Category: AG Report

Feb 25

Weekly #AGwx And #Severe Weather Outlook…

Updated 02.25.24 @ 7:55a

Though a bit earlier than usual this year, it’s time to “dust off” our dedicated weekly post aimed solely at looking at the potential of severe weather in the week ahead. You can expect this to be posted each Sunday morning moving forward through the spring and summer before sunsetting for another year come late September.

An anomalous pattern will dominate the period as we close February and open March. The eastern ridge will become stronger in response to a digging trough across the Western CONUS.
Well above average temperatures can be expected for the Plains and Eastern CONUS through the upcoming week. Cooling behind our midweek frontal passage will be brief before another significant warm-up late week.
The upcoming 2-week period should yield above average precipitation to the majority of the forecast area (to well above average across the Southeast).

Forecast period: 02.25.24 through 03.03.24

The “headliner” system in the forecast period is an area of low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday (02.27 and 02.28). This will drag a trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning into the afternoon (west to east).

The Storm Prediction Center includes most of the region in some sort of risk of severe weather Tuesday. The greatest risk of severe appears to include an area north and west of a rough line from Evansville northeast to Bloomington and Toledo, OH. While all modes of severe weather are in play, we remain most concerned for the threat of damaging straight line winds Tuesday PM.

Ingredients aren’t off the charts (rarely are this time of year), but parameters are sufficient enough to warrant the chance of strong to severe storms Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning before the cold front moves through the region and results in falling temperatures and a much more stable airmass engulfing the entire OHV through the day. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune specific timing of storms.

Beyond this point, an area of high pressure will settle overhead, resulting in a much more stable pattern to close the week and head through the weekend. Expect sunshine to return and another quick warm-up to get underway during this period. Highs will zoom back into the 60s next weekend.

Looking ahead, we’ll need to monitor the threat of another potential strong-severe storm window during the early to middle stages of next week. Far too early for specifics, but similar ingredients appear in play which isn’t shocking given the ‘mean’ upper air pattern shown to open this post. We also want to reiterate the above to well above average precipitation expected throughout meteorological spring. Image 3 above highlights the wet look over the upcoming couple weeks.

Upcoming Storm Dates to keep an eye on:

  • 02.26 – 02.27
  • 03.03 – 03.05

*10-day rainfall projection: 1.25″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-45/

Feb 20

Evening VIDEO: Mild Pattern Comes With Heavy Rain/ Storm Risk In The Days (And Weeks) Ahead…

Updated 02.20.24 @ 6:22p With the exception of a couple cooler (can’t even call it “cold” by late February/ early March standards) days, the pattern over the upcoming couple weeks…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-video-mild-pattern-comes-with-heavy-rain-storm-risk-in-the-days-and-weeks-ahead/

Oct 21

The Pending Halloween Pattern Transition And Initial Taste Of Winter…

Updated 10.21.23 @ 7:34a

The upcoming week will feature a pattern shift, albeit a transitional one, that will drive unseasonably warm temperatures north into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This will be on the heels of the first widespread frost of the season Monday morning. Ah, Indian summer at its finest.

A couple of disturbances will try to make inroads into this ridge mid and late week, but will likely struggle in providing much in the way of precipitation or cooler air initially. As we push into the latter part of next week and the Halloween weekend, a larger storm system is anticipated to move east out of the Plains region. This storm will likely deliver the first widespread winter impacts (outside of the mountains of course) of the fall season.

Specifics will be fine tuned as we get closer, but we expect a widespread rain (perhaps a clap of thunder) here next weekend followed by sharply colder weather prior to Halloween, itself.

We’re left with a much different pattern to open November. This is the type regime that will likely lead to the first lake effect snow in the snow belt, drive the 1st widespread freeze into the Ohio Valley, and result in highs in the 40s in the wake of the frontal passage.

Farmers and those with ag interests, we’d suggest wrapping up harvest 23 efforts by mid next week if at all possible. Conditions will certainly become harsher and less favorable by next weekend. More to come…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-pending-halloween-pattern-transition-and-initial-taste-of-winter/

Mar 21

VIDEO: Flood Event Looms For The Southern Ohio Valley Friday Into Saturday…

Updated 03.21.23 @ 6:55a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-flood-event-looms-for-the-southern-ohio-valley-friday-into-saturday/

Jun 14

Weekly Severe And #AGwx Outlook…

Updated 06.14.22 @ 7:33a

After getting beaten down this weekend, the upper ridge will flex it’s muscle yet again next week, significantly influencing our pattern.
Widespread above normal temperatures can be expected given the 500mb pattern above from the Plains into the Southeast and up into the Great Lakes.
Widespread drier than normal conditions are anticipated from the Plains, Southeast, and up into the Ohio Valley as the ridge dominates.

Forecast Period: 06.14.22 through 06.24.22

A cold front will slide through the area Thursday with the potential of a widely scattered shower or storm. The bigger story will be a significant reduction of heat and humidity as we close out the work week and head through the weekend. After dealing with heat indices in the 105º+ range today and Wednesday, lows that drop back into the 50s this weekend sure will feel nice. After Thursday, dry conditions should dominate through the weekend.

The upper ridge will then expand northeast once again as we head into the new work week. You know what this means, oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Like this week, the most oppressive conditions come in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame before another cold front returns us to cooler, more seasonal temperatures next weekend. Get the idea that we’re locked into a “transitional” pattern for the foreseeable future?

From a rainfall perspective, we’re in that time of year where it’s all but impossible to predict rainfall amounts down to a specific backyard (case in point yesterday where many north and eastern Indianapolis ‘burbs clocked in a quick 2″+, while others on the south and west side didn’t see a drop of rain). From an overall perspective, rainfall amounts will run well below normal over the next 7-10 days. We will keep an eye on storm clusters that may round the periphery of the upper ridge early next week, and these could influence our weather Monday into Tuesday (similar to what we dealt with yesterday).

As we look beyond the 10 day period, the ‘mean’ upper pattern should feature the ridge pulling back west and placing our immediate region into a northwesterly flow aloft to close the month of June. This should translate to relatively wetter, cooler times.

10-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ to 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-severe-and-agwx-outlook-2/