Category: AG Report

Jul 14

Hot, Drier Pattern Awaits…

We’ve been relatively spoiled so far this summer- both in regards to temperature and precipitation.  That said, as we approach the second half of July, things appear to be changing for the hotter and drier side of things.

July, so far, has been very pleasant, locally.  BTW- another push of drier air is inbound that should lead to a nice weekend, including low humidity values.

1Ensemble data continues to suggest that the mean ridge position (hot dome) develops over the eastern portion of the country early next week before slowly retrograding northwest with time.

2By the middle and latter portions of next week, the hot dome is set up in a position that will yield an extended stretch of hot temperatures across the state, including multiple mid-90 degree highs across central IN.

3

4Given the current look of the ridge position, this would also be a rather dry pattern, as well, as the storm and rain track would shift north across the Canadian border into the northern Great Lakes states.  (Follow that 588 line above for a good indicator of the storm track).

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8One always has to be careful in trying to predict the timing of the ridge breaking down/ overall placement this time of year (models can struggle), but for now it appears as if we really heat things up and dry things out as we move through next week- especially the middle and latter portions of the week.

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May 23

Protected: June Outlook…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/june-outlook/

Feb 07

10-Day AG-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 02.07.16

Forecast period: 02.07.16 – 02.17.16

Focal Items:

  • Busy winter pattern from the Plains east
  • Dry and warm across the West
  • Potential widespread winter storm threat days 7-10 from the Plains into the East

Summary: Changes are underway at the beginning of the period with a positive PNA pattern in place.  This will support a drier and warmer than normal time of things across the west with a shift towards much colder than normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country.  Early in the period, we’re tracking a coastal storm that will deliver blizzard conditions to the Cape Monday and a big upper low over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  This will provide a prolonged snow shower event across the areas mentioned above.  Toward the end of the period, we’ll have to remain focused over the southern/ central Plains for the potential of a developing winter storm that would then advance into the Ohio Valley and eventually Mid Atlantic.

Sensible Impacts: Strong ridging across the West will keep things drier and warmer than normal, with the action across the eastern half of the nation.

In addition to snow, wind, and near blizzard conditions that will impact the Cape to open the work week, blizzard conditions will also impact the northern Plains as an upper trough drops south.  The same trough and associated upper level energy will deliver snow showers and embedded blinding snow squalls south into the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians through mid week, as well.

A very active northwest flow will send light to moderate snow makers southeast out of the N. Plains into the Ohio Valley through the upcoming work week.  Overall, most snowfall accumulations will remain light, with the exception of Snow Belt areas.

A significant winter storm appears to be brewing next weekend and could impact a large portion of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic towards the end of the period.

Temperature Anomalies: A very cold time of things is ahead for the forecast region through the period.  In some cases, temperatures will fall to levels some 15-20 degrees below normal.

Tuesday

Temperature anomalies Tuesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies Wednesday. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature anomalies next weekend. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Precipitation: Snowfall will generally be light through the forecast region this week. Despite the light snowfall, very strong winds will likely lead to blizzard conditions in the open country, particularly across IA and MN early in the period. Heavier snow will be possible as the potential winter storm develops next weekend across the central Plains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/10-day-ag-weather-outlook-2/

Jan 31

10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…

10 Day AG-Weather Outlook

Issued: 01.31.16

Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16

Focal Items:

  • Plains blizzard Days 1-3
  • Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
  • Impactful winter event developing late in the period

Summary:  The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.

Sensible Impacts:  A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday.  The surface low  will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night.  To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI.  South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night.  All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period).  There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.

Temperature Anomalies:  The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 5.25.30 PM

Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall

Precipitation:  A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm.  .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train).  Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.

For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/

Jan 28

Morning Ensemble Disco.

*Part of what we send our clients is a daily (two times/ day during active periods) ensemble discussion.  Here’s an excerpt of this morning’s discussion that went out earlier.  By the way, if you’re interested in joining our weather consulting services, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for more details.

…We note some significant differences in our morning ensemble data that’s creating some doubt in terms of the longevity of the coming cold.  We still feel the heart of the cold is in the Mid West and Ohio Valley with this early February surge.  The EC is likely a battle zone, at least initially.

EuroFeb5th

GEFSFeb5thThe European is much more progressive in breaking down the cold across the central and east, while the GFS ensembles look much more realistic to us.  Why?  The GoA trough placement.  The EPS is likely “dragging its heels” across the southwest with the southern energy and in return deepens the trough too much across the four corners region.

We see the GEFS going to a significant cold period in the 10-14 day period, centered over the mid section into the Ohio Valley.  This is also during the time frame we think the first of two winter events impacts the Ohio Valley.

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_10We’ll issue an afternoon ensemble discussion after having an opportunity to digest 12z data.  Look for it in your inbox by 6p.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/morning-ensemble-disco/