ratio snow should fluff those amounts up, despite current data tracking amounts south.  We’ll keep a close eye on 00z data.

Much more later!  Have a great evening!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/suppression-depression-not-so-fast-my-friend/

Jan 18

Frigid Day; Watching Accumulating Snow Threat Tomorrow Night…

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 8.05.46 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid day
  • Accumulating snow Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Late week winter storm threat south
  • Active pattern continues next weekend

Bitterly Cold With Developing Snow Tuesday Night…It’s a bright, but frigid start to the day with mostly sunny skies in place.  Temperatures are below zero for many this morning and ‘chills have dipped to as low as 20 below.  If you have to be out today, layer up and limit time outdoors.

Clouds will quickly be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and snow will develop Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday morning.  Model data suggests snow may come down at a good clip at times early Wednesday morning. The initial snowfall map (below) places our best idea on accumulation for now.  As we always say, this should be used as guidance at this distance and we’ll have to fine tune as we move forward.

The consensus of nearly all model data shifts our late week winter storm further south overnight.  It’s too early to write this storm off, but we’ll trend our forecast drier in the Thursday-Friday time frame for now (that blocking high to our north can, at times, be a blessing and a curse ;-)).  Another chance of snow rumbles in late in the weekend.

InitialCall11912016event

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-day-watching-accumulating-snow-threat-tomorrow-night/