Category: AG Report

May 30

Weekly #AGwx And Severe Weather Outlook: Tracking 2 Cold Fronts This Week…

Updated 05.30.22 @ 8a

With the official “unofficial” 🙂 start to summer upon us, it’s time we start to once again produce our weekly #AGwx reports. Each week, these updates will focus on the overall temperature and precipitation pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days, along with bigger severe weather or tropical items of note when needed.

The upcoming 10 days will continue to feature a very transient pattern, locally.
Overall, temperatures will average close to seasonal norms when all totaled up over the upcoming 10 days, but the way in which we get to this point will feature plenty of “ups and downs,” relative to average.
Precipitation will run very close or just slightly below normal values during the time period.

Forecast Period: 05.30.22 through 06.09.22

Our weather pattern will start off very quiet as high pressure continues to dominate. We’ll notice a bump in humidity values daily leading up to a frontal passage Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. This front will deliver scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Mid West and Ohio Valley Wednesday. While there could be a couple of stronger storms, the severe aspect of this system is expected to be greatly diminished when compared to what our neighbors in the northern Plains and upper Mid West will see over the next couple of days.

The frontal system will pass through rather quickly and we’ll get back to a much less humid, cooler airmass Thursday, continuing into the first half of the weekend. That’s when we’ll begin to track system #2 with eyes on our immediate area Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for the 2nd half of the weekend, but it won’t rain the entire time. This will likely set the stage for a more active period to close out the 10 day as a persistent southwesterly air flow dominates.

10-day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ to 2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-severe-weather-outlook-tracking-2-cold-fronts-this-week/

May 03

Going Back-To-Back; Still Looking To Dry Things Out This Weekend. Pattern Change On Deck Mid-Month?

Updated 05.03.22 @ 7:37a

Rain and embedded thunder is widespread across the state this morning.

Most of the morning round of rain and storms will end from southwest to northeast (may linger through a good chunk of the day across northern parts of the state) by late morning. Should we work any sort of sunshine into the mix, that will only further aid in destabilizing the local atmosphere for what will likely be a 2nd round of storms this afternoon into the early evening hours.

High resolution guidance shows this 2nd round of storms firing up around 2 to the 3 o’clock. A few of these could become strong to severe, especially from Indianapolis and points east.

Thankfully, things will quieten down quickly come evening. Most, if not all, of the storms should be to our east by 8p. That will then set the stage for a much more pleasant day Wednesday, complete with sunshine.

Enjoy it as our next storm system will arrive quickly Thursday. After a bit of sun to start our day, clouds will quickly increase and showers and thunderstorms will follow by afternoon. As low pressure traverses the Ohio Valley, unsettled weather will persist Friday.

A drier and cooler air mass will work in here for the weekend. By that time, additional rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ can be expected across many central IN communities.

Saturday will feature dry conditions and improving skies as we progress through the day, complete with a northeast breeze. Dry conditions should also remain in place for Mother’s Day.

Longing for a quieter, more pleasant pattern? You may be in luck as we rumble into mid-May. An upper level ridge is expected to expand across the region which will go a long way in helping provide a stretch of drier and significantly warmer weather. In fact, we should see a “taste” of summer towards the early and middle parts of next week. Hang in there, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/going-back-to-back-still-looking-to-dry-things-out-this-weekend-pattern-change-on-deck-mid-month/

Mar 26

Strong Storm Potential Midweek; Cold, Wintry Conditions Reinforce Themselves Next Weekend…

Updated 03.26.22 @ 8:45a

Some northern Indianapolis suburbs are waking up to more than a coating of snow this morning (have reports of 1″ to 2″ in and around Fishers this morning). Across other parts of the area, snow didn’t accumulate much more than a dusting, but all of the area has gotten in on the late season snow “excitement” (at least seeing it fall) between last night and early Saturday morning.

As we progress through the day, drier air will take hold and help put an end to the localized snow squalls. Skies will clear tonight and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to fall into the middle 20s. If that’s not cold enough, Monday morning should feature low temperatures between 20° and 22° for most, especially outside of the immediate metro.

Forecast low temperatures Monday morning

The new work week will open with sunshine before clouds increase late Monday and into Tuesday. Light rain will be fast to follow.

After a break in the action Wednesday morning, temperatures will briefly spike into the lower 70s by afternoon, courtesy of a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Our attention by this time will shift to the west as an expanding area of rain and thunderstorms approaches for Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Side note: I wouldn’t be surprised if the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) eventually puts at least southern portions of the state in a risk of severe weather Wednesday (focused on evening into the nighttime hours). We’ll monitor that moving forward.

The front will quickly sweep through the state Thursday morning, allowing temperatures to fall through the day Thursday. In fact, temperatures will likely once again grow cold enough to allow wrap around rain to begin mixing with snow Thursday evening. Friday will likely feature scattered snow showers with temperatures struggling to make it out of the 30s for highs. Additional hard freezes are on deck next weekend (20s at night).

Snow will once again fly across the region late next week

The pattern beyond next weekend continues to look colder than normal into the 10-15 day period. As long as that NAO remains negative, we won’t get excited for “stick and hold” spring conditions anytime soon…

April 5th-10th is expected to continue the cool (to colder) than normal theme.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/strong-storm-potential-midweek-cold-wintry-conditions-reinforce-themselves-next-weekend/

Oct 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.16.21 @ 8:10a

The upcoming 7-day will feature a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard and a new trough pushing into the West. In between, transitional ridging will take place through the central.
Above average temperatures will be found across the northern tier with below normal air strung across the south.
Most of the country can expect below normal precipitation this week. The exception being northern New England and the far PAC NW.
We forecast between 0.10″ and 0.20″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period. That will be associated with a low pressure system and associated cold front Thursday.

Forecast Period: 10.16.21 through 10.23.21

A true fall cold front blew through the region during the overnight. You can certainly feel the difference out the door this morning as northwest winds blow the chilly, much drier air into the region. Highs today will struggle to crack the 60° mark. “Sweater weather, anyone?!” We’ll prep for the first round of patchy frost in outlying areas by Sunday morning as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s, winds go calm, and skies are clear.

As we head into the new week, much needed dry time can be expected to open things up as high pressure dominates. Look for a string of sunny days and cool, clear nights. This will give the “nudge” needed to ignite what’s otherwise been a delayed and sluggish fall foliage season.

Our next system of note will arrive Thursday in the form of a low pressure system and trailing cold front. Showers are expected to arrive Thursday morning from the west. We’re not talking about impressive rainfall numbers with the front, itself (on the order of 0.10″ to 0.20″ Thursday), but the period heading into next weekend remains in limbo between forecast models duking it out with the wetter GFS and drier European. We’ll see if we can get more agreement over the next day or two.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-7/

Oct 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.10.21 @ 10:14a

The predominant pattern in the week ahead will feature an eastern ridge and western trough.
Temperatures will run well above normal across the East while an early taste of winter will reside across the West.
Rainfall will run well above normal this week from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes along with the northern Plains.
We think most central Indiana rain gauges accumulate between 0.75” and 1.25” in the 7-day period.
We continue to track the potential of strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.

Forecast Period: 10.10.21 through 10.17.21

While the bulk of the forecast period will run well above normal, this will be a much more active 7-day period than we’ve seen of late. The first storm system will approach Monday afternoon. After a warm, breezy, and mostly dry day, a line of storms will move through from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Strong damaging straight line winds appear to be the greatest threat but there will also be the potential of an isolated tornado. We bracket the hours from 2p to 10p for this line of storms to impact the state. Another storm system will move through the area late in the work week with widespread rain and a shot of much cooler, fall-like air as we head into next weekend. Dry conditions should return just in time for the weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-6/